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Going to Hell in a Handbasket, Part 2

by / Monday, 28 February 2011 / Published in Economics, Politics

In Part 1 I shared an exchange with my friend Santiago about my observation that we are entering into a period of negative social mood, and that in the past similar periods have had some dark consequences for humanity.

This has stirred things up quite a bit, don’t you think? (If you haven’t read Part 1, I suggest that you do, including the comments people have posted, and my answers to those comments, which contain a lot of important information.)

By the way, I haven’t shared any of the math involved in wave theory, or the details about the fractal nature of these waves because, though interesting, it would probably put everyone to sleep, and it’s rather complicated. If you really want to go into this more deeply, buy Robert Prechter’s books, or go to socionomics.net.

At any rate, Santiago wasn’t convinced by what I said in my first communication with him (though he seems to be more convinced now that he actually went and read up on the subject). Here is his reply to my original post, and my answer (Santiago, I’m making you famous—I hope you’re happy):

FROM SANTIAGO:

The Socionomic theory is great and Bob Prechter’s predictions have a lot of ground. And of course, whenever we find a theory that makes sense for us we tend to cling to it as THE THING.

We all live in bubbles and as usual we always see others bubbles before we see our own. This happens a lot in my experience with the people in the US, they are so focused in their own history that is very hard for them to see a more wordily perspective without comparing it with what has happened there. Although they tend to think they do.

What you suggest is something that CAN happen, – it would be nice to see some numbers on the probability of it happening – And everybody should research about it, just like everybody should research about the new waves of consciousness that are arising and their impact on society (please don’t confuse this with new age magical thinking). This among many other things creates a new context for the world in which history CAN BUT NOT NECESARILY WILL happen again. To say “just look at history” can be pretty blind sighted.

We haven’t yet developed a unified theory that can completely predict what will happen in the future.

To say that we are moving towards a utopia is as deluded as to say that the end is near.

There are people who say “follow me to utopia” this is very dangerous, there’s also people who say “the end is near” very dangerous as well. But probably the most dangerous are the ones that say “I KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN BEYOND THE SHADOW OF A DOUBT and the rest of you are just plain stupid for not seeing it.”

Like I said, everyone should do their own research and draw their own conclusions, but I think is unhealthy (and naive) to remove all doubt and not leave some space for the possibility of those conclusions being (at least partially) wrong.

 

FROM BILL: I’ll be willing to bet you ANYTHING that some version of what I’m describing IS going to happen. It’s ALREADY happening. Multiple things happen every day, and have been happening for quite a few years, that are predicted by Socionomy, and which (based on what I know about social mood) I predicted would happen–to my wife, my employees, and my friends.

Not a day goes by when someone doesn’t say to me, “You said this would happen three (or whatever) years ago” (regarding something in the news at the time: the debt crisis, the crises in Egypt, Libya, Tunesia, and other Middle Eastern countries, the situation with the public employee unions in Wisconsin, etc.)

This is not a “thing” I’m clinging to. It’s a pattern some very intelligent people have noticed, and which has been studied extensively and backed up with a massive amount of data. Understanding the wave-like nature of changes in social mood has great predictive ability. I’m watching before my eyes, day after day, the unfolding of what this pattern predicts, and I’m using it to predict what is likely to happen as time goes by.

A theory is as good as its predictive ability. This particular theory is incredibly prescient in that regard. Santiago, forgive me for saying this–you are my friend, and I like you–but you don’t know enough about this to comment on it intelligently. Educate yourself and then come back and discuss it with me (during the discussion of Part 1, Santiago did just that, to his credit).

No one can predict exactly what will happen (see my writings on chaos theory, including my recent 3-part post, Breaking Up is Hard to Do for more of an explanation of how these things are governed by probabilities, arranged in a bell curve). Certain things, however, tend to happen (i.e, are more probable) in times of increasingly positive social mood, and other things tend to happen in times of increasingly negative social mood.

The details of exactly what will happen, and how it will happen, are not predictable. Here, though, are a number of things this theory predicted in 2003 as being likely to happen. So far, they all have happened (I could give another list of things that are yet to happen, too. I use this list as partial proof of the predictive power of Socionomy).

The US stock market will lose 50% of its value (it did). Predictions, by the way, based on wave theory, are that it will ultimately lose 90%.

The economy will severely contract and the recovery will be weak. (yep.)

Many bonds will be downgraded (i.e., will be seen by the market as being much more risky). (yep.)

The federal government will place tariffs on steel imports. (yes)

Corporate leaders who were heroes and role models during good times will be vilified and scandals will bedevil the corporate world. (wow has this happened)

Horror movies will increase in number and popularity. Torture will routinely be depicted in movies and on television.

Violent sports such as “ultimate fighting” will increase in popularity. (it has)

Name calling and staunch partisanship will become staples of political commentary. (you might have noticed this)

The US Treasury’s budget surplus will turn into a huge deficit. (boy, has that happened)

Jobs will move out of the US to China, India, and elsewhere. (uh huh)

Religions will fight each other. Hostility will grow between Western countries and radical Muslims.

The US Constitution will be demonized or marginalized by some and staunchly defended by others, creating a highly contentious situation. Both patriotism and anti-government sentiment will grow into powerful emotional forces. (Progressives, Tea Party, etc)

Real estate values will fall (yep–and they aren’t finished)

Debt packages of mortgage backed bonds, credit card debt, or auto loans will become viewed as unworthy investments. (remember that this was predicted BEFORE the mortgage crisis)

Many, if not most, pension plans will fall in value and be unable to provide the promised benefits. (It’s happening right now, with a lot more to come—in fact, an avalanche).

Many banks will fail. (many did last year, many more will this year–largely unreported in the media—google Martin Weiss and start getting some of his free information, or subscribe to his newsletters)

The dollar will increasingly be looked upon as being unworthy for its role as the world’s reserve currency. (definitely happening)

The “rich” will be vilified and their property will be increasingly taxed and seized. (definitely happening)
Unemployment will become a serious problem. (the real unemployment rate is much higher than the government figures say it is)

Countries will adopt numerous trade restrictions, import taxes and other protectionist measures.
(definitely happening—by the way, this raises the price of everything you buy that comes from other countries to supposedly protect businesses in your country)

Consumer confidence will fall to record low levels. (in process of happening)

Affordable housing will become difficult to come by. Family members will increasingly move in with each other. (happening)

A Democrat will be the next US president. (this obviously happened)

Politics will become far more polarized, splintered, and radical. (you may have noticed this)

Social Security in its present form will fail. (Imminent and inevitable)

The US will require internal travel papers. (in the works)

The US will accelerate its tend toward socialism and centralized control. Opposition to that trend will be vigorous. (Exactly what is happening and will continue to happen.)

The Drug War will become more violent and will spill over into the US. (it has)

The US government will ration goods and services, such as gasoline, vaccines, medical care, electricity, water, food, etc. (Either already happening or in the works–plans in place)

The birth rate will fall in the US and other advanced Western countries. (happening)

Religions will become increasingly popular. Religious intolerance will increase.

Belief in magic will increase. (unfortunately, it has—when people can’t explain what is happening, they are more open to non-rational explanations, and more easily hoodwinked by charlatans)

Science will be turned to manipulative or malevolent purposes. (it has been—remember the Nazi medical experiments, or the Tuskegee syphilis experiments in the US, from previous times of negative social mood?)

Environmentalists will become militant and intentionally destructive. (yes)

The US space program will shut down. (no more space shuttle—last flight is happening now)

Conspiracy theories will become plentiful, and more people will believe them. (boy, oh boy, yes)

People will rate the future as increasingly less promising (they do, in every poll)

Race relations will become strained and violent (border problems?)

The suicide rate will go up. (it has)

Mass demonstrations expressing anger with certain social situations will occur (just turn on your TV)

Self help books will change from how to get rich and successful to how to deal with hard times (yes)

Food scares will hit the US (already happening, more to come)

Restaurants will decline in popularity. More people will eat at home. (yes)

Disney will close its NY city theater productions (they haven’t, yet, but they did close their animation division)

Gangsters, pirates, and other outlaws will become popular folk heroes (Pirates of the Caribbean? College pirate parties? Remember the popularity of John Dillinger in the 1930s? The modern-day equivalent is coming.)

Entertainment will feature fewer heroes and more anti-heroes.

Organized labor will grow and become more active and militant (public employee unions)

Believe me, I could go on (and on). Some of you may not be familiar with many of these things unless you follow the news closely and have alternative sources (many of these things are not reported in the mainsteam media). I follow all these areas very closely, and have watched these things unfold. These things are typical of what happens in times of increasingly negative social mood.

The following list contrasts attitudes, behaviors, and emotions in times of positive and negative social mood:

adventurousness/protectionism
alignment/opposition
benevolence/malevolence
clarity/confusion
concord/discord
confidence/fear
constructiveness/ destructiveness
desiring power over nature/desiring power over people
ebullience/depression
embrace of effort/avoidance of effort
happiness/unhappiness

peace/war
inclusion/exclusion
freedom/authoritarianism
interest in love/interest in sex
liberality/restriction
optimism/pessimism
practical thinking/magical thinking
search for joy/search for pleasure
praise/criticism
togetherness/separatism
helping others/harming others

Quite frankly, you’d have to be blind, have a certain agenda, or be intentionally averting your eyes and refusing to pay attention (which I understand, since paying attention to all this stuff IS depressing) to not see that all of this is, indeed unfolding.

I’m not saying this to predict the end of the world or to be negative, or to make you feel bad. I’m not a negative person. I’m a realistic person. If you know what is happening, you’ll be better able to deal with it.

Unfortunately, I think:

The economy is going to get worse. Much worse.

Most debts will never be repaid (which means the lender pays them). This includes public employee pensions, government and municipal bonds, social security, health care entitlements, mortgage debts, and a lot more.

The confidence necessary to cause those who have money to lend it to people or to institutions will plummet, with dire consequences for the economy.

Tensions between all kinds of groups will increase even more than they already have, particularly between Western countries and radical Muslims (who are poised to take over several Middle Eastern countries right now), but also between business and labor, the left and the right, rich and poor, different races, taxpayers and public “servants”, etc. etc.

Socialists and communists (and, probably, at some point, fascists) will gain more and more traction as people search for someone to lead them out of the chaos.

War will eventually come in many places around the world.

There will be severe energy problems—though not from real shortages of energy.

There will be increased violent terrorist attacks, including in the US.

There will be problems with the food supply in many parts of the world. Food riots are already happening in several countries.

There will be epidemics, and the medicines to treat them will be mismanaged and unavailable to many who need them.

There will be a further increase in authoritarianism and centralized, top-down control, and a huge loss of freedom of choice (regarding what you can buy, what you can say, what kind of food you can eat, what car you can drive, when you can use electricity, where you can freely go (across borders? Even to different states in the US?), what you can see online, what kind of entertainment is legal, etc). This one will particularly blindside (and enrage) Americans, who are not used to being regulated and controlled.

Barbaric actions will come to light that will rival (and probably exceed) the barbarism of Hitler, Stalin, Mao and other crazies from the past. (It has already come to light that the US has been shipping suspected terrorists to Egypt and other Middle Eastern countries where their secret police have tortured these prisoners. Worse things will come to light over the next several years.)

Many of these problems and the resulting chaos will be used by people selling utopian ideas to get people to follow them. Huge numbers of people, who are panicking about their situation and see no other choice, will easily be hoodwinked, and will follow these people. You might be one of them and not even know it until it’s too late. This is what happened in the 1930s and 1940s. We remember Hitler based on what we ultimately found out about him. In the beginning he (and Mussolini) were seen as practical problem-solvers.

This will not end well. It never has.

***

But there’s more. As I’m sure you’ll agree, this is a rather depressing topic. Next, in Part 3, I’ll share a post from someone who feels that way about it, and what I said to her.

As for comments about this post, I welcome them. However, please—don’t put words in my mouth and then argue against them. It’s so tiresome. If you have a reasonable question, or have some factual dispute, great. Please, however, learn something about this topic BEFORE ranting about it.

***

I just received this email, which you might find interesting if you’d like to know more about socionomics:

If you attend only one conference this year, this is the one!

The Socionomics Institute holds their first-ever Socionomics Summit in Atlanta on April 16. They’ve kept the registration fee as low as possible: $199 for a FULL day.

Join Robert Prechter, Mood Matters author John Casti, “Twitter mood predicts the stock market” authors Johan Bollen and Huina Mao, billion dollar hedge fund manager Scott Reamer, Minyanville sage Kevin Depew, EWI’s Peter Kendall — just to name a few!

Check out the complete speaker line-up below, or follow this link for full speaker bios and to learn more about this exciting event.

http://www.socionomics.net/education/socionomics-summit/The2011SocionomicsSummitNewHorizonsintheStudyofSocialMood.aspx?code=emsub&tcn=socsumf1102&rcn=socsumf11021

Regards,

The Socionomics Institute

 

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325 Responses to “Going to Hell in a Handbasket, Part 2”

  1. Alan H says :

    Bill,

    These are great posts. I am planning on reading more of the books that you recommend on this subject. What i am wondering is has there been any research as to what the source is of the impulse in the human brain that causes social mood fluctuations? I know math patterns are involved but what/where is the source in us that causes this changing outlook? Is it related to the “ego”?

    On a side note, imagine how powerful one could become if they used this information along with that of how the rest of the mind works to take advantage of societies and control history! Oooops, that must be the conspiracy theorist in me!

    FROM BILL: Social mood is about safety.

  2. Santiago says :

    Thanks for making me famous Bill

    Though I guess with what’s coming it’s better to stay as anonymous as possible, if I become a famous leader I might end up dismembered having each of my limbs in a different continent, and with no money to pay for five funerals due to the collapse of the economy …. maybe your using me as a diversion so people don’t go after you ….. hmmmn ….. you sure have a clever strategic ahead of the times mind :p

    Anyway ….

    I have read Socionomics and it is fascinating though I still think making such over the top predictions with so much certainty is somewhat naive and dangerous.

    For example, I wrote to the guys at Elliotwaves.com asking about their preditcions for South America and they answered (sorry, no monkeys on the answer)

    “We have yet to do a full-scale study involving South America in The Socionomist. But Steve Hochberg and Pete Kendall write about the BRIC countries–which includes Brazil– from an Elliott wave and socionomic perspective every so often in their publication, The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. They wrote about the BRICs most recently in February of last year, saying,

    “One shared BRIC trait that is seldom talked about is the component countries’ tumultuous political and economic histories. The character of these pasts should return with the bear market. Making money was the focus in the 1990s and part of the 2000s. As the BRICs devolve back into conflict and disorder, self-preservation will become the dominant social concern.”

    The theory is great but as I said before, the variables now are much more complex due to the interconnectedness of the globe. So the predictions for one region will be affected by all the other regions, and as far as I know social mood varies all over the world. AND imagine predicting this without data as important as the whole South American region – and probably other regions – (They only refer to Brazil)

    Any way, you still know much more than me about this and I’m interested in learning so I have another question.

    Social mood follows an endogenous pattern with no feed back from the outside world (hence it’s predictable value), the herd moves form positive to negative no matter what’s going on. This means that the world might be turning to shit and still people can be really happy, or that people can be angry and scared even if everything around them is sailing smoothly.

    Obviously if this happens to the herd it also has to happen on an individual level. So would you say that someone can loose everything but if he’s on a positive mood trend he won’t care much about it ? Or the opposite, I might win the lotto and still feel like throwing over the government just because I’m on a negative trend ?

    FROM BILL: What do you want from me? A prediction?

  3. Christopher says :

    HELL IN A HAND BASKET – PART 2

    For what it’s worth. I’m chiming back in, because I feel the need to contribute further. Sorry for the book. I may be controversial to some of you, so I give fair warning here, before you read. The things I will speak of today are not for the weak-at-heart or non-objectively optimistic person. I am not targeting anyone or slighting anyone for their beliefs or opinions. You are free to have and maintain them. In part 1, I read a few posts that were clearly not aware of the fact that socionomics is not simply a new hypothesis or theory.

    I also want to say that I am not speaking for Bill as he is a lot smarter than me. However, I do have extensive experience on this topic. I am a certified Elliott Wave Analyst and have been engaged in Socionomic studies for quite some time. Bill, I hope you don’t mind. I’m just corroborating your information in my own way. At the end, I throw in a piece of my own. I feel I need to speak about it.

    Socionomics really got rolling and became more of a proven science with the deeper understanding and observations of results captured with Elliott Wave analysis. It is not simply conjecture. It is fact. It is data that can be tracked and proven, as Bill has stated. Granted, there is a long way to go, but it is real, right now. For those unaware of this, please refer to Elliott Wave International as well as the Socionomics Institute and read Robert Prechter and study the findings.

    It’s all in the chart. Social mood, that is. And that chart, in coordination with time, paints pictures that describe mood, along with physical world actions that were and are being performed at those times, i.e. behaviors. These financial charts form patterns of likeness, not exactness that repeat in nature, over time. THAT, is a fractal. In the case of stock charts, a repeating pattern in nature that is governed and driven by us, people.

    So, clearly, our moods, drive the price action. As intelligent beings, seeing the price action, in-turn, perpetuates the current mood to make it better or worse, i.e. bull or bear, i.e. a definite direction, and eventually drives it to an extreme condition where it will change or reverse that direction. It’s usually an extreme point that when reached, indicates a widespread, cumulative opinion that indicates a top or bottom is at hand. The underlying factor for the change in direction is that there are no more participants to drive it further, so it changes direction. We are pretty predictable as it turns out.

    And make no mistake, we can be extreme. Remember NASDAQ 5000? It was the most extreme financial mania in history. No matter how much we have grown technologically, we are still human and are driven by emotion. As humans, we have shown over time that we are greedy, needy, selfish, and many other things that we try to stuff away from everyday points of pervasive view as to interact in society and appear civil and good. I think most of us have good intentions, a great deal of the time. That is, until we don’t get what we want, need or are severely accustomed to. Sometimes these needs and wants extend into desperation. Driven by need, want and sometimes desperation, under the hood, the beast is brewing.

    When not satisfied and/or the threat of loss comes to the fore, we can be capable of incredible violence and unfathomable behavior, like the barbarians were. For that matter, at much closer times in history to right now, rather than barbaric ages.

    Just look at history as Bill has pointed out in the 30’s and 40’s or 60’s and 70’s. If you look at it for real, you can see it. Deplorable acts, across all of time. Even today. Maybe not in our little spoiled NASDAQ world, but surely in other nations. Genocide. Even the beginnings of such behavior and talk in Libya within days of eruption. All out of desperation from a leader that does want to lose what he had. It is an extreme situation that is reversing and that brings about chaos. A reordering. Mood is changing. And when that occurs on this scale, people do not behave civilized. Such situations could be approaching our corner of the world soon and the reactions and behaviors will be no different. They will be violent.

    Along with unnatural, created disasters, like this financial one, and terrorism, for instance, across time we have encountered natural disasters such as the ones on the rise everywhere in the form of earthquakes, tsunami’s, viruses, droughts etc. These contribute significantly to the demise of societies that were deemed and believed to be thought indestructible, for whatever fallacy, false notion or reasoning. Usually a lack of humility. We think we are in control, but we are not. Right now, we are in the midst of the early stages of a breaking down of society as we know it because it has become too complex to maintain as it is.

    I am not a scientist, I am a software engineer, but have studied much smarter people than myself. I learn from them. A professor from a prominent university wrote about it as the breaking down of a complex society because we cannot feed the monster anymore. Much less grow it, we cannot maintain it. Think about the energy, fuel and immense resources needed every day to keep this going. The resources may be in the Earth to obtain, as Bill has stated, but finding them is getting harder, taking longer and hence, becoming more expensive to do so.

    We are tired, as a race, and we will regress. In Elliott Theory, most of the combinations of most of the complexities of the world are encompassed in a single chart, by its participants, by way of their perspectives, knowledge and doings. The DOW Jones Industrial average is likely the king of them all right now. There are a significant number of players in this world-leading market average and the more there are, the clearer the wave count. It is the barometer of social mood.

    Many other global indices all paint similar pictures. Albeit their position in time and the resulting outcomes vary, in time and proportion. Right now the DJIA looks ok, but it is actually a false representation of the truth. In Elliott theory you would learn that its current run upward is MEANT to fool you. It will suck in every last willing soul that wants to believe and then implode. It’s getting very close. The time is nigh. It’s a wave 2, cunning in its nature, and meant to elude you by false presentations from the media, the institutional world, our government etc.

    The underlying fundamentals are deteriorating. Do you really believe the bank failures and collapse of prominent, multi-decade iconic financial institutions in a matter of months back in 2008-09 were the end of this?. No. It was the manifestation of the deepness of the problem at hand. In Elliott terms, it was wave 1 down of a large scale C wave of super-cycle degree. It’s big. Wave 3 and 5 down are yet to come and wave 3 will make wave 1 look tame. Remember that wave 1 shaved 7500 points off the DOW in a matter of months. It took many years to get there, but fell quickly.

    Greed and fear, are the drivers. Fear, the more powerful one. Since the debacle occurred, we have been in a wave 2 back up, right on track, as a human race full of potential, fight and oh yes, denial, would print it on the chart. Predictably. But, it is only a wave of HOPE. You have to give credit to the good of it in us as well. We want to HOPE. We need to. We want to work it out. But nature itself is in charge now. It will be the deciding judge and nothing we do can stop it.

    It’s the aftermath of our many previously made BAD decisions, over decades, based in greed, selfishness and unrealistic expectations for sustained, non-normal performance. We want the NASDAQ 5000 feelings to live forever. They cannot. We want million dollar homes that are really worth $200,000. The FED, money injection, all of it, empty answers and what caused the problem in the first place. We all needed big screen TV’s and SUV’s. Now it’s iPhones and iPads and other gadgets. We had to charge it, remember? And we still are, for the most part.

    The collapse will be the result of the collective actions on this Earth that cannot be reversed now. Right now, it is close to manifesting the penalty that will be paid. Unfortunately, it is severe. Our world is heading downward. Just look around you and pay attention to the many examples Bill gave you that are facts. There are tensions building. Anyone of which could start the spiral. I know I was making $100k 15 years ago and now I’m lucky to get a job at all for $60k. Yet everything else has rocketed upwards with inflation.

    We are digressing. We are going backwards and falling in lifestyle and the pressures become greater and greater everyday to just maintain what we have. In the end, deflation will be the killer. There will be a lack of demand and prices will spiral. I am not an expert on deflation, but you could read Robert Prechter, who is an expert, at Elliottwave.com.

    In the end, on this one, it all comes down to DEBT. The world is basically one large scale IOU. The defaults in Europe are a precursor to much larger defaults that will affect the entire machine. These are COUNTRIES defaulting, not corporations or small businesses or individuals. Eventually China and Japan will stop buying our debt. They are financing us and our insatiable appetite for goods and gadgets.

    Our deficit is clear. We have sold our souls. This engine, is leaking oil and smoking. But we keep on driving it hard at 140 mph and performing 9G turns that are warping our minds into another spectrum of expectations. The tires are worn and will blow on one of these high speed turns. No seatbelt either.

    The machine, as I have described as a high performance automobile, needs repair from the inside out. We don’t have the time or the will to stop and fix it correctly for fear someone may pass us by. The pace is unsustainable. We just throw another quart of oil in and keep cruising on thin rubber. This engine will blow eventually. It will cease to run.

    I’m being metaphorical. I’m trying to make it clear. The problem is debt and a worn out, tired race, us, driving recklessly and pushing the envelope in every way. Fiat currencies, which are really worthless paper, just a promissory note, which I have traded for 7 years, are going to war with each other and will probably go away. Nations will probably isolate themselves for protectionist purposes and the scene will change. Not much brotherly love will flow.

    It’s setting up. There will be separation, not integration. Not in a bear market like this one. Embargos, trade sanctions and eventually, wars, over resources and such. It’s brewing. We are so tied together that one major cog going down will affect everything else. Just pull one major lynch pin. The domino effect. The human race, for the first time in history is ALL interconnected and leaning on one another. That is why this will be the great-great depression. It is global this time, not national.

    This one is big. It is historical. It will make the great depression look like child’s play. And you will fear for your life in numerous ways, I hate to say it. The brutal nature of man will arrive on the scene. The cloak of civility will come off. Mind you, this will take time, but it will build in severity as it progresses. Look at how people acted in New Orleans with 2 days of strife during hurricane Katrina over water. They were shooting at the police and stealing everything in sight. THAT, is human nature. That was just a touch of it and with a small crowd in relative terms.

    The theme to observe, survival, at any and all costs. Kill or be killed is true. People will be so different from the way they are now, it will stun you. Survival will be paramount in this. So yes, storing some food and having cash on hand as Bill has mentioned, is important. In the latter stages there will probably be runs on the banks so you better get it ahead of time. The buck may even be worthless or revalued by the government at that point. Society will break down. Police and law enforcement will not be maintained because of budget cuts. It’ll be fend for yourself. Martial law is a probability. But guaranteed, people will be out of control.

    So many issues. It’s deep. But it will be brutal. Make no mistake. And in this particular setting and scene with THIS wave count, it will probably come like a snare in the night. Suddenly. It will be drastic. If the wave count is what we think it is, there is no good ending. The next 5 years will be down, hard, straight into depression. There will be massive suffering.

    It’s purely technical. No wishes or wants or biases. That is the beauty of Elliott wave. It is objective. Just the truth. The implications of this falling financial scene as it prints the chart, leads you to project the socionomic outcome of it based on the history of human nature and behavior we already know. It will repeat. Some of it is not good. In-fact, it is brutal.

    This is at the highest degree ever recorded. It is a known entity how people behave in desperate times. The aftermath, or behaviors based on THIS price action, will be stunning to see. I can only imagine what will set it off. It’s a perfect financial storm, as another one my favorites, Jim Puplava, at Financial Sense would tell you.

    There are many things in parallel that will occur. It’s setting up and gathering power. It’s a winding up process for a turbulent unwinding of debt. It’s building pressure. The longer we put it off, which we are trying to do at all costs, the worse it will be. Like blowing air into a balloon until it finally bursts in fury, completely reorganizing the material it once was. It’s pieces now, on the floor. Scattered.

    I don’t want this. I don’t wish this. I’m not a doomsayer or a negative person. I’m not a genius or claim to be. I’m just a computer scientist that has researched this for 12 years. A normal, good person. So please don’t attack me for my opinion. That is all it is. In the end, I know nothing. But I think I do. My knowledge is only based on much smarter people than me. I am a student. An objective one.

    None of us KNOW the future. We can only project it based on evidence using intellect. I am just accepting what is setting up from an objective standpoint based on historical and current information. I have studied it and can see it is real from the historical and current data. Hell in a hand basket is about right. It will feel like hell on Earth. I don’t think we can stop it.

    I hope and pray that we can resolve it in a fashion that limits suffering. But I have a feeling there will be several crazy, power-hungry leaders in the world that will make it impossible. We will not get along. There is a great philosophical divide. A dichotomy of sorts.

    Have you ever heard of the tribulation? Interesting to think about. That is what THIS wave count is proportionate to. It’s biblical. It’s a special place in time. It’s not one of those times where it will rebound easily or quickly. It’s 80 years of progress since the great depression that is being corrected so we can prepare to grow again. And we will. But right now, we need to take a rest, as a race, and regroup.

    This is called chaos. A reordering. The philosophies and practices employed today will be redesigned to build a better, more sustainable society. One probably void of so much greed and monopolization. Have you noticed that power is being more and more centralized in every way? This is no government by the people, for the people. No way.

    I’d say maintain faith in goodness, wrapped inside of objectivity. Be good. There is a higher power you will answer to. This is physical Earth. Not Heaven. Give love when possible. Help others when you can. But be objective and understand what you are up against. Be ready to defend yourself, your loved ones and your possessions, all while helping the correct people at the same time. Be clear. It just takes an honest, clear vision and understanding of our history and the nature of the beast called mankind, to project this scene of madness that will unfold.

    Now, this may be on the edge and may be controversial to you, but I must mention it. This philosophy is at the root of my soul in what I feel will happen as this unfolds. I did not learn this from anyone, it is from me and my studies alone. My own feelings, projections and insights. It is happening today in Africa.

    I will say this. Men, take heed. Take care of your women and children and watch over them closely as I believe this will be a severe and scary time for the female gender in particular. They may need to reorganize and perhaps modify their thoughts and behaviors as to become, or least appear, to be more humbled during this time of physical atrocity’s I can see coming. They will be reminded in a brutal way of the PHYSICAL power which man truly carries over woman. It has been forgotten and subdued in today’s world, by women, in their own hearts and minds, in a myriad of ways.

    Just watch the TV commercials of today. Women are in control, or appear to be. Physical and lawless, are the keywords here. All rules and good behaviors erased away. Study men in a barbaric setting. A lawless setting. There is no end to what they will do when they do not fear penalty for it. They will take what they want. And we all know what men want most. This is logical thinking and projection. Like I said, it is happening in places like South Sudan, Rwanda and Darfur. The figures I have heard are 7 of 10 women raped and living in fear, daily, because there are no laws or penalties to stop these barbaric entities from these violent perpetrations.

    Please, think about this, prepare your mind slowly, for it is real. Man is the same everywhere you go, under the circumstances we are speaking of. No, not all men, certainly not, but enough of them will be to make you worry and think. I would ask women, if these times come, to stay close to your man and honor him for his protection of you. You will need him, like never before. There IS a difference in us as men and women. One all but forgotten. A difference in wants, needs and the new, possibly brutal behaviors of how they will be attained in this new setting, should it arrive..

    Last of all, but certainly not least, don’t forget to pray.

    FROM BILL: Well, folks. There you have it. Pretty grim. I’ve been trying to get across, through this blog, the idea that there is no escape from impermanence and cause and effect for some time now. Elliott Wave is an elegant description of how cause and effect works. Many of you just looked at what I have been saying in a theoretical manner, without chunking it down to specifics. What Christopher has said chunks it down to specifics. This is forgivable, because most people do not pay attention to what is happening in the world the way I do. It takes a lot of time and, these days, a strong stomach.

    As Christopher said, we are now near the top of a wave 2, which is the rebound from the first wave down after the huge (historic) top in positive social mood that ended in about 2000. That particular up-move in social mood started about the time of the American Revolution. When social mood is going up, the up moves (called impulse waves) are 5-wave moves (up, down, up, down, up) and the corrective waves that follow are 3-wave moves (down, up, down). When the overall direction is down, the impulse moves (5-wave moves) are down and the corrective waves (3-wave moves) are up.

    Each of these waves is further subdivided in the same way, which is what we mean when we say that the waves are fractal in nature–something easier to see graphically than to get through a textual description. Google Elliot Wave or socionomics and you can see the pictures for yourself.

    Christopher may correct me on this but I would say that wave one of the up move that began with the American Revolution ended with the Panic of 1837, which was the beginning of wave 2 and lasted through the American Civil War. Wave three ended with the 1929 stock market crash, which began wave 4–the depression, WW2, etc. Wave 5 began at the end of te 1940s and peaked in 2000.

    With that top, the main direction of social move, on what the Elliott Wave people call a Grand Super-Cycle degree (which is a huge, multi-hundred year-sized wave), changed. Right now we’re in a pattern where the first wave was down, ending with the financial meltdown of ’07-’08. Christopher knows more than I do about the nuts and bolts of this, but that was approximately the bottom of the first wave down. Since then, we’ve been in a corrective wave 2. Corrective wave 2’s are characterized by a return of hope–hope that the good times will return, as they always did after each corrective wave when the direction was up. In fact, the amount of hope in wave 2 generally exceeds that of the previous top (the last part of the 1990s–the “NASDAQ 5000” Christopher was talking about).

    That’s where we are now, though with what’s going on in the Middle East, in Wisconsin (and in a lot of other places, many of which aren’t even discussed in the mainstream media) you can feel the foundation beginning to crack. At some point, probably soon, the third wave down will begin. It may have already begun.

    Third waves, when they are down-waves, erase hope (they create tremendous ebullience and feelings of “everything is possible” when they are up-waves–in wave three between 1870 and 1914 the industial revolution happened, medicine made great strides, as did science, the autompbile, radio, television, the telephone and other things were invented, railroads connected the East and West, people learned to fly, people got indoor plumbing, etc, etc).

    Third waves make believers of people. As this third wave gets underway, all doubt that we ARE going to Hell in a handbasket will be erased. And, as that happens, recriminations and searches for scapegoats will increase, as will the demogoguing. And, as Christopher is warning, I suspect there will be civil violence. Eventually, third waves down end in major wars.

  4. Chris M says :

    Dear Bill,

    I recognized at some point listening to a NLP audiobook how you (presumably) incorporated NLP ideas into your LPIP courses. Recently it hit me that you are a human being that actually has access to the same information as anyone else (for the most part) and actually has to ‘sit down and try to make sense of it’ like any human being.
    It seems like your ability to predict the future has been a source of people’s value in you for some time now. Now you share this, I both feel you are a valuable ongoing resource (I suppose there is something safe about that) and that it’s important you continue to exist. I also acknowledge that you may not be as valuable to people if people more commonly know of socionomics – you loose one of your ‘special skills’. I suppose I want you to be ongoingly useful. It seems to me you are a compilation of the zen way, salesman, realist & perhaps somethings else. I fear you may have reached the end of your rope. How many more colored handkerchiefs can you pull from your cuff? It seems you have helped many people ‘get what they want’.

    What do YOU want from US Bill?

    (I say us, I don’t assume to speak for other people however, it’s more for dramatic effect.)

    – Chris M
    (Still a novice)

    FROM BILL: I just want you to become as aware as possible. As things go from the frying pan to the fire, the only hope will be those with awareness and compassion.

  5. Paula says :

    15yrs of therapy undone in a couple of blog posts (*squirts cream directly into mouth).

    I’m scared.

    FROM BILL: Rightly so. Being a human being has never been easy. It’s only been during our lifetime, which happened to coincide with a huge top of positive social mood, that life because relatively cushy, at least for those of us in first-world countries. All you can do at this point is be aware, prepare, and love those around you. And, stop supporting the people who continue to try to centralize power in their hands, supposedly for your own good.

    Life goes on, and what is being said here doesn’t mean you can’t live a good life. It just means that the rules are changing.

  6. David massoglia says :

    Bill,
    I believe the Elliott Wave is a valid theory. In fact I use it almost exclusively for my investment. The only quibble I have is that Bob Prechter has a terrible long term record of investment predictions. The stock market will not go down 90 percent because his wave count is wrong. Gold will also soar. Bob does not use an objective method. An objective method has been developed by Tony Caldaro. His free web site has his objective count. Google Elliott wave lives on. I have been trained by Tony and his method includes tenets that Prechter does not use but are valid. Please check for yourself.

    FROM BILL: Prechter has been pretty good at forecasting what will happen, but not so good at when it will happen.

  7. Santiago says :

    I want to be more clear about the theory, that’s why I was wandering if it also applies to individuals. The part of it that is hard for me is the fact that there is no feedback loop with external circumstances.

    That people’s moods don’t depend at all on what happens externally, that they just feel negative or positive according to this internal patterns which come in waves without any external cause. You said that you predicted things about your wife and friends, this would be like using the theory to predict the mood no only of herds but also of individuals ?

    Did I misunderstood ?

    FROM BILL: I don’t think you can use this to predict individual behavior. You can, though, predict that in a crowd of people MOST of them will act in accordance with the prevailing social mood. You could express it in a bell curve, with most people in the bulge in the center, those at the right edge expressing the prevailing social mood more strongly, and those at the left edge expressing it to a lesser degree.

  8. John says :

    Way to go Bill. Keeps getting better. All true and all irrelevant. I bet the Pharaohs the Romans, Catholic Church, European empires, USA Russia and China, and every one else has said the same. As their civilization hit the wall they would voice loudly and vigorously that when “our civilization, political system collapses it will be the end of the world.” In there view,

    The end of their world looked near, but never was, something replaced it.. It evolved and got better. How would you like the global securities markets governed by the rules set for the great tulip bubble . See not perfect but much better

    Lets not get hung up about the collapse and start looking forward to what will replace it.

    That seems the pattern over the last 6000 years and I see no reason why this one will be any different.

    The ones I feel sorry for are the ones not on holosync as their threshold of frustration and acceptance of change may not be high enough to handle the change, they sadly will perish.. Us on the tapes will see all with great scence of indifference and go on with our day lives.

    Sell more packages Bill the world needs you more than ever.l

    FROM BILL: At some point social mood will turn up, but it won’t be for quite some time. Though there will be up moves and down moves, the overall trend is down, and will be for a LONG time.

    And, though things will turn out okay–EVENTUALLY, this isn’t irrelevant for those who will have to go through it, just as WW2 wasn’t irrelevant for those who experienced it, even though the world eventually improved to a situation better than it was before that war.

  9. Dave says :

    Has / will / any of the things being discussed come to pass?

    Maybe.

    In a system of infinite potential possibilities, what is NOT possible?

    Can we ever understand the system?

    Maybe.

    Do we want to or more importantly do we need to?

    Maybe not.

    Create your own ‘reality’, whatever that is… just make it what you want it to be.

    In my opinion, one of the biggest deceivers of all is ‘being realistic’.

    My preference is to look for and find the good in the World, and in my reality, that is what happens. Wonderful!

    Dave

    FROM BILL: You don’t create your own reality. You create four things, but only if you are aware enough to see how you create them: 1) how you feel, 2) how you behave, 3) which people and situations you attract or become attracted to, and 4) what meanings you assign to what happens.

    The rest you don’t have control over, and do not create. Looking on the bright side is always more resourceful, but ignoring the realities we face is just plain idiotic. Doing so is like ignoring a speeding car bearing down on you. Look on the bright side–and get out of the street.

  10. When the moon is in the Seventh House
    And Jupiter aligns with Mars
    Then peace will guide the planets
    And love will steer the stars

    This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius
    The Age of Aquarius
    Aquarius! Aquarius!

    Harmony and understanding
    Sympathy and trust abounding
    No more falsehoods or derisions
    Golden living dreams of visions
    Mystic crystal revelation
    And the mind’s true liberation
    Aquarius! Aquarius!

    When the moon is in the Seventh House
    And Jupiter aligns with Mars
    Then peace will guide the planets
    And love will steer the stars

    This is the dawning of the Age of Aquarius
    The Age of Aquarius
    Aquarius! Aquarius!

    (Composed by James Rado, Gerome Ragni, and Galt MacDermot)

    FROM BILL: Just the salve we needed for our wounded hearts!

  11. In contemplation says :

    In regards to social mood my understandings would lead me to believe that this theory applies positivity and negativity as the social distortions of the wave oscillating around equilibrium. By observing actions in a given time period and looking as objectively as is subjectively possible at events that have taken place, you can predict likely outcomes or occurrences to take place during one distortion or the other.

    I think wave theory in this regard could be (and most likely already is when in proper practice) an incredibly useful predictive tool if for no other reason then most are instinctively impacted by wave theory in reasoning whether they recognize it or not. Unless one’s mood rests at equilibrium at all times (not sure who would be included in this group), they will undoubtedly oscillate between negativity and positivity, and the more unaware one is of this, the more they will be impacted by its predictive power in reasoning. The more we reject it, the more we become it.

    It seems to me herd mentality is a symptom of unexamined reasoning arising within an individual, most of us are impacted by conditions unbeknownst to us, and thus are unable to see the limits placed on our ability to reason. What separates us from the rest of nature as far as we’ve been able to surmise is that we have the ability to become self-aware and in that, rise above both the self-allowed limitations and perceived structural limitations of nature that keep the manifestation in tact. I believe in a higher form (for lack of better terms) of reason functioning uninhibited by the bondage of conditional limitation.

    I don’t believe we are destined to forever be stuck in a repetitive cycle, oscillating between 2 sides of the same line of neutrality, but have the ability to reason in a way that reduces the impact of the oscillations bringing consciousness in concert with nature in a way that makes the manifestation seem harmonious rather than just predictably chaotic. I think we are ushering in a sharp rise in the impact of this reasoning power and its beginning to manifest on a larger level then we have recorded in our narrow scope of time. Thus I see more hope then doom, even in a time where we seem to be socially sliding further into the trough of negativity.

    FROM BILL: You lost me.

  12. Gay Hendricks says :

    Brilliant, sobering piece, Bill. I’ve been a big Prechter fan since back in the 80s. One thing I missed was where these predictions were first made. Is there a particular document you were referring to when you wrote this?:
    …are a number of things this theory predicted in 2003 as being likely to happen.
    Keep up the good work!
    Gay

    FROM BILL: I’ll scan it and email it to you.

  13. Jerry Dechant says :

    I guess this movie doesn’t have a happy ending, at least not as you’ve presented it. I remember you talking some years ago about in order for a new order to be established, there has to be a breaking point where you sort of pop out on the other side with a greater understanding and ability to cope with what you were not able to cope with before. And, I gather from what you’ve written thus far, we are approaching that breaking point as a world society. I also remember you saying something about it not doing any good to try to maintain the status quo, but rather to be the observer, like a scientist objectively observing what is happening without getting emotionally attached to outcomes. I take it, this is where your multi part blog is leading, as giving all the dark and grim “facts” will only serve us if we learn a way to face them and successfully deal with them.

    I don’t think anyone ever said it would be easy to be a human being. But the people who are manifest right now, all have come forth to be here during this approaching shift. While it might get terrible, on the balance, there is an equal wonderfulness as well, and how we deal with it all has a great deal to do with where we put our attention. Fighting against anything does not serve you or me or anyone, but focusing on the life experiences we appreciate and enjoy does serve us well. The contrast is present so that our choices are more pronounced and clear. When there was little difference between that which we wanted and that which we didn’t want, it was hard to decide which path to take, but as the differences become more pronounced, it choices become more clear as well.

    Everything presented has been presented from the perspective of seperateness, ego, duality. All of that exists within the ONE where these waves and trends rise and fall endlessly. People can and will continue to harm each other until they awaken to the fact of our oneness in being. When we awaken to this, all the hurting and divisiveness will subside. This is my prediction.

    The external manifestation is a reflection of the inner state in being. If you would bring peace to your life experiencing, find the peace you want within you first, and radiate it to the world. If you want abundance in your life experience, find it within you first, and then it will naturally manifest in the external world.

    It doesn’t matter what someone else does, it does matter what I do, what you do. In other words, let others take care of their own life experiencing, and allow them the freedom to experience their life in the way they choose.

    My advice to anyone who cares to consider it, is to be fully present in the moment, and to find joy in it. (Joy resides within you as fountain eternally flowing. While the world falls apart around you, you can still find the joyous stream within you because it is your source and your being. I dentify with IT, and thereby follow your bliss. Whatever your choices and however your life unfolds for you, the truth of your being is always here, now within you.

    Peace, be well.

    Jerry

  14. Raoul Nanda says :

    Hey Bill, thank you for sharing your ideas with us. You’ve obviously taken a great deal of time and effort to put them together.

    Question: what can we do, practically speaking, to prepare ourselves for this down wave?

    Buy gold? Buy guns?

    I guess I have a general question as well. What is your intent in sharing these ideas with us? I am concerned that your predictions are very general and they leave the reader with little to nothing to really take away from it other then lots of terrible shit is going to go down so be aware (whatever that would mean), be compassionate, and spend time with your loved ones. I don’t find that particularly helpful or new.

    Also, where would your promotion of “The Secret” fall into all of your recent posts. Is the “Secret” magical thinking? Is the Secret a part of the down turn with charlatans coming out offering solutions to life’s challenges?

    FROM BILL: I’ve made a number of suggestions as to what to do in my responses to the posts of others.

    I’ve never promoted The Secret, which (as presented) is based on magical thinking.

  15. Seer says :

    I have a question that I’m not sure I can ask clearly, or whether any of you will consider it worth consideration/answering, if not, no problem, it’s mostly a curiosity on my part.

    If I’m catching the general drift of this theory, presently we’re looking at a complete collapse of society as we recognize it, due to collective human burn out so to speak, a social structure that has become too ‘everything’ to sustain. If I’m understanding correctly this will be due to a human-instigated cause (since this mood stuff is related to humanity). In the normal ‘wave order’ of things, we’ll hit bottom and gradually restructure and recover – hopefully :).

    My question. Considering the current seeming rise in natural disorder (changing weather patterns, etc, due to whatever) suppose that the planet ‘shrugs’ and collapses society before society has a chance to collapse on it’s own?

    Would this intervention – of a sort – create any change in the social mood spectrum? In other words, would people continue on the downward ‘curve’ that we’re on now, or would an enormous natural catastrophe shock/morph the current mood into an upward, ‘let’s all pull together’ curve?

    I’m curious about this because right now we’re all self-involved, narrow visioned, the rickety structure we’re occupying still seems personal. A single enormous disaster (think meteor impact ;) or a series of natural disasters (continuous multiple quakes maybe) would be something much bigger than any of us or our societies. Right now we see things on a “I must survive” scale – in the natural disaster scenario it would be a “Will humanity survive?” scale. Would something like that change the course of the ‘waves’, or are they/their motion concrete/immutable as long as there is a humanity to experience them?

    I guess it’s the immutable part that I’m iffy on :). If life experience has taught me anything to this point it’s that predictability is inherently unpredictable – too often just when we think we’ve nailed it, we find out it ain’t so. I’m not disputing the validity of the theory, I’m just curious as to whether it’s as ‘die cast’ as it sounds :). I understand that history teaches – but so does exception :).

    FROM BILL: I’ve already addressed this. Elliott Wave doesn’t make exact predictions. It describes a pattern in human behavior in which certain things are likely to happen.

    Natural disasters only make times of social mood worse. In times of positive social mood, people pull together during natural disasters. In this of negative social mood it’s more “every man for himself” and more fear.

  16. Sally says :

    Very depressing indeed. As a widow with limited assets, how am I supposed to protect myself from the impending chaos?

    FROM BILL: I have made several suggestions in my answers to the posts of others (see the comments posted after part one).

  17. chris says :

    Hi Bill,
    Thanks for your thought provoking posts…while I am above average intelligence, [or so the tests say] I will be the first to admit that I am not schooled in much of the details of your comments and appreciate your in depth explanations. Forgive my naiveté, but how would you direct someone to learn and truly prepare for all that is potentially going to happen?

    Thanks,
    chris

    FROM BILL: See my answers to many other posts, especially after Part One.

  18. NiRo says :

    History is ending because the dominator culture has led the human species into a blind alley, and as the inevitable chaostrophie approaches, people look for metaphors and answers. Every time a culture gets into trouble it casts itself back into the past looking for the last sane moment it ever knew. And the last sane moment we ever knew was on the plains of Africa 15,000 years ago rocked in the cradle of the Great Horned Mushroom Goddess before history, before standing armies, before slavery and property, before warfare and phonetic alphabets and monotheism, before, before, before. And this is where the future is taking us because the secret faith of the twentieth century is not modernism, the secret faith of the twentieth century is nostalgia for the archaic, nostalgia for the paleolithic, and that gives us body piercing, abstract expressionism, surrealism, jazz, rock-n-roll and catastrophe theory. The 20th century mind is nostalgic for the paradise that once existed on the mushroom dotted plains of Africa where the plant-human symbiosis occurred that pulled us out of the animal body and into the tool-using, culture-making, imagination-exploring creature that we are. And why does this matter? It matters because it shows that the way out is back and that the future is a forward escape into the past. This is what the psychedelic experience means. Its a doorway out of history and into the wiring under the board in eternity. And I tell you this because if the community understands what it is that holds it together the community will be better able to streamline itself for flight into hyperspace because what we need is a new myth, what we need is a new true story that tells us where we’re going in the universe and that true story is that the ego is a product of pathology, and when psilocybin is regularly part of the human experience the ego is supressed and the supression of the ego means the defeat of the dominators, the materialists, the product peddlers. Psychedelics return us to the inner worth of the self, to the importance of the feeling of immediate experience – and nobody can sell that to you and nobody can buy it from you, so the dominator culture is not interested in the felt presence of immediate experience, but that’s what holds the community together. And as we break out of the silly myths of science, and the infantile obsessions of the marketplace what we discover through the psychedelic experience is that in the body, IN THE BODY, there are Niagras of beauty, alien beauty, alien dimensions that are part of the self, the richest part of life. I think of going to the grave without having a psychedelic experience like going to the grave without ever having sex. It means that you never figured out what it is all about. The mystery is in the body and the way the body works itself into nature. What the Archaic Revival means is shamanism, ecstacy, orgiastic sexuality, and the defeat of the three enemies of the people. And the three enemies of the people are hegemony, monogamy and monotony! And if you get them on the run you have the dominators sweating folks, because that means your getting it all reconnected, and getting it all reconnected means putting aside the idea of separateness and self-definition through thing-fetish. Getting it all connected means tapping into the Gaian mind, and the Gaian mind is what we’re calling the psychedelic experience. Its an experience of the living fact of the entelechy of the planet. And without that experience we wander in a desert of bogus ideologies. But with that experience the compass of the self can be set, and that’s the idea; figuring out how to reset the compass of the self through community, through ecstatic dance, through psychedelics, sexuality, intelligence, INTELLIGENCE. This is what we have to have to make the forward escape into hyperspace.

    .. alright. Have you ever noticed how ahh, there’s this quality to reality which comes and goes, and kind of ebbs and flows and nobody ever mentions it or has a name for it except some people call it a ‘bad hair day’ or some people say ‘Things are really weird recently.’ And I think we never notice it and we never talk about it because we’re embedded in a culture that expects us to believe that all times are the same, and that your bank account doesn’t fluctuate except according to the vicissitudes of your own existence. In other words, every moment is expected to be the same and yet this isn’t what we experience. And so what I noticed was that running through reality is the ebb and flow of novelty. And some days, and some years, and some centuries are very novel indeed, and some ain’t. And they come and go on all scales differently, interweaving, resonating. And this is what time seems to be. And Science has overlooked this, this most salient of facts about nature: that nature is a novelty conserving engine. And that from the very first moments of that most improbable big bang, novelty has been conserved because in the very beginning there was only an ocean of energy pouring into the universe. There were no planets, no stars, no molecules, no atoms, no magnetic fields; there was only an ocean of free electrons. And then time passed and the universe cooled and novel structures crystallized out of disorder. First, atoms; atoms of hydrogen and helium aggregating into stars. And at the center of those stars the temperature and the pressure created something which had never been seen before which was fusion. And fusion cooking in the hearts of stars brought forth more novelty: heavy elements – iron, carbon, four-valent carbon. And as time passed there were not only then elementary systems but because of the presence of carbon and the lower temperatures in the universe, molecular structures. And out of molecules come simple subsets of organism. The genetic machinery for transcripting information, aggregating into membranes, always binding novelty, always condensing time, always building and conserving upon complexity, and always faster and faster and faster. And then we come to ourselves. And where do WE fit into all of this. Five million years ago we were an animal of some sort. Where will we be five million years from tonight? What we represent is not a sideshow, or an epiphenomenon, or an ancillary something-or-other on the edge of nowhere. What WE represent is the nexus of concrescent novelty that has been moving itself together, complexifying itself, folding itself in upon itself for billions and billions of years. There is, so far as we know, nothing more advanced than what is sitting behind your eyes. The human neocortex is the most densely ramified complexified structure in the known universe. We are the cutting edge of organismic transformation of matter in this cosmos. And this has been going on for a while; since the discovery of fire, since the discovery of language. But now, and by now I mean in the last 10,000 years, we’ve been into something new. Not genetic information, not genetic mutation, not natural selection, but epigenetic activity: writing, theatre, poetry, dance, art, tattooing, body piercing and philisophy. And these things have accelerated the ingression into novelty so that we have become an idea excreting force in nature that builds temples, builds cities, builds machines, social engines, plans, and spreads over the Earth, into space, into the micro-physical domain, into the micro-physical domain. We, who five million years ago were animals, can kindle in our deserts and if necesary upon the cities of our enemies the very energy which lights the stars at night. Now, something peculiar is going on here. Something is calling us out of nature and sculpting us in it’s own image. And the confrontation with this something is now not so far away. This is what the impending apparent end of everything actually means. It means that the de-no-ma(?) of human history is about to occur and is about to be revealed as a universal process of compressing and expressing novelty that is now going to become so intensified that it is going to flow over into another dimension.

    You can feel it. You can feel it in your own dreams. You can feel it in your own trips. You can feel that we’re approaching the cusp of a catastrophe, and that beyond that cusp we are unrecognizable to ourselves. The wave of novelty that has rolled unbroken since the birth of the universe has now focussed and coalesced itself in our species. And if it seems unlikely to you that the world is about to transform itself, then think of it this way: think of a pond, and think of how if the surface of the pond begins to boil – that’s the signal that some enormous protean form is about to break the surface of the pond and reveal itself. Human history IS the boiling of the pond surface of ordinary biology. We are flesh which has been caught in the grip of some kind of an attractor that lies ahead of us in time, and that is sculpting us to its ends; speaking to us through psychedelics, through visions, through culture, and technology, consciousness. The language forming capacity in our species is propelling itself forward as though it were going to shed the monkey body and leap into some extra-surreal space that surrounds us, but that we can not currently see. Even the people who run the planet, the World Bank, the IMF, you name it, they know that history is ending. They know by the reports which cross their desks: the disappearance of the ozone hole [?], the toxification of the ocean, the clearing of the rain forests. What this means is that the womb of the planet has reached its finite limits, and that the human species has now, without choice, begun the decent down the birth canal of collective transformation toward something right around the corner and nearly completely unimaginable. And this is where the psychedelic shaman comes is because I believe that what we really contact through psychedelics is a kind of hyperspace. And from that hyperspace we look down on…, we look down on both the past and the future, and we anticipate the end. And a shaman is someone who has seen the end, and therefore is a trickster, because you don’t worry if you’ve seen the end. If you know how it comes out you go back and you take your place in the play, and you let it all roll on without anxiety. This is what boundary dissolution means. It means nothing less than the anticipation of the end state of human history. A return to the archaic mode. A rediscovery of the orgiastic freedom of the African grasslands of 20,000 years ago. A techno-escape forward into a future that looks more like the past than the future because materialism, consumerism, product-fetishism, all of these things will be eliminated and technology will become nanotechnology and disappear from our physical presence. If we have the dream, if we allow the wave of novelty to propel us toward the creativity that is inimitable to the human condition. That’s what we’re talking about here: psychedelics as a catalyst to the human imagination, psychedelics as a catalyst for language; because what cannot be said, cannot be created by the community. So what we need then is the forced evolution of language. And the way to do that is to go back to the agents that created language in the very first place. And that means the psychedelic plants, the Gaian Logos, and the mysterious, beckoning, extraterrestrial minds beyond. Hooking ourselves back up in to the chakras of the hierarchy of nature, turning ourselves over to the mind of the total other that created us and brought us forth out of animal organization. We are somehow part of the planetary destiny. How well we do determines how well the experiment of life on Earth does, because we have become the cutting edge of that experiment, we define it, and we hold in our hands the power to make or to break it.

    This is not a dress rehearsal for the apocalypse. This is not a pseudo-millenium. This is the real thing folks. This is not a test. This is the last chance before things become so dissipated that there is no chance for cohesiveness. We can use the calender as a club. We can make the millenium an occasion for establishing an authentic human civilization, overcoming the dominator paradigm, dissolving boundaries through psychedelics, recreating a sexuality not based on monotheism, monogamy and monotony. We.. All these things are possible if we can understand the overarching metaphor which holds it together which is the celebration of mind as play, the celebration of love as a genuine social value in the community. This is what they have suppressed so long. This is why they are so afraid of the psychedelics, because they understand that once you touch the inner core of your own and someone else’s being you can’t be led into thing-fetishes and consumerism. The message of psychedelics is that culture can be re-engineered as a set of emotional values rather than products. This is terrifying news. And if we are able to make this point then we can pull back, we can pull back and we can transcend. Nine times in the last million years the ice has ground south from the poles pushing human populations ahead of it and those people didn’t fuck up. Why should we then? We are all survivors. We are the inheritors of a million years of striving for the unspeakable. And now with the engines of technology in our hands we ought to be able to reach out and actually exteriorize the human soul at the end of time, invoke it into existence like a UFO and open the violet doorway into hyperspace and walk through it, out of profane history and into the world beyond the grave, beyond shamanism, beyond the end of history, into the galactic millenium that has beckoned to us for millions of years across space and time. THIS IS THE MOMENT. A planet brings forth an opportunity like this only once in its lifetime, and we are ready, and we are poised. And as a community we are ready to move into it, to claim it, to make it our own.

    It’s there. Go for it, and thank you.

    FROM BILL: World’s longest paragraph! Congratulations to anyone who made it to the end!

  19. Sam says :

    I’m surprised with all of the discussion so far that nobody has mentioned Ken Wilber’s quadrants and how we could view these things from those perspectives, including also the idea of social mood as a state and how this fluctuation in social mood–depicted in waves–effects different levels within types of societies and current infrustructures around the world; I’m sure also that different lines of development could be used to determine individuals who could group together in master-minds to help each other prepare for what’s ahead so that we could share the load and so that things wouldn’t get so bad. Just a quick note as there’s not much time.

  20. David Massoglia says :

    Bill,

    Prechter is wrong about the 90% stock bear market…it will not happen. His count is wrong…therefore, all the deep devastation will not happen…though things are not going to be good either…just not nearly as bad as he is predicting. Elliott Wave is a valid theory…just his wave count is wrong. We are in a stock market bull market and it will correct big time at the next top…maybe even 40% to 50%…but not 90%. Prechter applies the theory subjectively…and is just plain wrong. In fact, he has been predicting this bear market that we went throught since 1987. It was a grand supercycle bear market and not a bigger one as he thinks and the bear market is over. The stock market will not go below the March 2009 low for a very long time. The stock market is in a long term bull market varied by the Objective Elliott Wave Count of Tony Caldaro.

    Just trying to help you not get too swayed by the hype of Prechter’s excellent marketing. Trust me…I did too at one time. You have helped me so much…that I wish to help you in one way that I have some better information. Many bad things will happen…just not the complete devastation that Prechter predicts…that kind of devastation happens only in gigantic waves down and it was just a big wave down and not as big as the 1932 wave down. Those 5th grand supercycle wave ends happen about every 200 to 300 years and the last one was in 1932…the 2009 correction was just the end of a 1st grand supercycle….about every 80 years or so. A big devastation but not the 1932 type. I certainly would never invest on Prechter’s advice…on that…most of the invest community laughs at him.

    FROM BILL: So, you’re essentially saying that YOUR Elliott Wave theorist can beat up my Elliot Wave theorist. This means war! Dueling wave counts at fifty paces!

    Give me a break. I don’t really care (very much) who has the “correct” wave count. You don’t think a 50% drop iun the stock market would be devasting enough? I’m not bringing this up so you Elliott Wave geeks can nitpick the details.

  21. Toni says :

    Very interesting post.

    Like Bill, I prefer to see things how they really are, not how I want them to be.

    Ignoring what’s happening around you doesn’t make you optimistic, it makes you vulnerable. Seeing the truth doesn’t make you pessimistic – it makes you able to take steps to protect yourself.

    There’s an interesting book by William Straus and Neil Howe called The Fourth Turning that gives some fascinating insight into the cycles of human society, where we are at present and where we’re possibly headed.

    FROM BILL: I am very familiar with Howe and Strauss and their work. I highly recommend their stuff, which dovetails very nicely with what we’re talking about here.

  22. Michelle says :

    What movements do you see right now on our planet that are hopeful? Bring new life, sustainability and new paradigms and ways of being that can assist us to evolve? What do you think of the localization movements in communities? What can be done to mediate the downward spiral towards chaos?

    FROM BILL: I don’t think there’s much that can be done to prevent the chaos. It is going to happen no matter what anyone does. It is declining social mood manifesting, and there’s not stopping it until it gets as negative as it can get, at which point it will turn around and improve.

    I do think it’s positive that people are waking up and fighting back against the tendency to centralize control, which takes away freedom of choice, leads to totalitarianism, and is quite wasteful in terms of resources. I also think that the coming tough times will cause people to value human connection more and to appreciate those aspects of life referred to when people say, “The best things in life are free.” These times will cause a deep re-thinking of priorities for individuals, groups, and countries.

    There are always benefits to any negative situation. World War 2 led to many technological and medical advances, and many other benefits. However, million died and many more millions suffered. No one would seek out what is unfolding in the world today (other than megalomaniacal nutjobs) just because there will also be some benefits, but still, there are always beneficial outcomes even to the worse situations.

    There are many things you can do as a person to reduce the liklihood that you or those you love will be negatively effected by what is happening. These include increasing your support circle, getting out of debt, having ways to protect yourself beyond relying on the authorities, in case they stop being able to protect you, having some stored food and water, having some cash or gold outside the banking system, getting out of unsafe areas, educating yourself about history and some of the other issues that have come up in this blog, and having sources of reliable information other than the mainstream sources.

  23. Alex says :

    Dear Bill:
    As always very interesting and thought provoking!…I would add that you could focus also in many good things happening today, science is growing a lot, and we are knowing and discovering things that we were not aware of just few years ago.
    Once read something that Carl Sagan wrote that we grow exponential as a human race, and that all systems that have this king of growth collapse eventually….so, the earth will equilibrate itself and we will have to become less, when? who knows!, but we can not keep on growing as we have.
    great contribution by Sebastian!
    Blessings.
    Alex.

  24. Lots of people think they can predict the future. They have beliefs about the afterlife, heaven and hell, angels and demons. My 87 year old gardener, a 7th Day Adventist, predicts the last days and Jehovah’s Witnesses believe they can count the number of those who will survive death. The answer to these beliefs can only be “Nobody knows.”
    Science apparently also believes the future is predictable. Elliot waves and fractals sound to me like all prophecies; maybe so, maybe not. Life on earth has never been easy, but predictions of doom usually fail; doomsday comes and goes and the prophets go home.
    I have always been they type of person with a little money in the cash tin and extra food in the cupboard. I don’t foresee the future. I am grateful for my life and the beauty of nature. If a rock falls on my head tomorrow, that’s what happens. As a nurse, I would tentatively suggest a visit to the doctor to check out sympoms of depression.

    FROM BILL: For the umpteenth time, what I am describing is not a method of making prophecies. It is a repeating pattern people have noticed. It is supported by a LOT of data. When we notice a pattern, we can use it to make some sorts of predictions. An example I gave after another person’t comment was noticing the patterns of summer, fall, winter, spring. We know this pattern repeats and we also know that certain things are more likely to happen in each season. While we can’t predict exactly what will happen in the summer, we do know it will be warmer, there will be more sunny days, people will wear lighter clothing, people will spend more time outdoors, and so forth. These are not “prophecies,” though–they are reasonable assumptions based on a lot of past data about summer.

    This is also not about being optimistic or pessimistic. Certainly I think any person will feel better on a moment by moment basis if they are generally optimistic. One can be optimistic, however, and also prepare for things one hope won’t happen. When I buy fire insurance it’s isn’t because I’m wallowing in pessimism about a potential house fire. I’m just weight the pros and cons of paying for insurance versus the slight chance of a fire.

    We ARE entering a time of severe negative social mood. Throughout history, these times having included some grim events. It seems only prudent to be aware of what is happening and take reasonable steps to be prepared, just in case.

  25. Terry Lyle says :

    Well.

    Christopher. I never thought that anyone could write a a longer post than Bill. But you are a contender. I read it in complete fascination…but have to admit I didn’t get most of it…my problem, not yours.

    I think these “hell in a handbasket” posts are of real interest. Everyone has a lot of fancy words and can elaborate on how awful everything is going to be. You know, before I came to centerpointe and holosync meditation, I never needed anyone to tell me how horrible life is. I made it up on my own. And boy, was life terrible! (even though I now know I had the love of others, great opportunities, and that I am the luckiest man on earth! I am a prime example of how blind a person can be to reality)

    Now that I have several years of holosynce meditation and I am in the third course of LIfe’s Principles, I’m reading these posts and wondering about the level of fear I’m sensing in these posts.

    Bill wrote this to me in the first of this hell series:

    FROM BILL: You create your emotional and behavior world–if you are aware enough. You don’t create (and shouldn’t ignore) the effects the rest of the world has on your situation. If these effects are becoming dangerous to you, you should take heed of them.

    I’ve thought about this. I agree that I don’t create the effects of the rest of the world. I create the effects of my own existence. I choose to be removed from much of what you are all lamenting (what is…is). Yet, I’m at a great place in life. Did I create this?

    I don’t sense anything is “becoming dangerous” to me. I’ve already lived a life steeped in fear…everyday…,for over 50 years. In fact, now I sense that everything is okay. Isn’t that a hoot?!

    I spent most of my entire life being afraid of everything…and I mean everything! Now that the world is going to end…I’m okay with that.

    I’ll go back to what Bill has taught me. All systems collapse. All. I never knew this before and now that I do I look at everything…life, work, world, family, pleasures, breathing, posting on a blog!, eating, drinking, laughing, crying, sex, the end of the world…everything as “this too shall pass”. It is a interesting place to be.

    So, what are we all going to do about it? Read these blogs and panic and respond with thousands of words that amount to just about nothing but wind in the air…or black fonts in cyberspace.

    Or, here’s an idea…how about letting everything be okay?

    FROM BILL: I’m glad you brought this up. I want to make it very clear that I am not suggesting that you live in fear, nor am I suggesting that you panic. That is a conclusion you’re making ABOUT what I have said. If you have lived much of your life in that mode, I can see why you might see reverting to doing so as something to be avoided. (However, when you focus on that, you suffer the same consequences you suffer from focusing on any thing you don’t want–feeling bad in some way, and giving your mind an instruction to create or attract more of it–in this case, more fear or panic.)

    The fact that you aren’t feeling any of the effects of what I’m describing (and what Christopher has described in his comment) doesn’t mean that it isn’t affecting you, or that it won’t affect you in the future. Unfortunately, this is going to affect everyone, and–again unfortunately–in a pretty severe way.

    Fear plays an important role in human life. It alerts you to potential danger so you can do something to protect yourself. If you go around feeling afraid all the time you are, of course, overdoing it. I suspect that because you used to be afraid a lot you’re now UNDERdoing it. What is going on in the world, and what I think is coming is worth being CONCERNED ABOUT. Not fearful, not panicky, but certainly concerned–in the same way you are concerned about anything else in life that might affect you in a negative way.

    So be prepared, but whether you do the things inside that cause you to feel afraid and panicky, that is a choice–as long as you are aware enough to see how you create it.

  26. Terry Lyle says :

    I reread Christopher’s epilogue. And Bill’s repsonse. If you read all the other dire predcitions out there in cyberpace…and in print…can we not help but create the end of the world? We are focused on what we “don’t want”…practically the entire human race is focused on this end. All of Mankind’s thinking. WOW!

    So I still say…let it be okay.

    FROM BILL: And would that have been your suggestion to the Jews in Germany?

  27. ERIC HARTUNIAN says :

    Too long.

    FROM BILL: Everyone has an attention span.

  28. Christopher says :

    Not to start an argument, or even a debate, I am not trying to. But I have to comment to David Massoglia. I will say that for you to state that Robert Prechter is not objective, is like saying that the Pope is not Catholic. It’s an absurd statement. He practices PURE Elliott Wave Theory, as founded by Ralph Nelson himself. I viewed your guy Caldaro and looked at some of his counts. He is definitely unorthodox. He has made his own rules, it appears. Not that he may not be on to something, I don’t know. However, his counts do not make sense from a purist point of view. They break some fundamental rules of Wave Theory set down by the masters. I looked at his counts on the S&P and the DOW and they do not look correct to me. Of course they are in complete contrast to Prechter. He has us going into a completely new bull market. I don’t buy it. The correction is not over, or even close. There are violations in the theory and so I cannot align myself with it. Only time will tell us the truth of what is unfolding. But I tend to stick with the purity of the theory founded long ago. Another guy that is interesting and has modified the structure and counting method is Glenn Neely of NeoWave Institute. He uses TIME along with price and claims more accuracy. Not that Robert does not consider time. He is actually quite a guru with cycles as well as Elliott Wave counting. Anyway, Neely too, is very unorthodox. But to be honest, I would not go against the depth of knowledge that Prechter has. Not just the Elliott side, but the immense study into the socionomics side. His work with Bolton and the Elliott greats cannot and should not be discounted. To each his own, but Prechter is objective, without a doubt. Timing and objectivity are two vastly different things.

    And to Santiago: I believe firmly that we each have our own personal wave count in our own lives. Although it is more jagged and not so smooth as to be evened out by a crowd. We go through many ups and downs in life. In my personal life, I have experienced a pretty nice rise to prominence and then fell hard, only to lose most of that gain. I have done a basic count of my own life from an overview I took of it. Only one I hold and can see or know. I have been in a long term, large-scale corrective phase that should end soon. I know when my wave 3 down happened. It had to be a wave 3. It’s equivalent to the fall I believe is happening on the world scene soon. It was my personal Armageddon, if you will.

    My best to you all. I respect your opinions and beliefs. And in the end, we have to trust ourselves. So David, go for what you believe in and just be objective with yourself about what you see and the rest will just happen, no matter what we think or project. I have figured out that in the end, we don’t know too much at all. None of us.

    FROM BILL: I’ll just add that when Christopher was first learning this stuff his wave counts (his predictions, using charts and Elliott Wave principles) were so accurate (they predicted what was going to happen better) that those who were teaching him offered him a job with Elliott Wave because he obviously was ultilizing the theory better than they were. No one is infallible, and as Christopher and I have stressed, this is about probablities, but I have a lot of confidence in his views on this subject.

  29. Christopher says :

    I forgot. To Paula: Stay close to your friends and family. Have a support net. You’ll be ok. We don’t know exactly how this will go. But having some precautionary measures in place and planning, like Bill is trying to get across, is the key. He is trying to get us to plan and understand a possibility that he believes is more of a probability. He is only trying to make you aware of the future propect of a severe turn in mood. Prudent measures will not hurt you. No planning at all and complete disbelief, could.

    My best to you and yours.

  30. Stefan Wolf says :

    First of all, thanks to Bill for bringing it to the point.
    It is hard to acknowledge for many people, that things are going to change- a great deal. I consider myself also as a realistic person and nevertheless I see great potential, regarding self-development and spiritual growth in the upcoming times. It is one thing to sit at home at your meditation-pillow and being peaceful, and yet it is another thing when you actually are in the middle of some crisis areas and are challanged to remain peaceful. We could see it as a spiritual growth battle field then…
    One of the most positive things on this earth, of which I have become aware over the last years, are so called eco-villages and/or intentional communities. There increased appearing the world over is directly connected to the realization that something has to change in our lifestyles if we want to continue to live on this earth. I have created a film about these highly self-sufficient projects and you can see a trailer at http://www.NewWe.info
    The film is available on DVD all over the world and presents 10 ecovillages and communities in 8 european countries. Just check the website for more informations about it.
    During the upcoming times those places will be a kind of oases and could function as a spring of knowledge giving to people the informations necessary to deal with the economic crash and creating local self-organized, cooperative communities.(which they are already doing successfully)
    I hope that many more people can see the benefits and importance(probably for our SURVIVAL) of these projects.
    Thanks Bill for coming up with all of this. It gave me the impulse to share this.
    Kind regards,
    Stefan Wolf

    FROM BILL: Hopefully these communities will be as you say. I am skeptical in that throughout history there have been various autopian communities. None have ever survived, and most have devolved into something quite unsavory, even life-threatening. Perhaps these will be different. I would prefer to not throw in my lot with such a group, but everyone has to make his or her own choices.

  31. Christopher says :

    One more post and I will bow out. Bill, thanks for your courgae and your will to help others here. I know that is you intent.

    This has to do with the current count from EWI. As I have studied and traded this chart myself for 12 years now, I have had some questions with the count from the 11,750 top onward. I am sure it is one of two things. Each, unfortunately spells doom and gloom ahead. That does not mean I do, personally, the chart does, OK? …

    I have feelings that it is possible that rather than a WAVE 2 of a C WAVE back up right now, it could be a larger scale B WAVE back up. Meaning the C WAVE down has not begun yet, and that the fall in 80-09 was an A WAVE, i.e. the first wave in a three wave corrective structure. Prechter and company call it WAVE 1 of 5 down of the C WAVE, the final major leg down, and called the A WAVE the drop back in 07. I tend to think that might have been a WAVE 4 in the overall up trend that went on to new highs to 14,200 and may have been the WAVE 5 top of the bull. I see no proper WAVE 4 there to call 11,750 the WAVE 5 top. In price or time. Just a thought I have always had.

    In any case, they both spell the same outcome. Their call, EWI’s, would then be an expanded flat correction since the B WAVE would have gone from the 7500 low, the A WAVE down from 11,750, back to 14,200, way over the preceding bull market top of 11,750. Hence my feelings that it is highly possible that the 14,200 may actually be the WAVE 5 top instead of the 11,750 top. Prechter has paid close attention to fundamentals, volume and many other aspects and is the authority.

    According to my possibility, the DOW could in Elliott theory, still go to new highs without violating rules and NOT be in a bull market. That too then, would be an expanded flat going above the old 14,200 high. That is where the B WAVE goes above the preceding bull market high as mentoned. I just don’t like it that the DOW has gone this far in a WAVE 2 or a B WAVE at all. It’s unnerving. It’s leaving Fibonacci levels in the dust month after month. Like the feight train from hell. This baby won’t give in. Like Prechter thought and has been stunned, this thing should have ended at 10,750 or in the 11,300 area coming off that 6600 low of WAVE 1 or WAVE A. It has demolished that price range now and that makes me suspect as to what is happening. It is tricky here at this juncture. But this thing keeps defying logic, gravity and any other force thrown at it. It states to me the amount of denial and hedonism it contains. It should be some serious fireworks once the denial and the hope end.

    I know this is hard to understand without visuals. Elliott Wave Theory. Sorry. I’m just saying I don’t like this rebound. It has gone too high now. Breaking no rules however. A WAVE 2 can go all the way to the point of the start of WAVE 1, which is 14,200 in this case, but NOT exceed it. A B WAVE can go over it. If this goes past 14,200, it’s not a WAVE 2 of a C WAVE down. It’s a B WAVE in an expanded flat correction. Then the fatal C WAVE would begin.

    I do not beleive it is a 5th wave up of the bull as CALDARO puts it. It’s just opinion. That’s all. Time will tell us. And it is dragging it out unbelieveably. It’s really stunning.

    Cheers to you all and I wish you the best in your lives. Hang on. The ride is coming. I’m pretty sure of that. Exactly when, is harder to tell.

    FROM BILL: To everyone else reading this, I’m guessing most of this sounds like gibberish. You have to have a good grounding in the Elliott Wave principles to know what Christopher is talking about. It is highly technical. I’ve just been trying to give you the big picture, and to focus on the big picture that social mood is now entering a hugely negative period.

  32. John Griggs says :

    Okay Bill, I will study up before I go into any lengthy comment. I do disagree with you about Unions, even Government Unions have been in rapid decline since the early 70s, and with their decline so has the living wage declined. This topic I have researched in Full. IN scanning your prediction list it seems, at least in this country that the economic predictions can easily be traced back to the policies and legislation laid out by our lobbyist bought government over the last fifteen to thirty years.
    One other response to your comments about more people watching Fox News than all the other Media outlets combined-more people eat McDonalds than any other Fast Foods, but it’s all junk food Bill. None of it benefits our health. I would say the same is primarily true about our Television media. They are all serving us what they chose to serve us, junk food for the brain. Be it Right or Left my observation of people who watch Television News is that thier maps of reality tend towards anger, fear, and hopelessness. I am not suggesting one should ignore media, but rather research for oneself before drawing any conclusions drawn by our media. Ialso strongly disagree with you aboutSocial Security and radical Muslims taking over the Middle East, but again I will research it.
    You have not done me wrong yet so I will zip it here and follow your advice by researching all of this on the internet and by reading up on it. I certainly would not expect to be honestly informed about this by Fox News, MSNBC, Glen Beck, Charlie Sheen, etc. etc.
    You Rock Bill
    John
    PS Maybe we could find a way to sneak the Gamma Compassion Sound Tracks into all the Radio and Television news broadcasts and in every Mall across America. That would definately turn things around don’t you think?

    FROM BILL: The policies you cite were the outcome of a time of the highest positive social mood in recorded history, a time in which people were so positive they were willing to take ridiculous risks. Yes, some of the consequences are happening now. Social mood, however, drives it all. Check out the data and you will see that this is clearly true.

    I’m not going to get into the unions and so forth. As for Fox News, I’ll bet you never watch it. I do watch all the networks, and though I don’t think Fox is a very complete source of information, I think they are infinitely more reliable and less biased than the others.

  33. Dave says :

    Hi Bill,
    It’s all one thing/event, the only moment is now. If we think it could or should be better…that’s Hell, if we think it is perfect just the way it is… that’s heaven. The only place I have ever been able to practice the Nine Principles is here now, including my favorite – “let whatever happens be Okay.” This may not get posted, it is from my open heart to yours, so here is an open question from my Holosync meditations….

    Where do I end and you begin?

    These words started out in my mind went through my hands to the keyboard out across the internet onto your screen into your eyes and then into your mind. This is on topic by the way, because one central fact has been avoided, like we all often dance around the real question.

    When are we all going to take personal responsiblity for the now that we have created together… the functional and the dysfunctional.

    the CENTRAL fact is, no bell curve of social mood did this to our experience of reality, WE DID! No well put together scientific Idea outrumps free will, Bill! It is just an IDEA, it has no real substance unless we grant it substance. The collective future of humanity is more beyond our control than impermenance or cause and effect, it is the ultimate open question. Every mind that put all the material you have been reading together collectivly , still only represents a small portion of the population, and are presenting only one IDEA about a thing.

    There are frequencies of light that are beyond my eyes seeing, I call it darkness. Sounds beyond my ears hearing range I call it silence.To believe that the Human brain was evolved enough to predict the future for all humans on the planet is beyond magical thinking, it is science fiction. I have no desire to read that stuff! I am content experiencing life for myself and forming my own ideas at this stage in my evolution. So you can let our readers know (if you like) that “I am responsible for all of this” but I am working out a solution and everything is going well:)

    I would like to suggest a vacation for you. I mean it in the kindest way. Leave the Efn T.V. at home, forget the newspapers and books and spend some time out in nature. Walk barefoot for a while learn a few new songs on your guitar, reconnect with the simplicity of being unplugged and un influenced.

    You are a great man, I love your work,
    Dave

    FROM BILL: There IS a physical reality out there. And, there are your ideas about it. Hunger, bullets, bombs, lack of money to pay the rent, unemployment, etc. are real, physical experiences. People may have idea about them, but they are real sources of suffering. Nothing you say would I disagree with–most of it I teach. However, the relative world is real, it does affect people, and even if you have no ideas about it, things in it can hurt you. Don’t disown that part of existence.

  34. Johannes says :

    Dear Lord Bill…
    You ain’t kiddin around recently. You write about stuff that disturbs a lot of people (myself inculded :) ) but what the hell.
    Anyway, I want to ask that what made you conclude this? How did you come to this prediction? (I don’t really follow the world news, though I am aware of the situation at Egypt and the depression etc.)
    I was recently thinking about this topic myself and I couldn’t reach consensus. We are advancing very very rapidly technology wise, so fast that it is very hard to keep up with it. I thought that this might be a problem.

    Anyway I’d like to hear your opinion on the causes.

    Peace,
    Johannes

    FROM BILL: Did you read the post? Social mood swings from positive to negative and back again. All the rest stems from these changes in social mood, which are built into humanity.

  35. Andy says :

    Wow Bill, provocative. Amazing what it pulls out of the woodwork. Following on from my cautious but unreasoned optimism in response to Part 1: you are right we have had a cushy time in the West since the 2WW. I have travelled the world and seen how lucky and how rich we are in comparison to most of the planet’s inhabitants. Speaking as a Brit, it is easy to see from across the ‘Pond’ how naive and spoiled Americans commonly are. Not that some of the poorest fish I have met in less fortunate locations weren’t very contented in their puddles, but all the time Western hedonism has been partying, many countries and cultures have been experiencing their Armageddons, whether Bosnian, Serbian, Russian, Chechen, Afgha, Iraqi, Chinese, Vietnamese, Cambodian, Indonesian, Tibetan or whatever. It was, and will be, ever thus. Whether the water the fish are swimming in is going up or down, there are always those who are doing well, those who are suffering, those making things better, those making it worse etc The world is a big place, containing many billions of space-time theatres, small and large, some durable some evanescent, in which the infinite dramas of human experience have been, are, can and will unfurl. The only thing for certain is we’re ALL gonna die. My attitude ? You may have heard it before: be well and enjoy, do what you can, for as long as it lasts :-)

  36. Michael says :

    Personally, I find most of the post in response to Bill’s message to be a waste of the time it took to read them. I find those that complained to be naïve and/or in denial about reality. I don’t think any of the negative events that Bill described are reasons to fear, at least not any more than normal, considering these types of events have happened many times in the past and will probably happen in the future.

    One point I will make is I think that the political situation in the US is certainly becoming increasingly polarized. A statement I constantly make in debates with my friends (and opponents) is that there is a myth called “The American people”. Every time a politician wants to make a partisan point they will say “The American people want…” or “The American people deserve…” and then go on to make their completely one-sided argument. So, what is this homogenous entity called “The American people?” it doesn’t exist. My view, which I know is not shared by many is that the majority of the American people are nothing more than Sheep, who are led to the slaughter everyday my politicians, the media, film stars, etc. First of all the majority of Americans are almost equally split on every issue and the most of the independents are really just vacillating idiots with a lack of commitment to anything. Now, I do not believe that any one side is better than the other, in recent history, the Newt Gingrich Republicans were swept into power by what they said was “…a moral mandate” two years later they were swept out and the Democrat’s said “the American People have spoken” then… Now we have the same thing, the Democrats win and say that the American people want change, and then the Republicans win and say the American people want change. In my opinion it is likely that the Democrats will lose in 2012 and will achieve big gains two years later. So want does all this have to do with this post, well, nothing useful is happening in Washington and it is unlikely that anything will.

    There have always been those that have thrived during periods of chaos and that is the position I intend to put myself in. I am not interested in denying the obvious, like so many have regarding Bill’s post but I am also not that interested in the exact timing of the problems like the Elliott Wave’ers.

    To me cycles of stability and instability are inevitable and though I think Bill makes some good points on what is going to happen (is happening) in my mind rather than trying to predict the future, I try to accurately comprehend reality and respond appropriately to it.

    FROM BILL: Beyond all the philosophizing, be prepared.

  37. RV says :

    Bill,

    I understand feedback is plentiful in this blog, but would you be willing/interested to do survey, asking a general or specific question, e.g. ‘How bad things will get? When?’ and providing a numerical scale from ‘things will get awful’ to ‘nothing will happen’ to ‘everything is going to be just fine’ and under a condition that the survey would be completed periodically within a certain time-span, e.g. now, then in 6 months and in 1 year or perhaps more frequently? This might accomplish quite a few things in a very practical manner in my view, but it would need to be done to know for sure. There should also be few other conditions to control certain variables, but I leave it to further discussion should this become interesting.

    Thank you.

    -rv

    p.s. Should this work, I’d be willing to pay for the indicator.

    FROM BILL: I don’t think that what will happen will be a result of how many people think this or that will happen, though. This is sort of like asking a lot of people who are untrained in mental health diagnosis to give their opinion on what is wrong with Charlie Sheen. Perhaps interesting, but not as assessment based on expertise.

  38. Jim Lunsford says :

    Bill, first of all, your article is not too long. It is merely as long as it needs to be for what you are writing. Not your fault people aren’t interested enough in their own awareness/success/knowledge to pay attention for over thirty seconds at a time.

    Also, one doesn’t need to know wave theory in order to understand, or even come to the same conclusions, as you have. History itself is a harsh mistress for all of your predicitions, which are pretty similar to my own beliefs. However, being aware of the probable scenarios we will all be facing isn’t depressing, it is necessary to survive/thrive in the coming years. I would also like to add that I find the Mexicans (or any brown skinned people) and the homeless will most likely become the new Jew of our fascist-leaning (corporatism being the fancy word for fascism and the form of government we’ve had since the Civil War (in my opinion) though it’s never been as openly corrupt and arrogant as it is today. Think Patriot Act, Food Safety Act (outlaws real farming), the water bill in the Senate now which declares all waters flowing or not to be the property of the federal government, and so on). Citizens are treating these groups just as the Jews, Poles, and others were despised in pre-early-Hitler Germany.
    I don’t think it’s really a conspiracy, or theory, but more of a philosophy that has created this mess we have. However, in such times, opportunity knocks even louder for the observant. Only if you have enough interest to pay attention for longer than the propaganda sound bites one hears on what passes for the news though. Sorry for the long post and lack of focus. In a rush. Loved your blog and glad to see your bringing them back more frequently. Jim

    FROM BILL: People with money may turn out to be the “new Jew.” They are certainly being demonized, and if they all stole the money instead of offering goods and services to people who willingly bought them.

    Certainly we have a situation here were there is an elite who thinks they know what is best (food safety act as just one example) and are quite willing to force everyone else to go along with what they think is best. There is a battle between such people and those who want freedom and individual responsibility.

  39. David Massoglia says :

    Bill,

    I just did not want you to get too carried away on how bad things will get…that is all. Prechter’s social mood is WAY overstating how bad it will get so using his advice as gospel is not wise. The 40% to 50% drop would only come after the stock market makes a new all time high in 2012. Bad but not the 1932 devastation that Prechter is predicting. Your response did make me laugh… I am not trying to nitpick just let you know the leader you are following is not correct on the amount of devastation.

    FORM BILL: I have a pretty good reason for my assumptions about how bad it will get–the past patterns of social mood. My other reasons, which are many, I haven’t even mentioned. The fundamentals of the situation–the huge debt, the centralization of power, the radical groups that are arming themselves and organizing to try to take over, and on and on–even without wave theory, are much more grave than at any time in the last several hundred years (probably since the 1300s).

  40. Santiago says :

    Thanks Bill,

    To anyone interested, I found a link to robert prechter predictions made in 2003 and that are supposedly happening now, there’s also tons of info on elliot waves, you can subscribe and take a course about it for free (I’m doing it, when I finish I’ll get back to you Bill)

    http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/10/15/100-Forecasts-that-are-Materializing-Now-Part-1.aspx

    Bill, you said you have put together socionomics with developmental theories, could you expand a little ?

    PS. sorry for my sometimes corrosive humor, I tend to get carried away ;)

  41. Brian says :

    “I have observed that not the man who hopes when others despair, but the man who despairs when others hope, is admired by a large class of persons as a sage”. John Stuart Mill

    Let’s take a look at a list: population explosion, global famine, exhaustion of resources, acid rain, bird flu and swine flu, asteroid impacts, Y2K computer bug, impending water wars, inevitable oil exhaustion, thinning ozone, mad cow epidemics, nuclear holocaust, falling sperm counts, ‘no way that people would want computers in their homes’, Chernobyl…Eliot Wave no. 2! All dire predictions extrapolated from statistical analysis. None of them have…yet…brought about our undoing. Wave theory is an interesting “hypothesis”, that doesn’t have any better interpretation of trends than other ‘sciences’. Mere repetition that it is ‘real’ hasn’t validated it as ‘fact’.

    The naked, frightened ape crawling out of his cave cannot get used to the idea that all that the black cat that used to hunt him down and drag back to his cave to devour…is no longer there.

    You seem quite taken Bill that you have some activity here on your blog. Well, its just proof that bad news sells best.

    Propagating hysteria all over again. What is it about certain people that they turn the latest fad into their current religion? Yes, times are tough. And yes, we are in danger…but turning the latest doomsayer into a ‘guru’ is a compulsion that needs to change. How many gurus have you followed over the years? This will pass as soon as the next one comes along.

    The real danger is in people withdrawing into their bomb shelters instead of ‘participating’ and doing their best to bring about positive change.

    Prechter is not infallible:
    “Guru of the Decade: CNBC”

    “In the few years before and after 1987, media coverage inflated Prechter’s “guru” status to extremes, including the assertion that his forecasts could single-handedly “cause” the stock market to rise or fall [13] (a proponent of technical analysis, Prechter considered this absurd). In the months after Black Monday in October 1987, subscriptions to Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist surged to some 20,000. That number declined in the early 1990s (as did the subscription levels of most other financial publishers), though “Prechter has done more to popularize and spread Elliott’s philosophy than anyone else.”[14]

    While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, “Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow–But 6 years late,” in reference to Prechter’s 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[15] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

    The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP HAS THE SEEMINGLY REMARKABLE ABILITY TO FIT ANY SEGMENT OF MARKET HISTORY DOWN TO ITS MOST MINUTE FLUCTUATIONS. I contend this is made possible by the method’s loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[16]

    Recently, Prechter has missed the latest portions of the rally in gold and oil. In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. His analysis was clearly flawed, as oil in late May 2008 reached $135 bbl and gold was at $925/ounce. [17]

    Socionomics

    In 1979, Prechter postulated that social mood drives financial, macroeconomic and political behavior, in contrast to the conventional notion that such events drive social mood.[18] His description of social mood as the driver of cultural trends reached a national audience in a 1985 cover article in Barron’s.[19] Prechter coined the term “socionomics” and in 1999 published an exposition of socionomic theory, The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior.[4]

    Since then, the COUNTER INTUITIVE premise of the socionomic HYPOTHESIS — that in contexts of uncertainty, endogenous processes (not exogenous causes) create patterns of social behavior — has gained attention in academic journals,[20][21][22] books,[23][24] the popular press,[25][26] at academic conferences[27] and in research funded by the National Science Foundation.[28]

    AS A PROPHYLACTIC I OFFER THE FOLLOWING:

    Rational Optimist: How Prosperity Evolves
    Book coverBook cover
    Published: May 2010

    “A counterblast to the prevailing pessimism of our age, and proves, however much we like to think to the contrary, that things are getting better.

    Over 10,000 years ago there were fewer than 10 million people on the planet. Today there are more than 6 billion, 99 per cent of whom are better fed, better sheltered, better entertained and better protected against disease than their Stone Age ancestors. The availability of almost everything a person could want or need has been going erratically upwards for 10,000 years and has rapidly accelerated over the last 200 years: calories; vitamins; clean water; machines; privacy; the means to travel faster than we can run, and the ability to communicate over longer distances than we can shout.

    Yet, bizarrely, however much things improve from the way they were before, people still cling to the belief that the future will be nothing but disastrous. In this original, optimistic book, Matt Ridley puts forward his surprisingly simple answer to how humans progress, arguing that we progress when we trade and we only really trade productively when we trust each other. The Rational Optimist will do for economics what Genome did for genomics and will show that the answer to our problems, imagined or real, is to keep on doing what we’ve been doing for 10,000 years — to keep on changing.”
    http://www.worldlingo.com/ma/enwiki/en/Robert_Prechter

    FROM BILL: Straw men, Brian. You are refuting claims I never made.

  42. Robin says :

    Hi Bill, I was wondering how this affects things like, alcoholism, marriage, and social, or mental illness? Most of us come to Holosync for one or the other of these kinds of struggles and although I really think that being aware of the socioeconomic crisis is important, I wonder if it gets us off track mentally and emotionally to focus on all of this. Is there any data about how this negative climate affects the human condition? Just wondering. Thanks.

    FROM BILL: First, I suggest that you go to the source and look at what the Socionomics Institute says about these things, since such questions are EXACTLY what they deal with.

    You might recall that my main message is that awareness solves all human problems that have a solution (many don’t). Awareness create choice. To the degree that you are aware of social mood, and–even more important–aware of how you create your responses to it (feelings, behaviors, etc) those responses become a choice. That’s the goal here. You certainly can’t have a choice about something you’re unaware of.

    In times of declining social mood, most of the things you are asking about (dysfunctional human behavior) increases. That doesn’t mean the amount of dysfunctional behavior you have needs to increase, though. That’s why I urge you, and everyone, to become more aware.

    And, by the way, awareness doesn’t mean knowledge. It means the ability to observe exactly how you create internal and external outcomes, as you do it.

  43. Jerry Dechant says :

    Short note regarding my earlier post in this string of replies. When I say “you” in the text, it isn’t pointing a finger at anyone specifically, it is a generic “you”, so what I’ve written can be taken as impersonal.

    Jerry

  44. Jeff says :

    Hello. I was surprised to read these last two posts from Bill. I thought I’d offer a differing viewpoint from a newsletter I subscribe to called Magnetic Sponsoring I found it ironic.

    Note I did NOT write this, I believe the author of this piece is named Courtney Houde.

    —-

    The Myth of Violence and The Decline
    of Western Civilization…

    Here’s 3 reasons why I hate watching the news:

    1) There’s almost always rubber band politicians flapping their rubber band lies, their rubber band promises, and their rubber band budgets…

    2) There’s almost always some “sick-in-the-head” psycho-murderer waiting to be caught, put on trial, and executed (or not executed) after going on a bloody rampage…

    3) There’s almost always some alarming, terrifying, or absolutely insane apocalyptic event about to go down…(Take your pick: global warming, oil crisis, terrorism, war.)

    In general, it’s a complete downer, and I don’t know about you, but I sure don’t know what to believe half of the time…

    But I am sure that some people would say
    that it’s ALL a great big lie…

    That’s why I decided to do a little research on my own…
    (Forget the news, I wanted facts!)

    The shocking fact is, is that when you turn off the news and do your own research it looks like the world is in fact getting better all the time… not worse…

    Believe it or not, murder, violence, and death
    rates are consistently on the decline.

    In fact, the murder rate in the United States has declined OVER 50% since 1980. What’s more, in 2009 teen pregnancy rates hit the lowest rate they’ve ever been. Whilst, abortion rates have been dropping since 1981.

    Not to mention that living conditions, in spite of the recession, are significantly better for the average person today than they were even ten years ago.

    But please don’t take my word for it.

    Do your own research. After all, you are a magnificent, living, breathing, thinking human being. And I’m sure that you can make your own informed opinions…

    Still it does beg the question:

    “Why do sooo many people think the world is
    going to explode into a gazillion violent little
    fragments any year now?

    Well, I’m not a scientist (or a statistician), so I will have to offer a completely uninformed and probably biased opinion: “Maybe it’s because we watch too much ‘news’?”(Yes, that’s news in quotes. Sarcasm.)

    I’m not saying that the world is all peaches and
    cream and mashed potatos. Because, for
    many people, it is not.

    But maybe, just maybe, it’s not as bad as we often think it is…

    That being said, in my opinion, no crime, however much there is, is acceptable. Because there is no tolerable scale for evil or heinous acts…

    But I believe we can all sleep well at night as entrepreneurs knowing that we are making our world a better place.

    If we touch just one person in any given day, and change
    their life by introducing them to a new product,
    opportunity, or way of life…

    Then I would like to believe that in some small way our industry, and the income earning opportunities it presents, are at least partially responsible for the betterment of mankind.

    As for the the facts (and opinions) I have shared today…

    I don’t expect you to take my word for it…

    But I feel confident that you will discover the same things that I have discovered when I started looking into it…

    I’m not saying that there is no violence, and there is no wrong…

    I’m just saying that it worthwhile to consider that the world might not be going to hell in a hand basket…

    Note: This article was inspired by Steven Pinker’s talk on Ted.com. It’s a fascinating video presentation. That said, I do not agree with all of his controversial opinions. It is, however, something to think about.

    You can find the video here: http://click.icptrack.com/icp/relay.php?r=19305856&msgid=502476&act=YWYW&c=130077&destination=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ted.com%2Ftalks%2Fsteven_pinker_on_the_myth_of_violence.html

    —— end article —

    I always find it good to look at two sides of an argument, so I thought I’d offer up this differing viewpoint. :) I know I’m called a naive person by some and do not have a lot of world experience (I’m only 25), but from my limited viewpoint and education standpoint, it seems to me the world IS getting a lot better all the time, not worst. :) And i have traveled to many countries as my dad worked as a foreign diplomat, so I’m not only speaking from a first-world country viewpoint. I have lived in countries such as Cuba and China.

    FROM BILL: None of this, however, obviates or refutes what I have said about social mood.

  45. Carlos says :

    Bill,

    If what you are predicting comes true I think we are going to be worst than the jews in germany. At least many of them had money and could have escape somewhere else. Where in hell am I going to escape to? I live in CA supposedly one of the wealthiest places.

    After the Soviet Union collapse in the early 90 , the shit hit the fan in Cuba. (Cuba basically live on the Soviet Union) Cuba was always poor but from 1991 to 1994 things got to a new level of poverty. People lost 25 pounds on average , there was no food , soap , public transportation was almost gone. 12 hrs blackouts in a place that is 95 degrees and humid. The city was paralized , people went crazy.

    People got really tough , emotionally tough .I felt that my own feelings of love , compasion , empathy etc decreased a lot and my sexual drive went through the roof . ( I guess as the mammal brain was reduced the reptilian brain became more active) but at least in those tough times I had hope. I could always find a way to leave, to escape abroad where things were ok. (or better)

    Now there is nowhere to go and my former tough self is gone since I got used to life here in the US.

    Carlos

    FROM BILL: In one sense you may be right that there is nowhere to go. The world is very connected, and the powers-that-be have set things up in a way that makes it difficult to operate comfortably outside the system. However, there are plenty of places a person can go where it is unlikely that there will be a lot going on around you. I guess we’ll see. The more aware you are of what is happening, the more likely you’ll be to make rational, resourceful decisions in each moment.

    Personally, I wouldn’t live in California for ANY reason.

  46. Graeme Smith says :

    Bill,

    As ever your own wanderings through this life’s experience, study and awareness therein – and your voicing of many issues that will terrify the crap out of people – have been thought provoking!

    It is indeed impossible to look objectively at the world and not see the upheaval taking place on many levels.

    Many of us have been relatively immune thus far………….. but should be feeling the compassion and concern for people directly impacted by the global events.

    For me, the important thing is to work on my awareness – on all levels, not avoid the difficult issues we face, keep real and try to live for the moment as much as possible. This moment is ALL we really have. We can drag the past up or project into the future but not one of us really knows what is coming!

    I live in Scotland and although things are getting tougher we still have the ability to select and choose many of the paths we walk upon. I agree that soon we may be compelled to walk on paths that would not be of our choosing. Until then I try and appreciate the moment – including thanking you for motivating me to listen and reply to your blog in THIS moment.

    It’s not much but that’s all I can offer to those out there who are getting scared. Fear is a terrible thing to live with and as any of us could drop dead in the next 5 minutes it’s a terrible waste of the amazing life we can still lead.

  47. Rob says :

    Mmm,

    Interesting…. I think I can see where it all went wrong. The US should never have declared independence from Great Britain! But then again Will Smith wouldnt have got to star in a film about “whipping ET’s butt”!

    Up the Empire ,)

    Rob (from the UK)

  48. Bristow says :

    Hi Bill,

    As we type our comments in the warmth and comfort of our home, full bellied and adequately clothed, how easy it is to dismiss out of hand the important information you are sharing with us.
    I am scared, no doubt about it but I want to thank you for caring enough to share what you’ve learned, if only to prepare us by becoming as aware as possible.

  49. ROB FOY says :

    I DON’T NEED THIS NEGATIVE INPUT TO MY LIFE.I UNSUBSCRIBE!

    FROM BILL: I have no power to force you to read what I write. If you don’t get something from reading it, by all means don’t.

  50. Al says :

    Hello Bill. Frankly I find your assertions and arguments higly opinionated most of the time, and your insistence on shifting the topics on socionomics or impermanence or universal laws as the situation fits better, a skill game you deserve an award for. At the same time I acknowledge my ignorance on many of these subjects and do not even want to get in detailed intricacies leading to furtehr arguments and labyrinths made up of sentences in brackets often misinterpreted or comments based on “what you said is so and so” kind of (go on call me ignorant who does not even know what he is talking about..). So, going forward straight to the point I am an holosync listener, have been one for nearly 2 years by now and often wonder whether there is something to come or if it is all about mild effects that do not really change anything in our perception and level of awareness (as you often point out). Honestly I enjoy holosync as a form of entertainment but I have not experienced any shift or significant change in my life, in my awareness. If holosync really increases IQ levels, improves our emotional and physical states, etc. etc. it would be nice to have some sort of scientific evidence, like testing intellectual or spacial abilities before and after holosync sessions. After all Holosync is based on something that you claim to be scientific and empirically demonstrable, although the effects widely vary from subject to subject. Having said that I apologise for my nasty comment, but I have been truthful with my own feelings. See? I have just disowned a shadow….

    FROM BILL: By all means, go test yourself. As for being opinionated, it’s my blog. What did you think it would be about if not my take on things? Who am I “insisting” to that I write about certain topics? I’m certainly not insisting that you read it. This is a free service that a lot of people really enjoy. Do you see many other blogs with this kind of participation?

    Maybe if you did Holosync with a little more involvement than just as “entertainment” you’d get more out of it. The other million or so people who have used it seem to get a lot out of it. Maybe it’s you. Nah.

  51. William Krill says :

    Thank you so much for broaching this topic. It takes courage. I have trouble bringing up such topics to friends from my church. So, bravo to you Bill.

  52. Dear Bill, Thank you for replying. Perhaps a solution to the many concerns you suggest for our future is to apply your principle, “Let whatever happens be OK”. I would see this as meaning we could see these challenges as opportunities for problem-solving and progress.
    Here in Australia we have been hit by severe floods, a cyclone and fires, while across the Tasman Christchurch had the earthquake. Yes, a handful of citizens looted and stole; many more were quite heroic and unselfish in helping with the recovery and clean up. Often adversity brings out the best, not the worst, in people. So why dwell only on the worst outcomes and harshest side of mankind?
    I remember you saying you used to be fond of reading Joel Goldsmith? Why not pull out one of his old books, or other writers with uplifting themes, and thumb a few pages? Just to balance the negative material that has inspired your current blog. We are so influenced by what we read.

    FROM BILL: Again, “negative” is your interpretation of this. I’m am just a reporter. None of this “means” anything, negative or positive. It does, however, have real consequences for human beings.

  53. David M says :

    Bill,

    There is a lot of negative in the financial world…that is a given. However, the destruction you mention is highly unlikely. First, the wave principle shows that we are in a BULL market and we will make new stock market all time highs probably as early as 2012. Maybe when that happens…you will realize that there is no Wave 3 down …that is bunk….Wave 2 up can not exceed the start of Wave 1…so when the new highs happen…that possibility will be completed eliminated. It is eliminated already according to my views of Elliott Wave as we are in a confirmed bull market. This long term bull market…will have a hiccup between 2012 and 2016 (a wave 2 correction of the bull market wave 1 top in 2012)…but it will not go below the lows in March 2009 or come that close. Social mood bottomed in March 2009 and will improve from here. Though some bad things will happen but not nearly the horrors you mention. Second, capitalism is a very strong system and withstand tons of nonsense and yes, there is a ton of nonsense…and will likely muddle through this period yet again.

    Here’s the bet…stocks will not make a new low exceeding March 2009 lows in the next two years and will come within 5% or match all time highs within the next two years (using the Dow or S&P). Clearly you think stocks will crash within two years if the dreaded Wave 3 down happens. So…if I am right…how’s about betting a refund of my Centerpointe fees, eh and I will teach you how Elliott Wave really should be applied.

    Anyway, Bill, I love what you do and have benefitted dramatically from your course and using Holosync and appreciate your diligence. For that, I am truly grateful. Just don’t be so sure of the 1932 type destruction ahead…not likely.

    FROM BILL: I guess we’ll see, won’t we.

  54. Barry Smith says :

    finishing HS4.Your thoughts on some stuff I’ve come across over recent years from seemingly very good sources:
    *think-tanks concluded long ago that nuclear terrorism is simply absolutely inevitable
    *Gregg Braden’s book Fractal Time says (I think) that every 5000yrs or so civilization wipes itself out
    *”pole shifts” occur,resulting in the seas washing over all the continents at 100s of mph
    *in 2-3 generations,the steady decline in US health will result in near universal sterility
    *there’s probably an acknowledged category for this kind of thinking/stage of development(ie, low);I ‘ll say”of course!” as usual,when pointed out.thx,Barry.

    FROM BILL: One thing I’m NOT concerned about is pole shifts.

  55. Joe says :

    Good points Bill and some very good advice on literature however I would like to add: that I have been a subscriber to Prechters EWFF and EWT for a while now and admittedly he has NOT been spot on, knowing that he relies soley on Fibonacci sequences which play onto different sequences and shorter waves. I will not bog you with details but readers should really read RN Elliott the works where Prechter has extracted most of his knowledge from this seminal work. Secondly, Kondratieff wave theory is quite original and frankly quite exacting not to discredit RN Elliot by no means. I would like to add that readers should also read Fractal Time by Gregg Braden who explains the Fractal nature of TIME. Simply that time is an essense, something that Einstein understood ahead of his contemparies. Time repeats itself in fractals (once you read the book you will understand) All nature is structured in fractals using Pi.

    My point is that there is some serious calamity coming (Mayans confirm this in their fractal formula) Simply a repeat/a fractal of time that is destined to happen. Gregg Braden speaks of how we still must make “choices” conscious choices in how we react to what is coming. Having known this for sometime I have used Holosync now for my 7th year and I am deep into the Purification levels, all this with the intent of becoming as conscious as possible, as non-reactive as possible. It has been a ride and I must admit I have had to learn much with the change that has been realized, …..that is much witnessing with a dose of resistance, a struggle with letting things be okay, but hey

    FROM BILL: Please, please, no Mayans. Please.

  56. David M says :

    Christopher,

    Prechter uses pure Elliott Wave…agree. There are some tenets that Elliott did not discover that Tony Caldaro has discovered. Caldaro follows all the rules of Elliott Wave though and has discovered the proper way to count waves that is much more objective than Neely or Prechter. Prechter is wrong again…just like he was for 20 long years when he predicted dooms day in 1987…yes, I had his newsletter and know that doomsday was predicted then…and he missed the biggest bull market ever into the year 2000 and the continuation of the bull market into 2007. His doomsday finally happened in 2008-09 and it is over. Now he states this dreaded wave 3 down is about to happen…yet..it will not..because we are in a bull market…confirmed by Caldaro’s objective Elliott Wave analysis. Caldaro shows we are in Primary wave 3 wave UP with much more to go…UP. Neely and Prechter use methods that are subjective to where counts are …therefore, they are often but not always wrong. The market will go to close to new highs or new all time highs before the primary wave top occurs in 2012…then you will get a good wave down..but no depression. If you invested according to what Prechter said since 1988…you would have lost over 90% of your money according to Hulbert. He did make a good call at the 2007 top…but he made that call for 20 years off and on. Good luck on the doomsday call…well, not really. 1932 replay is not in the cards for a long, long time. Social mood has bottomed in 2009 along with the stock market. Sorry, Elliott Wave is sound…the practioner, Prechter, is not….sorry to burst your bubble…we laugh hard at his market predictions regularly. Time will tell and we shall see. The March 2009 lows will not be broken.

    FROM BILL: We shall see. Please stop, though, with the “my Elliott Wave daddy can beat up your Elliott Wave daddy.”

  57. Christopher says :

    Hey Bill … I wanted to point out, to you and your audience, that from a technical analysis point of view, not even considering Elliott Wave Theory, that the DOW is forming a textbook Head and Shoulders pattern since the high of 2000 … The fall into 2003 from 11,750 to the 7500 area was the left shoulder completion … The subsequent rise into 14,200 was the left side of the head formation and then the fall in 08-09 down into 6500 or so was the completion of the right side of the head … It’s a big head !!!

    So, we have a left shoulder and a head and the picture is progressing …

    The run upwards from that 6500 low into 12,300 or so, where we are now, is the formation of the right shoulder … It does however need to stop its advance soon … Like I mentioned in another post, this run cannot go above the 14,200 high or will invalidate the count as being wave 2 of the C wave … If it does break this high, it could still be a B wave upwards in an expanded flat … Or it could be a new bull run, like some believe … I doubt it, for many reasons …

    In any case, going much higher from here, would not be the proper price action to finish off this nearly perfect head and shoulders either … This baby needs to calm down and chill out about right now … So, I would expect that the advance could end anytime here … If not, we might be looking at something else, as one of your audience suggests …

    Personally, I would have to give way to the count from Prechter, i.e. wave 2 of wave C is about end, and an alternate count could possibly be a B wave ending and approaching the start of the C wave down … I would also pay attention and notcie, as well as take heed to, the fact that by normal standards of analysis, there is a perfect head and shoulders forming that does not bode well for the bullish case … Looks like a bear market rally, ending …

    We are getting right into the time now where we should soon know an outcome … It’s incredible how long it is taking … Looks like we’ll know soon … And we really won’t know for sure what it is until we break to a new high or a new low … And that’s a lot of range … It’ll take some patience …

  58. Christopher says :

    I am making one more point and will go away until part 3 … I find it amazing how some of you write in and criticize Bill as being negative … Do you understand the word OBJECTIVE ? … WHY, I ask you, must a change in social mood that has definite pattern to it in history, observable patterns, make you feel as though Bill has just made this up and is being negative? … It’s not negative … It’s OBJECTIVE !!! … It’s knowledge … Being aware …

    I gather from this point of view that you must EXPECT that everything in life always be POSITIVE … Well it ain’t … And sometimes history gets to a breaking point where things get really ugly … But Bill is not wishing it or wanting it … He’s observing it and reporting it … He’s taking a risk in doing this to help you !!! … He is stating that some other very knowledgable and intelligent people have noticed these patterns and we may be entering one … Educated people that make this their life study … I happen to know it is real in my studies of it for 12 years … This has been coming and frankly, is overdue …

    OK ???? … I’m exhausted by reading some of these comments that obviously have no reality to them … Talk about OPNION … Like life is all a fluffy ride forrever … There are many, many people suffering right now … Without jobs and losing their homes … Governments and states going broke … If you still have your job, you may not feel what is truly going on for many others … AND THAT IS NOTHING COMPARED TO OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD … WAKEUP AND LOOK AROUND …

    I’m done … Thank you …

  59. Kathy S says :

    To Margaret Sutherland.

    Hi Margaret. Where abouts in Australia are you? I’ve been using Holosync for 2 years now and am yet to meet another Holosync user. I would really love to have someone local to bounce things off. I’m currently on the Gold Coast, soon to move to Brisbane. I’ve been looking for a unit for weeks but keep missing out because of so many flood victims doing the same thing. I figure they’re more deserving though since I’m staying with my mum and at least have a place to live. If you’re nearby, I’d love to meet.

    Sorry Bill. Hope you don’t mind. It’s lonely when you have no-one to share your interests with.

    FROM BILL: You share them with me. What, you want to see a film together Friday night?

  60. Dear Bill,
    You comment that ‘negative’ is just my interpretation of the ideas presented in these articles. I have checked back over the text, just to make sure I really did read adjectives such as ‘savage’, ‘vicious’, ‘deadly’, ‘bad’. I write novels, and I would choose these words to convey negativity, as I understand the English language. I think you chose them for the same reason, but if I am mistaken, what did you mean to convey?
    Any impartial reporter who titled his piece “Going to hell in a Handbasket”:meaning to be rapidly deteriorating, on course for disaster” would get the red pen through his heading, catchy though it is.!
    I like your thirsty quest for understanding and have benefited several times from your principles of chaos preceding reorganisation at a higher level. Maybe the world can overcome its dramas and do the same?

    FROM BILL: Okay, I was kidding. I’m trying REALLY hard to be negative.

    Really, couldn’t those words be describing objective facts?

  61. Graeme Smith says :

    Bill, one other thing that strikes me is that so much of what you are relaying on this topic “Hell in a Handbasket” is on an intellectual level.

    I have used Holosync for many years, been through your courses, attended a course in LA with you and Genpo Roshi and read many of your books. I know that you are also a deeply spititual person. I admire the outlook you have on life although don’t agree – or lets put it another way – don’t get some of your stances. I have noticed how much you have changed since working with Genpo Roshi in paticular. Not changed in a bad way or a good way – just changed. No judgement here…just my observation…..maybe it’s me who’s changed…..

    As you said earlier it’s your Blog – nobody is forced to read it or respond to it BUT…………many people “follow” you and voicing certain things that are engaging you at your level of development may not be beneficial to others who are not at the same place.

    It can really freak people out if they are not ready for it. Like trying to pull a flower up from the ground before it’s roots are anchored.

    Humanity has been way off track for centuries with too much empasis on the material and intellecual activity and less and less on the spiritual. By spiritiual I don’t mean religious in any of it’s forms. The religious manifestation currently apparant globally is most definately intellectual. And no, I am not talking about magic, airy fairy spirtitualty.

    For me, I agree that chaos and upheaval are coming. Often things need to break down before the new can be built up. However, I think what is taking place is pre-empting a quantam shift in global awareness. Humanity will be unable to function in the manner we have for centuries.

    It’s at our core – spirituality. True humanity will manifest when this is driving our actions. About this I am profoundly optimistic.

    Thanks for motivating this debate Bill.

    FROM BILL: You see, I don’t think humanity has been “off-track” for centuries. The last couple of centuries has, in fact, been the most amazing period of human history. Human life has, for most people, gone from dawn till dark work in order to stay alive to one where huge number of people have leisure time, the ability to be creative, where we have reached out to the star, explored the world, harnessed energy to do amazing things, and so forth.

    That statement tells me that you did’t really get what I’ve been saying about the human condition. Humans are not perfect or even perfectable. Humans have countless shadows and flaws and are capable of both “good” and “bad”. You see to want humans to be good and are annoyed when they aren’t. That, to me, is unrealistic. Humans are, well, human. They act unconsciously most of the time. You can remedy this for yourself if you’re willing to put in the admitedly hard work of becoming more aware, but humanity as a whole is always going to be largely unaware.

    There’s nothing wrong with intellectual activity or materialism. These are part of being human. A great deal of my message is to stop trying to disown or resist the realiy of the human condition. When you do that you put yourself in a double bind. You are resisting what cannot be resisted. You are resisting the way human being are and the way the universe works. Sure, do your best to make things better and to alleviate suffering. But the human condition is what it is. Demonizing the parts you have decided are wrong or inappropriate is your right, I suppose, but it’s not good for you to do so. It’s a waste of time, since you aren’t going to change the basic human condition (ie, human being’s relationship with impermanence and cause and effect–if you don’t know what I mean by that, read all the posts I’ve done about it).

  62. RV says :

    Thanks, Bill.

    Like your humor.

    Let’s see. Did I suggest that doing a survey would say what would happen next?

    Idea is it would/might work like a contrarian indicator. With reference to DJ, if we’re toppish, people should be hopeful, if were not,- neutral to still skeptical.

    This is not a proof of anything. Don’t want to get into stats. You do the survey several times, plot it against the prices and few may begin to see polarity shifts in their own sentiment.

    You did get into this topic. Watching is a practice. Why not watch the progression of the collective opinion in this blog? Quite a few people here need to track their own passionate/special opinions. Fun idea was,- why not put it to practice via ‘experiment’ as such? I’d play.

    Guys expressing technical views here,- thank you. H&S, huh? Diamond, anyone? Let’s have a poll on this one as well.

    -rv

    FROM BILL: The stock market is THE survey. It is an almost instant indication of social mood, the best we have. What people on this blog think isn’t even close to reflecting anything accurately. It is a self-selected and very small sample.

  63. Chris P says :

    FROM BILL: I’ve made a number of suggestions as to what to do in my responses to the posts of others.

    I’ve never promoted The Secret, which (as presented) is based on magical thinking.

    I fully understand that you do not agree with all of the movies premises or the manner in which they are presented, and I completely agree with you on this. But I do not quite understand how you can make such a statement, or why you even bother to associate yourself with it. While you may not “promote” The Secret as a movie, you certainly have referenced it in your own marketing. From your website:

    As a student of ancient and modern research into the nature of the mind, Bill Harris has studied The Law of Attraction for over thirty-five years with a variety of teachers around the globe. He has dedicated his life to sharing The Secret to creating the life you want as a teacher, public speaker, author, therapist, workshop leader, and business owner.

    Because of Bill’s tremendous success in teaching hundreds of thousands of people how to harness The Law of Attraction to make lasting improvements in their lives, he is featured in the hit DVD The Secret.

    Over fifteen years ago, Bill created Holosync as a tool for developing the mental clarity and sharp sense of purpose needed to master The Law of Attraction. With Holosync, anyone can learn The Secret to creating whatever they want in life.

    FROM BILL: I am all about trying to get people to wake up, to become more aware, to see things the way they really are. I did not know what the point of view of The Secret would be until I saw the first version. In fact, I never saw saw the final version because I knew I couldn’t sit through it again. Since then, I have been publicly critical of the magical thinking aspect of it. I think it’s cruel to tell people who are struggling with how to create the outcomes they want in the world that all they have to do is “put it out to the universe.” I have posted several articles on this blog blasting magical thinkers. And, yes, I have used my appearance in The Secret to draw people to Centerpointe where I can educated them about where The Secret is wrong, and introduce them to the ways that successful people actually create what they want in the world.

  64. Paula says :

    Thanks Bill and Christopher

    I live in a rough neighbourhood that can be savage, at times. Alone with two young teenage daughters too, both full of dreams. The rapists you mention have given me the severe heebies (probably going to google lots about Bruce Lee next, grow a moustache – almost 39 how hard can it be? – wear mens clothes. Find my inner ninja.) I’m not academically bright (my degree is in… *cough* sport), nor am I articulate so it’s been a real education here lately. Wouldn’t have a clue without reading this blog. Thanks for the heads up.

    There’s nothing quite like pending doom to help you focus on what you have and what’s around you.

    FROM BILL: I think Christopher is noting than when society really breaks down, if it does, some men will act in barbaric ways toward women, since that is what has happened historically. I don’t think society is going to break down so that maurading rapists are everywhere, though. If things get really bad, it probably would be a good idea to stay away from the centers of chaos and violence, though.

    You seem pretty smart to me.

  65. What I find amazing is the distress of some of the posters on this thread at the thought that the world isn’t some kind of utopia. Talk about seeing the world through rose-coloured glasses. It’s one thing to have superficial (or erroneous) knowledge of history, geography, politics, economics, etc., but it’s quite another to compound it with naiveté.

    The 20th century, supposedly the most advanced in history, also saw the deaths of well over 100 million people due to wars of various kinds. Africa is a basket case. Europe couldn’t fight it’s way out of a wet paper bag. The stock market crashed, housing values crashed, and a deflationary depression of stupendous proportions is underway. All of this happened after experts said they couldn’t.

    The financial media mostly exist to trumpet messages of hope about the economy and the financial system. The debt has to go away, and the only way it will do that is by being written off. There’s just too much of it. We won’t be objectively poorer after it, but most people will certainly FEEL poorer. That will lead to social unrest, with highly unpredictable outcomes. The rebellions in the Middle East basically started as food riots, so this isn’t impossible, even though you can’t picture it right now.

    You don’t need Elliott Waves or Socionomics to see all of this. You just need to open your eyes, educate yourself, and stop WISHING that things would be different.

    Rich

  66. peter says :

    bill..i find all the comments very useful.. try as i might i can only get the blog to print and not the comments.. am i doing something wrong? is there a way to make the comments print as well? I would like to gather all the references and ideas ..would be easier to sift thru them on paper than by scrolling down this very long screen.. great post..thanks pete

    FROM BILL: I have no idea how to get anything to print. Does anyone out there know this.

    You could just get with the technology, man. Learn to scroll. Paper is so politically incorrect. (That said, I print out most things I read.)

  67. Paul Cowan says :

    False hope is one of man’s biggest failings that is almost impossible to fall for. The constant thinking that everything will be ok or the [insert favourite super hero] will suddenly appear and defeat evil clouds are rational thought.

    This is why we battle with impermanence and is possibly the source of many religions. We blindly hope that this futility is all part of the master plan being played out virtual reality like by our super self in the afterlife.

    I have probably just taken negative even lower :-).

  68. Christopher says :

    A note to David … I understand your position … It is yours to have, freely … I am sure that you and the camp you are in are very convinced in your findings … That is OK … Lke I said, I respect that … However, I do not believe it myself, at least right now … Only because a bull market that is TRUE, is accompanied with much better fundamentals … Prechter has always done a good job of presenting the fact that by all measures, the fundamentals are deteriorating … Looking at the price of gold vs the dollar and calculating the REAL value and price of the DOW and things as such … In reality, it is a lot lower than 12,000 already …

    During a TRUE BULL amrket there are plentiful jobs to be had … There is not a mountain of debt as we have, WORLDWIDE … The fundamentals do matter … And they do not point to a BULL MARKET ahead … They actually spell the demise of a previous BULL MARKET that turned into a complete MANIA and is now disintegrating …

    Only time will tell us … If it is a new BULL, rather than a savage BEAR, I will be happy and stunned, because maybe somebody will hire me … I have design patents at IBM, been a Chielf Technology Officer, worked for IBM, COMPAQ, TANDEM, MOTOROLA and more for 30 years … Nobody calls … THAT, to me, is a picture of a BEAR … In the BULL MARKET of the 90’s, I could quit one job and get 3 more the next week … Mood matters … Fundamentals matter … And it is changing for the worse, without a doubt, right before our eyes … The troubles are plentiful and brewing … All wave counts aside … This is not a normal, good time … It is historically bad on many fronts …

    To each their own …

    FROM BILL: When the next bull market begins, no one will be signaling it. It will happen when mood is so dark no one thinks a recovery of any sort will EVER happen. Social mood will turn positive when there’s no one left to be converted to the negative point of view. At that point everyone will think that capitalism (and civilization) is dead and un-revivable. Bull markets do not begin with signals on the covers of new magazines.

  69. Tim says :

    Be careful, Bill.

    “In all the things we describe we merely only describe ourselves” — Voltaire

    Tim

    FROM BILL: Yeah, so…?

  70. Christopher says :

    SOMEONE HAS TO GIVE A LITTLE CONCRETE EVIDENCE HERE, to explain Bill’s position in a way that can be pinned to something REAL … A scientific way with data that means something … I am trying to add a few of these facts for people to understand easily without Elliott Wave involved at all … Hope you don’t mind, Bill … Your audience can go to bigcharts.com and look at a chart and see what I am saying … Look at the DJIA chart from a long term, i.e. ALL DATA from the 70’s onward … Then google HEAD AND SHOULDERS PATTERN to learn the usual outcome of this pattern … I won’t even include the projected price targets, because nobody will beleive them anyway …

    ABOUT VOLUME

    I am adding to this discussion, that the volume on the DOW is decreasing along with this head and shoulders pattern … It is textbook … Momentum is waning right along with fundamentals … Gold is going up and the dollar down … There are reasons the mood is changing and reasons why the landscape will change because of it … Just the fact that gold is trading far above its all times highs makes a statement of worry on the world scene … It’s all fitting together …

    BACK TO VOLUME

    There was a decline in volume forming the left side of the head, as it should be on the way up to a final cresendo, the blowout in extreme hehavior and a topping process … And on the right, the downside portion of the head, the volume increased significantly with panic selling pressure … Remember how it was ? … Easy to forget, I know … But it was scary and in a matter of weeks was taken apart … 800 point down days etc. The greater knowledge of the system as it is, knew something BIG was wrong … And it is not over … I don’t think so …

    Since then, the final rise back into the left side of the formation of the right shoulder, volume was down even more and weakening … The participants are getting weary and the there are not any left to drive it further, as I mentioned in a previous post … Soon, the bigger, savvy players will exit, dashing the hopes and dreams of a new bull market …

    It’s textbook … It’s not anything new … It’s people, repeating their patterns, which is what Bill is telling you may be happening … I’m just providing a real example of HOW … On a huge scale this time … And I would ask you to look inside of yourself and be real to this fact … To think we have changed as people and that this is a new paradigm etc. or that this will paint a different picture than most other charts do, is ludicrous and reckless thinking, certainly from a scientific, objective point of view … It’s a pattern that is very, very common … And it spells, disater ahead, I hate to say … Maybe it will be different, but I doubt it …

    My take is this … Nothing’s changed about us on this subject of investing and such … Nothing except our insane epxectations of performance viewed by historical standards … We are still greedy, fearful and emotionally driven beings … Exponential curves happen now and then … They did in the 90’s on a level never seen before … The ultimate stock market mania … And since then, mania has spread to other asset classes and you know the results of that too … We are at the end of the road it would seem, by any logical means of interpretation … And it’s taking time to unwind all of this …

    The price is going to be a hard one to pay … And the powers that be, know it … They have been creative and willing to do whatever it takes to put this fire out … I commend them for their creativity and ability to make you beleive … But it’s out of control and soon I think you will see … These things end badly … And they usually end with a spectacular performance of breathtaking proportion when reaching this scale of degree … The disillusion of dreams and unrealistic thinking … Of unsustainable performance … We’re setting a course for more realistic expectations … For humility … Nature is taking us back to the mean … At least I think so, based on rationale …

    Take a deep breath … Relax … Be prudent … Use your Holosync … Find your loved ones, pull them close to you and be thankful for your current blessings … Becasue they’re probably going to change, in some shape or form …

    FROM BILL: Another things you could take them through would be a side-by-side view of the market in the 1930s and the market to day. The charts looks pretty much IDENTICAL, and we are right at the edge of the same cliff the market fell off after the recovery from the 1929 crash.

  71. ebba rabinovitz says :

    to Christopher:
    that’s exactly what’s bothering me: the upmove is sooo much overextended. Look what happened today, and all this in the face of many underlying negative facts.
    Maybe some politicians told the guys at the funds to buy like crazy, if they don’t want to be out of business/politics. Too much printed money around. Needs to be thrown into the markets, people want ROI.
    Until someone cries: the emperor is naked!

  72. Christopher says :

    Well said, Rich … Well said …

  73. brenda mcelveen says :

    Bill, How do I contact Joe from “Joe says Mar 2nd, 2011 at 8:10 PM” ? I would like to give permission for you to give him my email and name and a request for him to write me. Unlike you, I am ok with the Mayans (and I did find myself laughing at your reply, Bill). I like Gregg Braden’s other books, also. Of course, I do find myself understanding and agreeing with many of your words. Much graditude to you, Bill, for this Blog and for Holosync… Getting ready to start Awakening Level 4, and totally dedicated to the entire progam. I sincerely appreciate your information concerning Going to Hell in a Handbasket, both parts. Thanks, Brenda

    FROM BILL: Sorry, but I can’t give out emails or act as a go-between in this way.

  74. Gina Peterson says :

    Wow,
    I would just like to remind everyone this is the game we chose to play. An illusion. We will go on and on this is just the part of the game were we need to buckle up “for it’s going to be a wild ride”. Thank You Bill for warning us.
    Be prepared, as Bill warns and hold on to each other.
    Play well Treat each other with the greatest of respect every chance you get. Nurture one another every time you can and play well together.
    Peace

    FROM BILL: The only illusion is a person’s mistaking their ideas about reality for the actual reality. Please don’t take the typical “the world is an illusion” idea as meaning that the physical world and what happens in it isn’t real, or that it doesn’t cause real suffering for the people involved.

  75. Mike says :

    We can use any mechanical theory to illuminate trends ad hoc. Like any mechanical theory though, it eventually goes the way of the dinosaurs as the environment adapts to a new set of conditions. Paradigm shifts can and do occur, whether speaking of hard line scientific progress or extrapolating the term to more philosophical meanings.

    What seems blatantly absurd is to utilize a mechanical system to make predictions about the future and claim them to be anything other then a belief. Sure to support your belief you have found a mechanical system that can show you trends of the past, and may carry some predictive weight into the near future, but the belief is stall laden with assumption, namely that the conditions of the future will be congruent to your analysis of the past and that your subjective judgment best approximates the objective verdict.

    As long as we bind ourselves to an unsustainable way of living, we will always necessarily reach the last gasps of that way of living before transforming and moving into a new direction. We have been puddle jumping from one way to the next as a species without truly looking at the entirety of our species in regards to sustainable living. Thus a mechanical theory illuminating the ups and downs of a system are only valid until the system itself is transformed. The catalyst for this can either be catastrophe…or possibly it can be radical transformations in consciousness away from beliefs in scarcity/instability and into areas designed to foster abundance, stability and most importantly sustainable living. Perhaps simply by being more aware of the possibility of catastrophe then ever before we can reason our way around it and foster the transformation without the necessity of wars/famine/plague etc.

    While there is a chance I may watch neighbors duel with shovels and steak knives in my front yard over a box of macaroni, I personally don’t see enough evidence to assume this to be likely. Chris mentioned that we are now interconnected in a way we’ve never seen before, and that we will fall like dominos because of it. I happen to see it just the opposite, that these new waves of technology are creating a worldview less bound by borders and definitions and more open to possibility. We seem to be developing and spreading messages of a grander nature then was possible prior to the internet age, and with that, we are seeing the necessity to develop sustainable ways to live, rather than continuing to repeat the cycle of unsustainable to unsustainable with its bridges of catastrophe.

    We’ve been on the brink of apocalypse since the idea first crossed some star gazing chaps mind while contemplating about how it will all end. Perhaps for the first time we can move in a direction that helps us escape the binds of fear and hope and the cyclical traps they create, or perhaps not. Either way, running a blog that has posts stating your goal is to move people away from definitive beliefs and then writing believe me, it will not end well, seems a bit hypocritical.

    You present a possibility, one I completely agree we should be aware of, but at the same time, by no means should we be bound to thinking it as inevitable.

    FROM BILL: You seem to have a lot of conclusions about his for someone who obviously knows nothing about it.

    By the way, should be not follow Newton’s Laws because they will somehow become obsolete? You contention that “mechanical” theories (whatever that is supposed to mean) all “go the way of the dinosaurs” is, quite frankly, ridiculous. Please take the time to learn something about this before you pontificate.

  76. catherine H says :

    Can I ask why you have waited so long to give your view? You have been poked and prodded to do so on many occasions I think. It always baffled/troubled me.

    FROM BILL: I didn’t know you were poking and prodding me. I have lots more views. Should I share them all?

  77. Dennis Caxton says :

    I don’t know if this is off subject, but I have been meaning to post this for sometime now, and here it is.

    I have been using Holosync for about four years now (on Purification level 2) and here’s what it means me.

    I was a shy and nervous child and although always told how good-looking and cute I was. It didn’t matter. My teenage years were just about bearable, but when I reached adulthood, after so many failed relationships and jobs I was very nearly an alcoholic, albeit a functioning one, as they say.

    I didn’t drink to excess – I drank to ‘access’ what I thought was a better part of me, I became more confident, attracted more people to me and was totally confident when I had a drink in one hand and a bunch of prescribed tranquillisers in the other.

    Of course, the crash came one day, I was at work and had the biggest panic attack the earth has ever known, I was rushed to hospital and I thought I was a goner. I had just turned thirty years old.

    Things did not get any better; I had a great position with a television company and then got a very severe case of Bells Palsy, the left side of my face collapsed overnight. I had become deformed – the one thing I had always had going for me (my looks) had now gone as well.

    To cut a long story short, I had six years of psychological therapy (a waste of time and a LOT of money), tried everything under the sun to try to cure the Bells Palsy, including, herbal remedies, acupuncture, cranial osteopathy and even faith healing, but it was still with me. Then I found a great lady in the Midlands of England named Diana Farragher who helped me get my face back – to a very large degree.

    I found Holosync by chance on the Internet four years ago.

    I am 59 years old, about to lose my job due to the recession and will very probably be broke pretty soon, I’m not living in a house that I particularly want to be, and said goodbye to another inappropriate partner almost a year ago,

    But, d’you know what? I have never been happier! Because I KNOW I am going to bounce back, my self-confidence has never been at such a natural high – I’m just a social drinker now, no drugs (except for vitamin pills!), plenty of exercise, good food and valiantly trying to quit the cigarettes (let’s not go mad!)

    And, coming back to the origins of this post, if the world does turn nasty and unbearable, and socionomics may very well be telling us that this is the case – I am in the best shape EVER to deal with it.

    The way I look at it is this, I could so easily have turned into a ‘Charlie Sheen’ figure, but I did not – and Holosync helped to get me where I am today – ready for anything!!

    Best wishes,

    Dennis

  78. To Bill: trying REALLY hard to be negative? I’d hate to read you when you master that skill!

    To Kathy on the Gold Coast. I’m in Newcastle. If you want to email, go to my website at http://www.margaretsutherland.com, and there’s a contact form at the top.

  79. Terry Lyle says :

    Regarding Bill’s response to my little Let it be okay post…long buried under all the debris…
    OUCH!

    My recent participation in the LIfe’s Principle courses led me to think that the first principle was to let everything be okay. Now I’m wondering if I got that backwards and I’m really supposed to focus on what I don’t want an try to move away from it. And then I wonder if Im taking these lessons too literally, or a least too seriously…and then I find out the world is ending (to one degree or another)

    I’m melting,,,,mellllllllting!

    But.

    I’m going to let that be okay.

    FROM BILL: Letting what happens be okay means to EMOTIONALLY let things be okay. It doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take action to change things you don’t like. It is about what you do internally, not externally.

  80. Gloria says :

    Peter, I don’t know if there’s an easier way to get the blog comments to print but a method I use is to highlight what I want, right click to copy (or whatever method you use) and paste into a word document. This way you can format it to use the least amount of paper rather than the slim columns. Plus you can then delete the ones you don’t want, which saves even more paper (and time).

    From Richard Martin – a breath of fresh air: “You don’t need Elliott Waves or Socionomics to see all of this. You just need to open your eyes, educate yourself, and stop WISHING that things would be different.

    Rich”

    Why anyone would want to spend their precious time researching such a complex topic from scratch if things are as bad as Bill says is beyond me. Either you trust him, or not. If you don’t, no amount of evidence will convince you. If you do, why bother?

    There are any number of ways to come to the same conclusions that socionomy has apparently come to, and it all boils down to what Bill has said – the way human beings are, at least at this stage of the evolutionary game. As I become more aware, I often marvel at just how unaware (deluded) I have been in the past. It often shocks me when I meet someone, who I have known for a long time and not seen for a while, how much I have changed and how much they haven’t. Lovely, reasonable people but very unconscious.

    The world is a place of duality, maybe it will always be this way.

    FROM BILL: And, trust me, you’re one of the more aware humans.

    I agree with Rich. That social mood (and other conditions, including behavior) are becoming more negative is pretty obvious. I’m struck by how many people have decided to rail against socionomics or Elliott Waves. Do they think that if they somehow refuted the indicator that what is being indicated would be invalidated, too?

  81. Scott P. says :

    Thanks Bill,
    It is good to have an awareness of what the reality is which is happening around and within us. Watching patterns that repeat give us a chance to prepare and to have knowledge that the last time the “downturn” came we made it out of it into a better and stronger and more aware place.
    I sense that a number of people who are posting are playing a bit of your favorite game – The Game of Black and White – and are denoting good or bad to things that just “are”.
    All the situations that bind us together also move us to look out for one another if we have developed our consciousness enough to look beyond our own selfish survival and remember that the better my “neighbor” thrives, so too the better I thrive. It is the first tier thinking that has created conflicts and continues to wreak havoc, maybe this “negative” mood will push us into the second tier where we may indeed start to live fresh and new.

  82. peter says :

    bill, i was disappointed with your answer to my request for information on how to print the responses to this blog..i print things cause i am on the go and dont always have access to “scroll”..its not a matter of “getting with the program”.. as a full subscriber to YOUR holosync,( i bought the whole route) your response disappointed me, asshole!

    FROM BILL: I’m hardly an asshole because I don’t know that much about computers. All I know how to do here is post things and answer your posts.

    I’m an asshole for OTHER reasons.

    You seem unhappy, though.

  83. Terry Lyle says :

    I really do “get it”.
    I have come from someone who, if I read this blog a few years ago, would be so panic stricken that I would withdraw for weeks. As it is, and I must admit it’s due to holosync (I’m not so sure about Life’s Principles now…although I eagerly look forward to every lesson…the jury is out), I can read these things and accept them. In fact, I’m awestruck at the thinking that goes on around me that I never had a clue that anyone was thinking about!
    So, I am where you describe. I do let things be okay…pretty much all things, all people (people used to annoy the hell out of me). I don’t have much to talk about because I can’t think of any one to complain about. I do plenty of listening though!
    And I am taking action like I have never before. In the last 2 years I’ve gone from thinking I can only barely keep up, to having some extra thousands of dollars in the bank and that continues to grow. I’m not even completely sure how that’s happening except that I take all my Life’s principles to heart.. My debts will be paid off in a handfull of years…pending the doom described above. Yet truly accepting that if “doom” should happen, then “doom” it shall be.
    If the most horrible things happen, who will be the ones who thrive and provide any hope at all? Those who know that “this is what is…let’s deal with it”.
    I really do get it. I feel as though I have lived through this a million times.
    I may live through this a million more times.

    FROM BILL: Good for you. Terry. You have obviously grown a lot.

    By the way, unless it was in a sarcastic way, I have not used the word “doom.” That has come from others writing on this blog.

  84. Terry Lyle says :

    Gloria,
    I have some similar experiences. I want often to share with others where I am and explain how they might see things differently. I have learned to keep quite and listen.
    I have come to realize, after some wonderful “wishful thinking” that others are not where I am. Most others. I am completely aware that most of the people I deal with are no where close to where I am. That is not a to say I think I am “better”. It’s to say I have never felt more connected to other human beings and at the same time so removed.
    I’m under no delusions that the future will bring utopia or catastrophe. I think the future will bring what is.
    I can’t imagine trying to predict the future or to avoid it (although I used to). It has yet to be determined. Although I’m hoping that this blog is not the determining factor.
    But if it is.
    I’ll let that be okay.
    (I just wrote that to annoy Bill!)

  85. Jeff says :

    Hi Bill;

    Although I am not familiar with Elliot Wave Theory I am senisitive to alot of the obvious downturns of life in recent years. My threshold has risen greatly from doing Holosync over the years. The topics that probably bother me the most is the use of chemicals or promoting of medicines on TV( ask your Doctor), the commercials that shows people being incompetent at using a razor to shave and slicing themselves up, the boldybuiler doing a regular situp and pulling a back muscle, etc to promote some new machine, device or medicine. The constant onslaught of images of sickness and inability to care for oneself seems to be madness itself.
    Using Media to make ill health and being cared for the new image of success. My Father was an alchoholic then got off the booze only to get hooked on prescription drugs.
    I have a few friends that travel around the world, they have plenty of money although they dress poorly and look like a homeless person when traveling. I thought I would try this one time, I took a Grey Hound Bus from a less than desireable place. Some younger men came in, individually, began to talk and play video games-shooting cops. I pretend to be detacted. They sit by me. I’m going through my mind about how I’m going to take them out if they attack me. I have a plan and adrenline going. The largest, toughest looking one says something like “Oh I have to take my medication so I don’t freak out on the bus” and he has to take another one so he doesn’t get sick from the first medication. The other guys pipe up and they also reach for their medication too. The large one asks me to zip his bag up because his wrists are to weak to close it. He’s maybe 20 years old, I’m fifty something. It almost made me want to attack them for becoming so…. whatever. Stupid? Weak? Spineless? I still don’t know what to call it. Their health was compromised. I zipped up his bag and he thanked me. Maybe my friends travel like this so they can realize how blessed they are in life, maybe they share compassion and do what they can.

    I also noted the amount of Horror Movies that seemed to be in the theaters. Also the ‘Dept of Homeland Security” sounds rather Nazi to me. None of this seemed to contribute to a better quality of life.

    These events cannot be stopped that you write about but to observe them and take advantage of what you can along the way, see a pattern and make a plan is probably the best we can do.

    When I was young we did a science project of putting a fruit fly and some food in a sealed jar. Soon we had many fruit flies and eventually they ate all the food and suffocated themselves. I looked around and thought that might happen to us on planet earth. The thought gave me a chill. Life as a Fruit Fly with not enough awareness to make a change to survive.

    The fear wave is quit real although being aware of it and finding strength in what ever corner to face it and either stare it down or ride it out. If you are really good, change the energy and use it to ones own benefit. I don’t think you need Elliot Wave Technolgy to feel what has been started.

  86. michelle s says :

    Thank you for the information and knowledge. I have started reading Sowell among other books and am glad to be learning about what I should already know. I am also reading about the Great Depression- as it’s said, the best defense is a good offense.

    I do agree that you don’t need to be an expert in socionomics, or Elliot Wave- just watch an hour of TV and notice the previews for movies and new shows. The majority are disaster based and feature a lot of violence. Of course, that is just the army recruiting commericals. To Paula- I agree- I have 2 kids, 1 girl, 1 boy and thought with Christophers comments I too would have to become a commando in my 40″s. (Christopher- I do appreciate your comments- education is always a good thing).
    To everyone who believes that nothing is happening- look around, watch people, yes there are good things, but there is also a lot of suffering. Grow your compassion.
    I don’t know what will happen, or how bad it will get, but I would rather be prepared, at least somewhat than gobsmacked thinking I could’ve, would’ve, should’ve.
    I look forward to the next post-and reading all of the comments too.
    Thanks,

  87. Kory says :

    Bill: Maybe you should reread David Hawkins calibrations of what might just happen after enlightenment. Are you joining the ranks of the fallen enlightened elite?

    http://www.davidicke.com/headlines/39160-david-icke-perhaps-theyll-listen-now

    FROM BILL: Of all the reading time-waster in this world, David Hawkins is near the top of my list.

  88. Christopher says :

    I’ve decided that whatever Niro is having, I’ll have one of those … Waiter !!!

  89. Christopher says :

    Paula and Michelle, since you both mentoned me, I want to say a few words to you if Bill will allow it …

    My heart is with you both … Paula, you are plenty articulate, ok … Just build a network if you can, of friends and family … Keep them close … You’ll know what to do and when … I can tell you are both smart women … I don’t believe ninja status would help for long, Michelle … Just be you …

    And just live on … Be happy as long as you can … We will all be in this together and will have to adapt along the way if it does arrive … You will not be alone … Humanity will face this, not just a few … Many people will be good and rise above it and show courage … Some will not … Find your own courage and believe in a higher power … There is a higher power to look to …

    I’ll leave it at that …

  90. Kathy S says :

    To Margaret Sutherland:

    Pity. Newcastle’s is just a bit too far to drop in for coffee. Thanks for the website though. I will get in touch. Even Newcastle is closer than Bill.

    To Bill: Great as it is sharing with you, sadly, it’s not enough. I’ll just have to settle for being lonely. It’s not so bad. Even lonely has it’s up side – but I’d love to go see a film with you. If I ever make it to the States, I’ll look you up.

    Back on topic: I agree with Gloria.

    From Gloria: Why anyone would want to spend their precious time researching such a complex topic from scratch if things are as bad as Bill says is beyond me. Either you trust him, or not. If you don’t, no amount of evidence will convince you. If you do, why bother?

    And slightly off topic:

    Does anyone ever free up all their shadows? Judging from Genpo Roshi’s recent fall from grace it seems to be an unachievable aspiration. If someone as spiritually aware as he is still has problems, what chance do the rest of us have?

    FROM BILL: The answer is, NO. Humans all have shadows. No human is 100% aware. That’s what I’ve been trying to get across: there’s no escape from suffering, where times are bad or good. There’s no escape from the human condition. But when you relax about it and stop trying to fight against life, things change. That’s the beauty of Holosync–the awareness it creates causes you to stop fighting the unwinnable fight. Then, you can just live, in an ordinary way. And, it turns out that that ordinary way is actually quite awe-inspiring–regardless of social mood, or anything else.

  91. catherine H says :

    FROM BILL: I didn’t know you were poking and prodding me. I have lots more views. Should I share them all?

    OOOh no thanks. I’m not THAT desperate!

  92. Peter Jauhal says :

    Bill

    Have you thought of setting up a Twitter account? It would be great to follow your thoughts on events as they unfold and you could send links to useful articles as they appear.

    As a long-term user of Holosync, I also want to thank you for everything that you have done to improve my life. I really do experience great joy and happiness every day!

    Peter

  93. Terry Lyle says :

    I am not the same person I was before Holosync…that is for sure.

  94. Paula says :

    ‘Higher power’, Christopher? You talking about magic thinking?

    Surely not.

  95. Santiago says :

    I’m so happy we started this discussion, I’ve found tons of amazing new information. First I refuted Elliot Waves, then I realized they were really grounded, then a part of me started to believe that we where inevitably going to hell. Then I researched more and found out that there might be a wrong count on the Prechter’s side.

    Wow what a roller coaster !!

    For me the moral of the story is, research, investigate but ALWAYS leave some room for doubt, I guess that’s what bothered me about your post Bill, the unquestionable certainty that I felt you so arrogantly exhibited.

    “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.”
    — Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

    “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
    — Bill Gates, 1981

    “Who the h_ll wants to hear actors talk?”
    — H.M. Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

    Humans WOULD LOVE to predict what will happen, and as time goes on we get better at doing so. It’s because our rational minds that we can predict that winter is coming and get shelter.

    Socionomics is the same, it’s predicting something that WILL happen (supposing the theory turns out to be correct). What WILL happen (again if it’s proven to be right) is that social mood will change.

    However, there is something special here. When humans where not aware of the seasons, there was huge suffering because there was no preparation for them. Right now that suffering is almost gone (heating among other things was invented).

    We are missing the point that if the theory is correct, we are now becoming AWARE of it, THAT changes everything, if socionomics and the like start to develop and to be applied in everyday life we will be able to better handle what nature is doing, we can’t stop it, just like we can’t stop winter from coming, but we certainly can (and have as history proves) learn how to handle it in a much much much better way.

    So to those who are denying Elliot Waves and what Bill and Christopher are forecasting, please investigate and QUESTION your beliefs, if you’re open minded enough you’ll find it fascinating. Don’t sell your minds to magical thinking, leave some room for rationality.

    And for those who have been studying this and believe that it’s INEVITABLE that we’re going to hell in a hand basket, I have nothing but the same advice, QUESTION your knowledge. Don’t sell your minds to certainty, leave some room for doubt.

    We might not be able to stop social mood swings (or winter, or night, or death) but we can surely learn about it and reduce the suffering it creates in huge proportions. So PART of the forecast might be right (that social mood will change) and PART of it might be wrong (that we HAVE to suffer immensely because of it)

    I’ll leave you with a forecast from one of the smartest people in the world at that time (any analogies to what’s happening now with socionomics ?)

    “Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.”
    — Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895

  96. michelle s says :

    no higher power. Jesus is a historical figure and the Bible is a history book. I could refer to the lyrics by R.E.M “It’s the end of the world as we know it”. Anyways, we will all see what happens or not, I choose reality -even if it is harsh.

    What I wonder is that how quickly industries such as fast food, retail would collapse if there is a huge crash? Does it basically happen overnight- or is it drawn out? Does it set a chain reaction since so many industries are linked together-and use common products/services?
    Thanks,

    FROM BILL: Such things will continue as long as there are customers who have money and a way to deliver the raw materials they need to provide the product to the customers. There are a lot of pieces involves, though: farmers, ranchers, food processers, truckers or other transportation, the banking system, the energy system, etc.

  97. Kory says :

    quote/”I will say this. Men, take heed. Take care of your women and children and watch over them closely as I believe this will be a severe and scary time for the female gender in particular. They may need to reorganize and perhaps modify their thoughts and behaviors as to become, or least appear, to be more humbled during this time of physical atrocity’s I can see coming. They will be reminded in a brutal way of the PHYSICAL power which man truly carries over woman. It has been forgotten and subdued in today’s world, by women, in their own hearts and minds, in a myriad of ways.”/endquote

    Who is this Neanderthal?

    The Dalai Lama has said ‘that Women will save the world’
    Women have more power today than at any time in history. NOW! You would prefer that they erase decades of progress to hide behind men and let themselves be saved? Men will protect them and their children (ha ha) just like they have been doing since the dawn of time? Just like they are doing in Africa? Are you a religious fanatic?

    Don’t underestimate women. Women can be fierce and unscrupulous creatures regarding their children and their lives. Many women have gotten away with murder because ‘men think’ of them as the weaker sex classifiable as an object to be owned. Women aren’t about to be hiding behind the skirts of men. Women have carried many a ‘big stick’ too.

    FROM BILL: I don’t think Christopher’s comment is anti-women, or was made as an underestimation of women. Men, as a rule, are physically stronger than women. In a technologically sophisticated society that doesn’t mean very much, which has allowed women to contribute just as much as men (thank goodness!). Christopher is saying that if civil law breaks down totally, which may or may not ever happen, some men–as has happened in every other time in history where a society has broken down–may run amok and exercise that extra physical strength to make women submit to them sexually.

    The benefit of “civilization” is that it takes us beyond the law of the jungle, where those who are physically stronger can take whatever they want from others. This is why we need laws protecting the sanctity of contracts, your right to keep and own what you produce or buy (ie, private property rights), and common civil rights. When that breaks down, it’s back to the law of the jungle.

  98. Bristow says :

    For peter who’s looking for a way to print the comments as well as the blog: Highlight the comments, right click on “copy” and paste in a “new” email in your Outlook (I have Microsoft Outlook 2002), just as if your were sending it to someone. Then click on File and the dropdown should give you the option to Print. Or you can Send it to yourself and print it from your inbox. This way, there is no need to format as each comment fills the page from left to right. You can easily remove the ones you don’t want before printing.

    See example below:

    peter Says:
    March 3rd, 2011 at 4:51 am
    bill..i find all the comments very useful.. try as i might i can only get the blog to print and not the comments.. am i doing something wrong? is there a way to make the comments print as well? I would like to gather all the references and ideas ..would be easier to sift thru them on paper than by scrolling down this very long screen.. great post..thanks pete

    FROM BILL: I have no idea how to get anything to print. Does anyone out there know this.

    See, you can even edit, as I have deleted the last part of Bill’s answer… ;)

  99. Christopher says :

    Paula: No, not magical thinking … Spiritual thinking … Beyond the physical …

  100. Christopher says :

    Santiago: I like a lot of what you said this time around, you’re awakening … However, I want to make it clear, regarding a couple of your points …

    1- I want to make sure I remind you that I left room for my own doubt … I am certainly humble in this way … I mentioned this in a post where I was explaining this from a H&S perspective, rather than Elliott Wave … I said it is looking cooked here and needs to stop or we may be looking at something else … A good analyst, in particular and elliottician, alway has secondary and tertiary counts …

    2- As a person of rationale and logic, I see no other solution but HELL IN A HANDBASET in some form or fashion as to correctly pay the price for what I believe is owed … I am not forecasting it necessarily … Just reporting on the objective data and its likely outcome … What I see around me on a large scale, is not kindness, compassion, empathy, value, prudence or the like etc … It is greed, hedonism, lies, debt and denial mostly … Regarding the financial landscape … And I do not like the great divide in wealth I see occurring … I see a reckoning on the horizon … People will revolt when they find out what has happened to their money … The physical and emotional behaviors of that revolt, when regarding the degree of this wave count, is probably going to be painful and ugly …

    3- I believe that to create a a situation where the WORLD is aware of these theories and intellect, it must start with powerful leaders understanding it and spreading this information in the media … Won’t happen … For many other reasons … The masses will never study it or know it and thus make a difference in the usage and understanding as well the progression of it … As of today, it (wave theory/socionomics) is stepped on as negative or false hyperbole … Look at how they treat Prechter when he IS on TV … They give him little time and snicker behind his back, basically … I see so much ignorance on my TV and I know the vindication will come, eventually to the people that are truly intellectual and SANE … Are you going to really listen to Jim Cramer ? … Really? … Not much longer, I’d say … The show will be cut … Finally … Him and Kudlow are Larry and Curly … Mo, well, that just might be US for now …

    Hang tight … I think the show is getting underway … Soon … Like I said recently, the time is here to find out … I believe we are approaching the manifestation of SOMETHING important on the world scene and/or financial markets …

  101. Kathy S says :

    Noooo Bill. Don’t set up a Twitter account. Resist. Resist.

    What’s wrong with the blog for keeping up with Bill’s thoughts as events unfold? It’s so much more sophisticated, professional and you can type more than 140 characters.

  102. Kory says :

    FROM BILL: I don’t think Christopher’s comment is anti-women, or was made as an underestimation of women. Men, as a rule, are physically stronger than women.

    I get that Bill, women know that, have known it a long time. But to tell women to ‘humble themselves’ is idiocy. Women are not Morons.

    Christopher says: I would ask women, if these times come, to stay close to your man and honor him for his protection of you. You will need him, like never before. There IS a difference in us as men and women.

    The difference is when you hear things like this said, It makes it difficult to swallow all the other so called facts and theories. This is archaic nonsense.
    Wanting to rule with fear as a whip.

    I’ve been interrupted, hence lost my original ire for this but will post with a thank you for your response. Much more caring than I expected. Thanks

    FROM BILL: Well, I get that something like that can trigger a woman because of all the times in the past when that might have meant “humble yourelf to your man.” I don’t think that’s what he meant, though. If I were physically weaker than the bullies on the playground, and someone who was stronger that me wanted to protect me, I would honor him (or her) for the protection. Honoring someone doesn’t mean humbling yourself to them. Men could just a well honor women for their ability to provide softer (for want of a better word) nurturing, whihc also protects people, but in a different way. Men, on the other hand, are more likely to provide stronger, more physically protective, nurturing. Wouldn’t it be nice if men could humble themselves to women, and women to men, instead of seeing it as a power struggle? Christopher was talking about how those of us at risk could help each other through dangerous situations, not how we could dominate each other in the process.

  103. Chris M says :

    Hey Bill,

    An interesting thought arose recently reading one of your comment replies. You wrote about the benefit of “civilization” vs Law of the Jungle. Particularly: “This is why we need laws protecting the sanctity of contracts, your right to keep and own what you produce or buy (ie, private property rights), and common civil rights.”

    This was particularly interesting to me because in the current age, rights, primarily copyright rights, are commonly and acceptably violated on an everyday basis. Say, for example, a young adult has over 100 movies on their computer. Say they don’t have a TV in their house because they can get TV shows from somewhere online like EZTV. Say, nearly every piece of information they learn (whether from books or audio-books) and nearly every computer program they use is illegally acquired. Perhaps this person even learned of holosync by downloading the prologue illegally of TPB a year or two before they bought it. From my experience, people doing such things is borderline normal, with most young people doing such things. At the end of the day, enforcement is near-impossible (or perhaps impractical), and (including learning-wise) enriches the lives of those that do such things.

    Many people like the idea of free information and decentralized control. One rich person/organization cannot simply say ‘no’ and expect their works to remain distributed for their monetary gain (there are some exceptions I guess). Presumably this is why disinformation will become more prevalent, and there to be a greater polarization between ‘freedom’ and ‘order’. Also perhaps a change towards media being for ‘brainwashing’ more harshly since public opinion becomes more valuable towards profits, with bought things being prestigious. I personally have a bit of a goal to end the information age, one way or another.

    Do you think the biased (particularly negative) media attention towards Wikileaks is the beginning of a larger crack towards the breaking-down of society? Do you have anything else to say regarding this or the freedom vs order debacle?

    -Chris M
    ()

    P.S, I’ve been getting into “How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World” which is great. I didn’t even know such a book existed. Thanks Bill.

    FROM BILL: I should have listed How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World when I listed important books (or did I?) That IS one hell of a book.

    If someone wants to create or produce something and give it away, and think that’s great. But if thieves–or the State, which often acts like a thief–forces someone to give up what they have worked to create, then creators begin to lose incentive to create. Besides, regardless of who coerces someone to give what they create or produce to another, whether it’s a thief or the government, it’s morally wrong. This is why we need a government (though only large enough to do these things): to guarantee the right to keep what one produces, to guarantee that agreements will be kept, and to stop people from harming other.

  104. Paul Cowan says :

    Censorship it would seem exists in these posts.

    FROM BILL: Unless something intelligent is offered.

  105. Eric says :

    Bill,

    I rarely respond to anything I read anywhere. I’m opinionated, but I usually don’t have much I want to say. However, I can’t resist this time. I have spent over two decades studying the equity markets for some very well known investment banks and financial institutions. One thing I’ve noticed over and over is that our ability to see into the economic future is limited to at most one year. Some will get the next five years right, some wrong, but by and large, unexpected events and developments occur that are very hard to anticipate. So when I read anyone predicting anything like the length of your prediction of bad times, I smile. By the way, I think Martin Weiss is pretty good, but he way overestimated the damage to equities ensuing from the economic debacle of 2008-2010.

    But most of all, I think you do your readers a great disservice by both 1) not summarizing, even at a very high, summary level, these “mathematical relationships” that have shown predictive power for 10,000 years, nor 2) at least pointed curious readers (like myself) to where we can learn about this mathematical phenomenon ourselves.

    You may be right; you may be wrong. I would not presume to lean either way. I’m just saying that the business of predicting the future is perilous…and you offer the reader little about how these mathematically-derived conclusions work.

    I’d like to know – how have you voted with your money? Gold? TIPs? Cash? That’s where you should be, among other places, if you really subscribe to the grim future you’re describing.

    On an entirely different topic, Holosync is a marvelous tool I’ve used for years and I thank you deeply for bringing it to the public.

    –Eric P., New York

    FROM BILL: But I have directed you to where you can investigate the mathamatical relationships I’ve talked about. Go to elliotwave.com and socionomics.com. Go to Amazon and look up Robert Prechter and buy his books. Look up R.N. Elliott. See John Casti’s books. There are many scholarly papers about this.

    Why does it bother you so much that someone would use the patterns of history, backed up by carloads of data, to predict the general trend of history? The world is full of books predicting things. You must be sputtering mad most of the time.

  106. Christopher says :

    Bill, thanks … I could not have expressed that to Kory any better … Eloquent … And spot-on … I wrote some words to explain it further but have decided it is useless … The more I wrote, the more I had to explain … I do believe that this bear market will adjust prices as well as perceptions and attitudes …

    This reaction confirms my analysis and why I wrote it in the first place … It has been misinterpreted as I suspected it would … It had a completely different meaning … One that requires humility and a lack of denial to understand … You know why?

    Because I care and I love women … I will be one man protecting them if I need to … But I’m pretty sure Kory will be fine …

    Where did I leave my club? … Aw hell, left it in the cave … Honey!!!

  107. Christopher says :

    Bill, I want to thank you for all you are doing … You’re a very bright man and a freind … I’ve had fun here … I love to contribute … I want to help … But I feel I should go now … I know that if I laid some conceptual things on the table here about this bear market, things I have studeied for many years now, the truth of it, raw and real, it would bring out more reactions like the one I just got from Kory … And I didn’t get to really explain that on a deeper level of what I have learned and see across the gender landscape … But it too, is not normal right now … It will revert to the mean …

    Yes, there is a serious power issue … One that I believe is underway to a new resolution … I won’t say how, but I think it is brewing and will happen … As the price of the DOW gets closer to reality, so will the power … Nature, is taking over … Bringing things back into a more natural order …

    Women, are God’s most precious creation, is something I have said for many years … I feel that in my heart and my soul … I sing about it too … Anyone wants to know me, goto http://christopheritri.com … I have 3 compact discs there that I have recorded over the last few years … Mostly about pain and love, regarding women … I do love them, very much …

    I never meant to offend anyone … My apologies … And my best to you all …

    Christopher-

    FROM BILL: You’ve contributed a lot to this discussion. I appreciate it. You’re a good man. And, I hope you saw Kory’s more recent post, where she describes a bit of a change of hear.

    As you can see, there is a constant stream of attacks coming at me, mostly from people who are attacking me for things I never said. It goes with the territory. If I advocated the opposite of what I’ve been saying, I’d be attacked by other people. As you know, attacking others becomes the national pastime when social mood turns negative. Ironic, isn’t it, that those who disagree with me about this are blind to the fact that they are perfect examples of the negative social mood they say doesn’t exist?

  108. catherine H says :

    This blog is becoming another reminder of how much we can distort information based on our own beliefs and opinions etc. Have we learnt nothing? Those who think we’re heading for some kid of paradigm shift towards utopia should come on here for a gander.

    I’m not even going to offer up an opinion because I’m already tired of them. Suffice to say I’m as prepared for anything as much as is possible in my situation. That is the message here and if you can’t or don’t want to see it’s value in the current climate then good luck to you.

    I’m a woman by the way (last time I checked) and although I may not have chosen to use the exact words that Christopher did, I knew exactly what he meant. No need for apologies or explanations.

    Women have become so overtly sexual I would hardly blink an eye if I saw one parading down the high street in nothing more than crotchless knickers and high heels. Nothing wrong with that in an ‘ideal’ world, but we don’t have one do we?

  109. catherine H says :

    That’s not my interpretation of what Christopher meant (before someone hammers me into the ground) it’s just a teeny weeny example that we can probably all appreciate to some degree. Some sort of bubble in that area is at bursting point.

  110. Mike D. says :

    FROM BILL: I should have listed How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World when I listed important books (or did I?) That IS one hell of a book.

    If someone wants to create or produce something and give it away, and think that’s great. But if thieves–or the State, which often acts like a thief–forces someone to give up what they have worked to create, then creators begin to lose incentive to create. Besides, regardless of who coerces someone to give what they create or produce to another, whether it’s a thief or the government, it’s morally wrong. This is why we need a government (though only large enough to do these things): to guarantee the right to keep what one produces, to guarantee that agreements will be kept, and to stop people from harming other.
    —————————————————————————————

    Bill, I couldn’t disagree more with your assertion that the incentive to create will be lost if property rights for the creator are not protected. Man is a creative animal and has been since he/she first appeared on this earth. Creativity is driven by passion and inspiration, not monetary gain. I doubt people will stop creating, even if there are little to no monetary rewards for it.

    FROM BILL: However, creation requiring risk and financial backing would come to a standstill. Certainly people would continue to create art and music. But medical miracles? New technologies that require huge amounts of capital to create, test, and produce? Didn’t work out that way in the Soviet Union or China (until they moved toward more market-driven policies, or if they singled out such people for rewards).

  111. Paula says :

    Well, you’ve certainly opened my eyes Christopher.
    I’ve read all posts with great interest, and read all replies.
    Hooked!

    Interesting quote from The Independent ( http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudis-mobilise-thousands-of-troops-to-quell-growing-revolt-2232928.html)

    ‘Although desperate to avoid any outside news of the extent of the protests spreading, Saudi security officials have known for more than a month that the revolt of Shia Muslims in the tiny island of Bahrain was expected to spread to Saudi Arabia. Within the Saudi kingdom, thousands of emails and Facebook messages have encouraged Saudi Sunni Muslims to join the planned demonstrations across the “conservative” and highly corrupt kingdom. They suggest – and this idea is clearly co-ordinated – that during confrontations with armed police or the army next Friday, Saudi women should be placed among the front ranks of the protesters to dissuade the Saudi security forces from opening fire’

    Another article that may be of interest
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/how-to-save-the-world-2228432.html

  112. Kory says :

    quote from bill/”Wouldn’t it be nice if men could humble themselves to women, and women to men, instead of seeing it as a power struggle”/endquote
    Yes, wouldn’t it be nice.
    Christopher, maybe you could write that in a song?
    I really do get where you both are coming from. I too, wish women(&men) would wake up and move on from the fairytales instilled in them. Women spend too much energy nurturing, protecting and saving their men in hopes that men will save them.
    Yes Christopher, I will be fine doing all that I can to protect others and myself. Thanks for your concern.

  113. Paula says :

    @ Christopher

    Nice website, great design. Not really my kind of music if I am honest. At the moment I’m listening to The Specials. ‘Ghost town’ quite relevant – history repeating itself.

    Have you seen this artist (Andy Goldsworthy) before? (great DVD. Rivers and Tides)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3TWBSMc47bw
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTEB3bEGprY&feature=related

  114. Rob says :

    Hi all,

    I have a couple of questions for Bill and Christopher. They are with regards to application of the Elliot waves to markets.

    We know that the Dow Jones is the best marker for judging the global social mood, I guess because the US has the largest economy in the world. Does the application of the Elliot wave of the Dow Jones ever contradict with the application of the Elliot wave to other markets? For example if there is a sudden change in the Dow Jones, does it ever seem to contradict what the Elliot wave may predict in the housing market, or any other type of market?

    The UK housing market is grossly overvalued, and has been growing since approximatively 1995. In the last few years it has stagnated and now could be showing signs of the second half a ‘double dip’, with the second dip possibly going into to a quite severe fall. This possible sudden fall would need some sort of ‘catalyst? This would coincide with what Christopher was saying about a massive double dip in the Dow Jones, followed by a stock market crash? Im wondering if the two are linked in some way?

    Any thoughts on this? Im only going at this from a layman’s point of view, so any thoughts would be great.

    Great posts Christopher, thanks for the the link to the Elliot wave info.

    many thanks

    Rob

    FROM BILL: Christopher is probably more qualified to answer this thatn I am (and, really, you should consider looking into Elliott Wave stuff yourself, as doing so does answer many such questions), but I’ll make a few comments.

    The wave structure of the Dow (or the S&P, the Russell 5000 (the broadest of the stock markets in the West, tracking the most stocks), the NASDAQ, etc., doesn’t claim to answer questions or make predictions about the housing market or other areas of the economy, per se. All of these, however, are a reflection of general social mood. Because these markets are heavily traded, and that trading is reflected moment by moment (at least when the markets are open), they are the best reflection of social mood we’ve got.

    What Elliott wave theoreticians and socionomists have done (besides making predictions about the markets based on the PROBABILITIES that the wave counts will turn out in a certain ways) is to study how other human behaviors seem to follow the changes in social mood described in the markets.

    So it might be noticed, for instance, that in times of declining social mood (big picture–this doesn’t mean declining social mood in a short-term time-frame) real estate prices tend to decline and in times of increasingly positive social mood tend to increase. There are probably people following real estate prices themselves and noticing Elliott waves in those prices by themselves, or following the prices of the stocks of major homebuilders, etc. In positive social mood times people feel more optimistic, so they spend more money, credit is easier, etc., which bids up prices. In times of declining social mood, the opposite happens.

    The bigger the picture, the more sure the predictions, but also the more general they are. The more minute the moves in the market (and therefore in social mood) the less valuable the information becomes, and the less reliable. Also, the more people involved in the market, whatever it is, the more reliably it reflects social mood.

    What the people who study this have done is to plot all kinds of human behaviors against the stock market moves, noticing that when the market is going up–a reflection of positive mood–certain things happen, and when the market is going down, other things happen.

    Perhaps Christopher can add his 2 cents (probably more than 2 cents).

  115. Kory says :

    Dear Bill,
    I wish I could edit too. Just one more thing here.

    Christopher says:” I want to help … But I feel I should go now … ”

    Grow a spine Chrissy. Or, are you too highly evolved to mingle with us mere mortals?

    Your Humble Servant,
    Kory
    PS:Not sure this is gonna make it on board.

    FROM BILL: Yeah, Christopher. Don’t wuss out on us.

  116. Mohammed says :

    Bill…reading through the posts, I notice that you have attacked everybody who did not agree with you. Yes, you are a perfect example of the negative social mood which you say exists. Reading some of the comments about hatred and so forth against Muslims from your previous posts are also indicative of the negative social mood you refer to. Seems like the Muslims will be new Jews when people start killing and raping as Christopher points out. How do you know ALL Muslim leaders want to kill Americans and Jews etc? I grew up and spent more than half of my life in a secular country with over 200 million muslims in it and there are a lot of muslim leaders of small comunities who are focused on service and charity. These people dont have the resources or time to appear on Youtube and google where you seem to get all your knowledge of Muslims from. Unless you claim to have spent several years with communities like these, your words are hollow. Most muslims or people of any religion for that matter are just trying to make a better life for themselves and their families and dont have the time to hate. You have a lot of power with the influence and respect due to Holosync , all the great talks you have given, all the good books and ofcourse this blog too, which so far has been a source of good information. You have to be more responsible than your readers.But you seem to be becoming very radical lately . I hope this does not escalate into something worse. Good Luck !

    FROM BILL: I have no doubt that many Muslim leaders of small communities are not saying or advocating what I have been talking about. I’m also quite sure (as I have already said) that many average Muslims are not on board with what these guys want (though I’ve seen a lot people people in the crowds during the recent unrest chanting “death to America, death to the Jews,” and telling the reporters they hate them and want to kill them).

    However, the major political leaders in Islam are advocating a caliphate, and they DO want to spread Sharia law, including to the US.

    I challenge you to find a single sentence in anything I have written when I say I hate Muslims. What I hate are groups, whether religious, political, or otherwise, who want to control others or cause suffering to others. I don’t care what group it is, if they advocate or carry out such actions, I’m against it. To twist that into hating a certain group is a long-standing tactic of demogogues. It’s called an ad hominem attack:

    “ad hominem: Latin for “to the man.” An arguer who uses ad hominems attacks the person instead of the argument. Whenever an arguer cannot defend his position with evidence, facts or reason, he or she may resort to attacking an opponent either through: labeling, straw man arguments, name calling, offensive remarks and anger.”

    You can twist what I have said to mean that have have a grudge against Islam if you want, but it is a dishonest and intellectually lazy tactic. I am against those who cause suffering in the world, regardless of what affiliations they have.

  117. James Wilkinson says :

    Bill,

    it’s called severely negative social MANIPULATION…if you have a bunch of mindless sheep (which most on this planet are) it’s very easy to manipulate them into a preset agenda, and that’s what’s going on…it just has nothing to do with your waves…that’s just such a pile of…! this downward spiral started with an occult ritual that was 9/11 now if you don’t understand this kind of stuff (as above so below) you shouldn’t even start posting about this stuff…sorry I respect your work in its entirety but this wave stuff you advocate is just such an incredible pile of… .

    Regards James

    FROM BILL: The urge to manipulate is govened by social mood, however. There have been several studies about authoritarianism and social mood. Insteresting stuff. Look at the evidence before you speak!

  118. James Wilkinson says :

    Bill,

    it’s called the NEW WORLD ORDER…it’s an AGENDA unfolding…and it has nothing to do with fucking elliott waves!

    Regards James

    FROM BILL: Yes, there are people who want “a new world order.” And, the desire for such things, and the willingness of people to go along with them, waxes and wanes along with social mood. If you’re not willing to look at the evidence of this, then you’re clearly not very open minded.

  119. Alan H says :

    I agree with Richard Martin on this one. Also Richard, if one studies history objectively, one will find that the majority of the people never “get”it or “awaken”. Thats why the whole Age of Aquarius/2012/Global awakening is not going to happen in the way that certain people think. Other than a few new gadgets to play with, we are no different now than 10,000 years ago. I think what really urks people is that deep down they know they had a part to play in this mess that we are in, and that bailing out of it is a pipe dream! As soon as it hits this country ill cancel my cable subscription to watch the shit storm unfold! (theres not much on tv anyway). I hope you all find peace.

    FROM BILL: I agree that in many ways human nature is the same as it was 10,000 years ago. However, if you read my series on human development you will see that many new developmental perspectives have appeared since then, which does change how humans behave and see things. These perspectives are holonic, in that they build on each other, as atoms combine to create molecules, molecules to create proteins, proteins to create amino acids, etc–you can’t have proteins before you have what they are mode of, and there developmental perspectives also build on each other.

    As a result, humans individually (as well as societies) go through these stages during life, often stopping at a certain point (each stage is a useful way to navigate life until it isn’t–as long as one’s stage is working, there’s no push to evolve to the next one).

    Societies also develop through these stages, and each stage has certain characteristics. In terms of what’s going on in the world, democracy, for instance, doesn’t become possible or desirable (or even understandable) until a certain stage of development. This is why it is difficult to have a democratic style of government in the Middle East. Not that there aren’t people in the Middle East who are at higher developmental levels, but “the center of gravity” of Middle Eastern societies is one where highly centralized top-down government happens.

    There are other places in the world where tribal types of societies are more common–a developmental level that preceded what we see in the Middle East.

    I won’t go into this more deeply here, but if you’re interested you might want to read those posts, which are at the very beginning of the blog, or google Spiral Dynamics, which is one easy to understand version of these stages (Ken Wilber talks a lot about the various models of human development, and has integrated many of them into a single approach). I suspect that this is another topic that will piss some people off, since it doesn’t see humanity as completely homogenized, as some people seem to wish it were.

  120. Christopher says :

    Thanks, Bill … I meant to contribute something … I did have well intentions …

    Like I said, my analysis was validated, at least in-part, by her response and the actual fervidity of it … No fear and a false perception of her power as I see it … And from there, it’s too complicated to explain … It’s not my blog, it’s yours … I could write pages on it … I have … And I don’t feel like getting yelled at and called names for my knowledge and insight … I’m not a cave dweller … But believe me, there are some out there … Many … Hell, they scare me too … You would have to shift your mind over and down a couple of notches to accept the visions … It’s a view, perched from a platform of humility … Realizing your vulnerabilities … Your weakness etc in a new landscape … And that comes with humility … My prognosis is based on living in the future, not right now, and making projections based on the wave count being somewhere around the following:

    v of iii of 3 of c of (a) of IV …

    translation –> hellish / back to the past / regression

    You would have to understand the significance of this position in TIME / HISTORY where we sit now … It is monumental … It sets up for a regression in civilized behavior based on finding ourselves with a lack of everything we are used to in modern day life … It would raise tensions exponentially … It could usher in lawlessness and rudimentary survival tactics … Easily …

    If you can envision this scenario, only then, would Kory and most other women understand me better and know that I’m one of the good guys, trying to protect them … It would be a very different landscape from that of today … You’d have to shift your thinking … If we do get there, which I believe we will based on the chart, her perception of her so-called POWER, will have changed significantly … Mark my words on that … She would learn that her power has been afforded TO HER, over time, and not been attained BY HER with force of her own … Not physical force … It is has been granted to her under the temporary guise or semblance of the civility and agreeance of MEN … The cloak may be coming off … I see it slipping … I feel it … A power shift from emotional, civil, philosophical, spiritual, agreeable etc back to PHYSICAL … We would regress in many ways if this wave count is true … Shocking ways … And we’re on the verge of finding out …

    You have great insight, Mr. Harris … And thick skin … I hope that you and I will continue to be friends and speak … You have my number … I have yours …

    Onward thru the fog …

  121. michelle s says :

    As always, interesting on many levels.
    Christopher- I think that people understand what you mean- I do, but I have no desire to be burned at the stake because I am a woman, and I will fight to the death to protect women- as I hope ‘civilized’ people would. If there is no civility- all is ‘lost’. I will not go back in time.

    For one of the above posters and Islam- familiarize yourself with the work of Aayan Hirsi Ali and Wafa Sultan- women who were Muslim (emphasis on the were)
    Also- women on the forefront won’t stop anything, or men from shooting- look at the demonstrations on the Ivory Coast

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/africa-mideast/six-women-killed-during-ivory-coast-anti-gbagbo-protest-thousands-flee/article1928155/

    Thanks,

  122. Yvette Johnson says :

    Bill is raising a hugely important issue here, and one that we all need to take very seriously. In spite of the fact I had never heard of Elliott waves before I read this blog, I had long ago come to similar conclusions as Bill about where world civilization is heading.

    To the extent that, in our globally interconnected cultures, human beings put their own selfish, short-term interests ahead of the common good, things can only dissolve into conflict and chaos. I’m not implying that people are malevolent, just that the “common good” is so complex, so all-encompassing, that no human mind can comprehend it. Each one does their best to make sense of it, and then concludes that they are right and everyone who disagrees with them is wrong. Hence the acrimonious disputes about the economy (to tax or not to tax, deficits or balanced budgets, capitalist vs. socialist, free-market vs. protectionism etc.), about the environment and global warming, about religion, morality, war . . . the list is endless.

    There is nothing new about this of course. It’s been going on for millennia. What has changed is that now, what goes on within one culture affects every other culture. The wealth of advanced nations in the past relied heavily on exploitation of less developed ones. Now those less developed countries are catching up and demanding the same quality of life the privileged West enjoys, so the balance shifts. We become competitors for the same resources, for food, wealth, power, and influence.

    This is where the optimists scare me. People who don’t understand the new paradigm, who believe our way of life can continue basically unchanged, who think they are entitled to the comfort, wealth, social order, and hegemony they have enjoyed till now, actually compound the problem. By trying to fix current and future instability using the methods of the past, they adopt inappropriate solutions which they hope will favor their personal interests but end up exacerbating the tensions between competing groups. The more far-reaching their decisions, (take global warming, for instance) the more they will impact other cultures, and the more those harmed will be prone to anger, violence, revolution, civil and international war. If you doubt things could get that bad, maybe you should rent the DVD of “Hotel Rwanda.”

    This does not mean we should abandon hope or even optimism. Rather, I agree with those who emphasize the importance of keeping these threatening issues in mind. Firstly, if we all try to stay aware of how our choices impact others (other economic groups, religious groups, ethnic groups, nations, the environment, the planet), there is some chance we will be more reasonable, kinder, and less given to anger and violence when we don’t get what we want or when we lose what we have. If we try to keep in mind how inadequate our human understanding is, we may be more humble about our opinions, less strident in our demands, more willing to compromise, less self-righteous about our beliefs. If we try to think clearly and compassionately about the suffering of the homeless, the starving, the penniless, the victims of repression, persecution, and violence, then perhaps we can hold in our minds the realization that these things could all happen to us too.

    It’s only by being realistic about what the future may hold that we will be able to make the best possible decisions, starting now, and continuing to our final breath. If our present order collapses, we will know why, and how, and what our options are, and be at peace, rather than succumbing to terror and anger and anguish.

    YvetteJ.

    FROM BILL: Part of what I’m trying to get across, not just in these posts about social mood, but in most of what I’ve said since I started the blog, is that human being are capable of both ends of the spectrum–great love and compassion and tremendous evil. And, in times of positive social mood we tend toward our more inclusive and caring characteristics, and in times of negative social mood we tend to exhibit the darker side of our nature. Social mood drives us.

    And, further, the more aware you are the less likely you will be to be unconsciously absorbed in the social mood of the day.

  123. Terryl yle says :

    I like yodeling. It really saved me in a very difficult time. To me it connects my life to the absolute base of being. It’s very simple.
    Yet, I understand that few others can comprehend this. I’ve read all these very elaborate posts, and have learned more in a few short weeks than I have in years. That is why I love these blogs…I have never even thought of these things before.
    You all have made my life a greater event than I ever knew it could be.
    I am truly grateful for all of you.

  124. Santiago says :

    Christopher:

    Thanks for commenting my post, I feel that you are an intelligent, aware and sensitive person, I always try to learn from people like you. I do have some comments on your comments about my comments …..

    1. “I want to make sure I remind you that I left room for my own doubt … I am certainly humble in this way” – I’m pretty sure you did and specially I hope that the doubt wasn’t left in the past and that it’s still with you, doubt and wisdom continuously alternate, they’re not separate, I know it sounds like spritual mumbo jumbo …. but it’s true.

    2. “As a person of rationale and logic, I see no other solution but HELL IN A HANDBASET in some form or fashion as to correctly pay the price for what I believe is owed” – Please forgive me for saying this, but I see guilt strongly coloring your opinion.

    I have felt exactly like that. When we awake (not only intellectually but actually feel it in our bones) to the suffering that humanity has created on itself, and when we see that we have been a part of it, I think it’s just logical to feel shame and guilt. However, this feelings have to be integrated (this means not denying them but giving them their right to exist) and then transcended (not getting stuck in them but actually letting them transform into a different energy).

    You see, in a way – and this might be pretty controversial for some – THIS IS WHAT NATURE WANTED, nature evolves in the most, well, natural way. And WE ARE A PART OF IT, WE ARE IT. We are not running the show individually, it has its own agenda. And things have to get bad in order to change, otherwise there would be no evolution, this is exactly what Elliot waves is saying. (I also learned a lot about this from you Bill, so I take the opportunity to thank you once again)

    So yes, we can (and maybe have to) feel guilty for what we have done to ourselves but we must also transcend this feelings, we most understand that we DON’T HAVE TO DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN, at least not in the same way. When parents don’t deal with their guilt (which they got from THEIR parents) they will pass it on to their children.

    So let us feel guilt, and let us also go beyond it.

    3- “I believe that to create a a situation where the WORLD is aware of these theories and intellect, it must start with powerful leaders understanding it and spreading this information in the media … ” – One of the beauties of evolution … it always finds it’s way ….

    During the dark ages, knowledge was restricted to the people in power (the church), this way it was easier to control the masses. But even then it was impossible for the church to keep it that way, knowledge found it’s way, it can’t be stopped.

    Now, in a world as connected as the one we live in, If this theories work, they will be known and applied. I’m the perfect example, I can say that I gained a fair understanding of this in a couple of weeks, not nearly as detailed as yours or Bill’s, but I get the big picture. There’s even a free course online.

    Of course not everyone will be interested in this, but not everyone has to in order for this to be applied in an effective way.

    Humanity is a beautiful paradox, we can be greedy, selfish and cruel, we can slaughter millions. And we can also go beyond our limitations, we can create amazing systems and ways of living, we can connect and work together, we can save millions.

    This blog is an “elegant” mini example (I know you like that word Bill). I see people attacking each other and then forgiving each other, I see people holding like crazy to their opinions and I see people having an open mind that is willing to listen.

    The big chart shows a regression and there’s a lot of ground to it. I am not denying this fact at all. If this is the most efficient way for evolution to unfold then that’s the way it’s going to be. Just remember that we didn’t have the chart before and now we do.

    Thanks again Christopher for sharing your insights, please keep them coming.

  125. Terryl yle says :

    Okay…I got carried away with my love for all of you. (That’s not to diminish my love by the way,,,I find I have plenty to give) But I have mentioned before that I have never felt such a connection with other beings since I started holosync. I used to feel I was alone. I now feel, so strongly, the connection with others.
    But, to Bill’s point.
    I used to absolutely freak out at the slightest bit of “bad news”. But, since Holosync and Life’s Principles courses, I am okay with what is.
    I know that may seem naive or even blithe. But I am totally aware of the horrors that man inflicts upon man. Yet, that is what we choose to do. We choose it. We choose it. I repeated it because I truely realized…we choose to bring harm to others.
    Yoikes! I have to think about that.

  126. Terryl yle says :

    and to oursleves…Yoikes!

  127. Caveman says :

    Yvette … If everyone or even a majority thought as you do, which is compassionate, kind, forgiving, aware and much more, we would certianly not be looking at this situation at all … Unfortunately, they have not, do not, and will not … They are the exact opposite … And they ARE the majority …

    Too bad everyone does not have a mind like yours … And a heart like yours too … Bless you …

  128. Caveman says :

    Michelle … I wouldn’t think you’d have a desire to be burned at the stake … What I’ve tried to get across is that there may still be entities on the loose that want to do it to you anyway … Because of THEIR BAD MOOD … You can fight all you want … Great … My point is that you’ll be fightiing a powerful, angry entity that could be merciless … Formidable … IF, things deterioate to a point I can see possible … Just shut off the water and electricity or empty the gas stations … That means no food on the shelves and no cars … With the troubles brewing in OIL LAND, you don’t have to work too hard in your mind to see the poosibilities … Throw in the financial collpase and there you have it … A big, huge, angry, frustrated mob … Hungry and thirsty …

    You might not go back in time, but many others will … That, is my point …

  129. James Wilkinson says :

    Bill,

    maybe you want to watch this:

    http://www.stansberryresearch.com/pro/1011PSISBBVD/PPSIM309/PR

    Regards James

    FROM BILL: Already have. That this is even up on the web is another indication of the condition of social mod. This is the sort of information that is disseminated in times of declining social mood.

  130. Caveman says :

    James … I understand your place … I have studied deeply, the conspiracy corner of all of this … I do believe in the possibility of the presence of some very corrupt, powerful entities, my favorite word right now, ok, rather than men or women, that could possibly be manipulating and engineering some things to gain a stronghold on mankind … To weaken us all … I won’t go any further than that …

    I will say also, that you obviously have not seen Elliott Wave theory at work … You would have to study it and invest some time to understand how foolish you are to say it is bunch of crap … It is real and useful … It helps spot areas in time where you can see mania behavior … It does mark points in time that can be related to mood … What goes up, must come down … And it does it in patterns, believe it or not … Discernible ones … Using wave theory, you can predict more accurately where the next likely moves will go and based on fibonacci math, how far and in some fashion, the time it will take …

    What you are talking about is very possible and I have always taken it seriously … I’m aware of the idea of the aluminati and much more … But Elliott is a way of looking at the financial markets and reading them … A tool used to see where we are in a certain progression … The other stuff, conspiracy, wrong doings, master control etc, if happening, is all encompassed inside the mood that drives and prints the chart of the DOW …

    Two differnt things … Both very relavent …

  131. Caveman says :

    Kory, my spine is fine … Ready to hear your voice … Waiting for you to teach us all something new …

  132. Caveman says :

    Paula … Thank you … I’ll check that out …

  133. Caveman says :

    Catherine … Thanks for the understanding … I can’t say things the way everyone would like to hear them … And that is a delicate subject …

    Appreciate cha …

  134. Caveman says :

    Rob … There are seemingly tight relationships by the way the media plays it to you … For instance, you’ll hear, The market went down today because the housing report came in and new home sales dropped off etc … And they attribute short term news of one asset group or sector to the subsequent moving of others … In-part it is true … But only for the very short term … Bursts … They are not of significance for the medium to ling term … News like that only makes small blips on charts when you view them later from a long term perspective …

    Precther and EWI have proven that each entity, there goes that word again, this time speaking of companies, sectors, indices, asset types etc has its own distinctive wave count … You can have housing getting hit hard to the downside while commodities are in a sharp rally etc … Other global indices are not in lockstep with the DOW either … Although major global markets do feed off each other from open to close and there are similarities in global markets right now … Emerging market indices have gotten ripped lately, way ahead of us … The DOW and the S&P, yes, lockstep … Yet they have lost their mirror … They used to be really, really tight with one another … They have diverged a bit in the last couple of years … Still tight but not real tight like they were … Nasdaq is really in the same boat as them, although harder to discern from the price structure … From the wave count, Naz is right in lockstep and will fall again with the DOW and S&P … It’s just that the naz is in a large scale B WAVE not a WAVE 2 … Similar, but a bit different … The major direction is the same … DOWN, DOWN, DOWN, in a burnin ring of fire …

    So the answer is that each market, sector, comapny, index or whatever it is that has a massive amount of players in it, has it’s own wave count … And that count can be very different from others … They all vary … Some are in lockstep and some not … That is why there is always a bull market in SOMETHING, even during a major bear market and vice versa …

    If you can figure out what’s going up and what’s going down, well, you have the magic bullet … It’s hard to do … Elliott can help … But none of it is easy …

  135. Caveman says :

    Rob … The housing market, in general, globally, is not done getting its spanking … Not hardly … And the commercial side will get it even worse than the retail side …

    It’s a long way down from here … IF, the wave count we believe in is correct … Ready to manifest … Hold on … It’s coming … No matter what, I would NOT be long stocks right now … Or real estate … Or much of anything …

    The play is cash … Preserve it …

  136. Caveman says :

    James … You know I meant illuminati … I’m tired …

  137. Kory says :

    Bill, I wish to apologize for upsetting your friend and to Christopher for any suffering I may have caused.
    Sincerely,
    Kory

    Have no fear for I have seen death and it is beautiful.

  138. If, in 1911, someone had forecasted what Europe would look like 30 years hence, then it might have taken the form of Christopher’s prediction: short on the specifics of the events, but long on their character. But still, how helpful is it?

    Personally, I’m not convinced that mood plays the role in history that Prechter and his associates claim for it. I have read most of Prechter’s books and followed his predictions closely (Theorist and Financial Forecast mainly) for about 4 years, until about 2 years ago. I don’t buy the hypothesis that social mood is a major cause or driving force in social events, as he claims. In other words, Elliott Waves and mood may very well be causal within the confines of highly bounded contexts, such as the stock market and other financial markets (but even then, see my comments below), but outside of that, where there are many agents working with multiple motivations, it is simply too reductionist and may even be wrong.

    I’d like to point out that I do believe the world is changing, and not necessarily for the better. Where I would differ is in what the cause is. My knowledge of history, sociology, politics, economics and human psychology brings me to take a much more multi-factor approach, and I’m not a big believer in forecasts or predictions. Take my comments as from someone who is sympathetic to the idea that it’s not all love and kisses (see my quoting of the lyrics to The Age of Aquarius above), but who doesn’t necessarily adhere to the same explanations. In other words, I’m in the MOOD to debate this.

    The problem with socionomics, and many other forecasting systems, is that in many cases they forecast trend or fashion changes in areas that tend to swing between extremes in any case. Take the example of car designs. Prechter claims that when social mood turns nasty, cars get rounder around the edges, whereas when it is up, they get boxier. Or maybe it’s the other way around. Well, my point is that that is no different than saying that there will be widespread darkness tonight followed by brightness in the morning. As for the wider claim of social mood swings, yes, as individuals our mood does tend to go from good to bad, sometimes several times a day. It can even affect other people’s moods, or vice versa, but generally speaking, it is possible to say that mood oscillates. The real question is not that, but rather whether it is an important factor of social, political and economic change. In my opinion, it isn’t.

    I think it is somewhat causal in the stock market, especially at trend changes. I think it also plays a role in other bounded contexts, such as in sports stadiums. But in the real world, over long periods of time, I think there are other endogenous factors at play that are far more likely to be the cause of social change. Notice I said endogenous. I’m with Prechter and Bill and Christopher in believing in (largely) endogenously driven social change. I just don’t agree with what they’ve identified as the driving force of that change and its dynamics over time.

    The problem with claiming that mood can propagate across time and space to the extent required for the hypothesis to be valid is that there is no underlying mechanism to explain the propagation. Individuals do indeed have moods, but how does a social body have a mood? It isn’t a real physical entity. Mood can propagate within a confined group for a set period, but how could it conceivably have “staying power” and flow from one generation to the next, which is what would ostensibly be required if the socionomic hypothesis were to be correct?

    This is even more problematic in that the moods are meant to last hundreds and even thousands of years and spread across huge spatial boundaries. Moreover, minute changes in any area tend to accumulate over time. For instance, technical advancements accumulate over generations, benefiting the later ones. How exactly does mood accumulate? I don’t think it does.

    I think many other factors are at play, but the main one is the survival drive of individual human beings. We want to survive, prosper, and thrive, and this causes us to adopt certain strategies to propagate, conquer, exploit, cooperate, etc. This is the real motor of history. The military historian Donald Kagan says that wars usually start because of fear, greed, or hubris. Ian Morris, who wrote the book, Why the West Rules – For Now, that Bill has recommended, says that the dynamics of society has been driven by fear, greed, and laziness. In other words, we want to do more with less in as short a period a time as possible with as little threat to our being as possible while weighing the risks. (Morris adds that we don’t often know what we’re doing, but I would argue he’s exaggerating for rhetorical effect.) When combined with various exogenous factors, such as geography, climate, plate tectonics, etc., we get the observed movements of history.

    Socionomists might object that the so-called herding impulse can explain the propagation. To the extent that humans do indeed herd in some cases, it can explain behaviour over short periods of time, mainly in confined locales and spaces. For instance, if you exit a conference hall, not having heard the announcement about where to go next over the PA, you would feel compelled to go with the flow. However, this would not necessarily be an irrational thing to do, as you would be playing the odds that others know where they are going. This would be even more the case if the crowd suddenly started to surge in one particular direction. You would have to follow the movement otherwise you could be crushed.

    Humanity is not a herding species. It is the main survival strategy of ungulates on open prairie, tundra, and savannah, where the main threat comes from packs of hunting carnivores. For example, wildebeest herd and huddle together for protection against predation and attack by lions. The only relevant example of such behaviour by humans is in battle, when they tend to want to merge together to form a protective shield against the threat.

    Herding is not the irrational behaviour that technical financial analysts present as such, certainly not when confronted with a physical threat to survival. When someone invests in, say, the stock market, they are making a bet that the shares they buy will provide dividends over a long period. They are also betting, to a certain extent, that other investors will find those shares more valuable over a certain period of time so that they bid the price up. In other words, it isn’t a simple mechanism. They have to anticipate the behaviour of thousands of other rational agents, also trying to get the best return from their investments, who are also trying to anticipate everyone else’s behaviour. This is pure strategic behaviour, and therefore rational. This may not appear to be the case at turning points, but even then you can easily explain it as rational in the same way that it is rational for a wildebeest to stay with the herd in the event of a lion attack, or it is rational to follow a crowd in an enclosed space. It doesn’t always turn out well for certain individuals, but on the whole, it saves the herd.

    The problem is that the artificial context of the stock market (to continue with that example), investors are playing a game of chicken with each other. This leads them to wait too long to take action. When prices start collapsing, some investors will want out early, others will continue waiting, until finally, they panic. In other words, the emotion is accessory to the underlying strategic context, and acts as an instinctive signalling mechanism to the investor (or the person in the conference hall) to get the hell out of there.

    With that said, I do agree that at extremes, unsophisticated players get creamed because they don’t know how to invest and what they are really getting themselves into. They are just following everyone else. To that extent, herding is a factor, and they are irrational, within the confines of the particular financial market they have chosen to invest in. Outside of that, however, it is quite rational to want to follow everyone else, because they are imitating what they believe to be a successful thriving strategy. It is their unsophistication that gets them, in other words, their lack of awareness, not their overall irrationality.

    To that extent, knowledge of Elliott Waves, and other technical factors, is critical if you’re going to be a serious financial investor. If not, then it’s probably better to have a savings account. The returns won’t be spectacular, and you won’t get creamed by more sophisticated investors. Besides, casual stock market investors don’t have the “system” and intestinal fortitude to take the ups and downs of real financial markets. They are the ones who are the victims of moods.

    Outside of financial markets, I see little application of Elliott Waves. That doesn’t mean I don’t accept the premise of social change. It also doesn’t mean I don’t accept the idea that things can worse, in fact much worse. It’s just that I don’t accept the basic assumptions of socionomics. If it gets someone to read more history and to try to understand the world at a deeper level, that’s good. But if someone takes it as gospel, then I think there is a problem. But that would apply to any hypothesis about social causation. What’s needed is an open mind, but also open eyes and open ears.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: If humans are not herd-driven, why do we see a constant stream of changes, spreading in a quite herd-like manner, in what is popular: clothing, colors, styles, TV shows, magazines, cars, books, foods, opinions, gadgets, investments, music–and on and on and on. People are wired to do and want what others do and want (and, yes, those who are more aware tend to be less caught up in this, and there are also people who rebel and do the opposite, but their behavior is just a contrary product of the same herd behavior). In times of danger, when people aren’t sure what to do, this tendency is even stronger: people do what everyone else seems to be doing, because in an evolutionary sense this has proven to be beneficial.

    One of the most powerful principles of persuasion is called “social proof”–if others are doing it, believing it, or buying it, maybe I should, too.

    The mechanism for spreading social mood is human interaction, in whatever form it takes–the same thing that spreads memes within a culture.

    The Socionomic people believe that social mood precedes other human behavior due to quite a few studies showing that the events that are often cited as causes for changes in social mood–war, economic problems, political conflicts, epidemics, etc.–happen AFTER the change in mood (as measured by movements in the markets, which they believe is a the most instantaneous measure of those moods). Every study I’ve seen confirms this, even though it is contrary to “common sense”–ie, what most people have been taught to believe.

  139. One of the Sams says :

    Santiago! You. Are. AWESOME!!!

    This is such an interesting discussion. Thanks for starting it. I attended Bill’s online talk ages ago, read up (a little!) but didn’t really know what to do with the info. This discussion is opening up broad vistas.

    Summary:

    Social mood determines people’s behaviour, which in turns determines what happens in the stock market. In a way the stock market is our measuring tool. Bill, Christopher, did I get this right? It’s kinda important for the next part of my arguement.

    Santiago asked to what extent this is happening world wide and to what extent it happens in countries. He also asked what caused this.

    I wonder if Ilya Prigogine might have something to say. He is the guy who demonstrated that certain chemical systems spontaneously set up patterns of order & complexity that can dissipate energy…but only up to a certain point. And it has been suggested that this happens internally with people too because we are systems.

    What if, every population/society (e.g. Romans) is a system…and as time progresses, more & more stress is placed on the system in term of what it’s asked to dissipate (more people/environmental factors/…the list goes on) and eventually it can’t handle the stress anymore and collapses.

    What if social mood is determined by that system. As the system becomes unstable, social mood swings downward & all the downturn effects happens. The same would go for an up-swing.

    I’m from South Africa so I’ll use that as an example:
    A system was established, and during the 1980s became more and more unstable. Social mood was way down. Then comes 1994, new system established and social mood was way, way, way up there. But the new system proved to be too superficial. The infrastructure of the country was designed to support 30% of the population, not 100%. The system starts coming apart, experiencing chaos. Social mood goes down. It’s way down right now. Crime is up, protectionist behaviour left, right & centre. The list goes on.

    Countries will be affected by what’s happening globally to the extent that they are connected to the rest of the world (the closed-ness/open-ness of their system). If I’m right, that is.

    If we could find a closed system that has found internal balance their social mood would be relatively stable by comparison. I’m thinking Tikopia. A small island, that practices permaculture (or something like it), have strict reproductive policies and apparently haven’t been westernised to the same extent as the rest of Oceania. I would love to see what social mood was up to over there since they found their “equilibrium”. Are they still stable? I’m afraid I don’t know.

    There’s my theory. I haven’t done the research yet. But I would love to hear what you guys think. Bill?

    Sorry if someone else already said this. I trawled through the posts and couldn’t find anything. I meant to keep it short!

    Christopher, being female, being rather concerned and aware that what you said about power is right, I’d really like to know more about what you were saying earlier. Recommended reading? Are you saying my days of being single should come to an end (or at least I should reconsider)?

    FROM BILL: I do think that human society IS an open system, and it does behave in the same way as other open systems (as Prigogine’s work predicts). And, I suppose if there was such a thing as a closed human society, it might be more stable in the way you describe. However, births and death, weather, and several other things make it impossible to have such a closed system. The one you mention might be more closed relative to others, but it’s still an open, dynamic system (just LESS dynamic).

  140. Jem says :

    Christopher say’s


    You would have to understand the significance of this position in TIME / HISTORY where we sit now … It is monumental … It sets up for a regression in civilized behavior based on finding ourselves with a lack of everything we are used to in modern day life … It would raise tensions exponentially … It could usher in lawlessness and rudimentary survival tactics … Easily …”

    I feel that you are basing your idea’s on fear & not knowing any better way, but that is just a problem of your education.

    “Let’s sit down here, all of us, on the open prairie, where we can’t see a highway or a fence. Let’s have no blankets to sit on, but feel the ground with our bodies, the Earth, the yielding shrubs. Let’s have the grass for a mattress, experiencing its sharpness and its softness. Let us become like stones, plants, and the trees. Let us be animals, think and feel like animals.”

    I fear Chriss you have been heavily influenced by Freuds visions of reality, it’s understandable Freuds views have been accepted & taken on board by the interlectuals of our time….Does’t mean its correct.

    “Listen to the air. You can hear it, feel it, smell it, taste it. Woniya waken – the holy air – which renews all by its breath. Woniya, woniya waken – spirit, life, breath, renewal – it means all that. Woniya – we sit together, don’t touch, but something is there; we feel it between us, as a presence. A good way to start thinking about nature, talk about it. Rarther talk to it, talk to the rivers, to the lakes, to the winds as to our relatives.”

    The western philosophy is so far removed from our natural nature. It has been for the last 2 thousand years been repressed by the interlectuals of society.

    “You have made it hard for us to experience nature in the good way by being part of it. Even here we are conscious that someone out in those hills there are missile silos and radar stations. White man always pick the few unspoiled, beautiful, awsome spots for the sites of these abominations. You have raped and violated these lands, always saying,” Gimme, gimmie, gimmie,” and never giving anything back. You have taken 200. 000 acres of our Pine Ridge reservation and made them into a bombing range. This land is so beautiful and strange that now some of you want to make it into a national park. The only use you have made of this land since you took it from us was to blow it up. You have not only despoiled the Earth, the rocks, the minerals, all of which you call “dead” but which are very much alive; you have even changed the animals, which are part of us, part of the Great Spirit, changed them in a horriable way, so no one can recognise them. There is power in a buffalo -spiritual, magic power – but there is no power in an Angus, in a Hereford.”

    You seem to forget, or choose to over look, that the system you are so desperatly trying to defend or think is good, is based on corruption & lies & can never survive…long term.

    “There is power in antelope, but not in a goat or in a sheep, which holds still while you butcher it, which will eat your newspaper if you let it. There was great power in a wolf, even in a coyote. You have made him into a freak – a toy poodle, a pekingese, a lap dog. You can’t do much with a cat, which is like an indian (free spirit), unchangeable. So you fix it, alter it, declaw it, even cut its vocal cords so you can experiment on it in a laboratory without being disturbed by its screams”.

    I hear on this blog products of a western society education, you to Bill, it just tells me more that holosync is only part of the journey. I was hopping it was more but alas I need to do more work doh!!!

    I don’t know how much credit you can give to socionomics…..only time will tell. However it is extremly obvious that we can not continue doing buisness with planet Earth the same way with out any re-percussions. I would think and this is where you fall down for me Bill/Chriss is that you both seem to have no empathy with the planet.

    And final word Chriss, (I have to say it), im sorry but its very easy to degrade someone with a smile & interlectualism. If you really respected woman you would not of said what you did. Your views stated that woman were less than. I would direct you to the book “The Chalice & the Blade” by Riane Eisler. She wrote a book back in the 80’s based on the same (hypoyhosis) predictions that you are using, stating that when women started getting to much power,. a social downturn in mood happened as man coulden’t handle it…lots to do with shadow material.

    I don’t disagree with everything you are saying, in fact I feel that times will get harder but that is because of human ignorance towards the planet, & I don’t feel that it is necesarily bad,…we need to change. I just feel the way you & Bill have put this across is some what un-scientific, i.e., no room for anything bar your views. Hope you respect this in the way it is intended.

  141. James Wilkinson says :

    Bill,

    right after you started centerpointe (I still was a teenager) there was this guy (I won’t tell his name) that based on numerology said a number of things about my life that came to pass with amazing precision…he also said: “after democracy chaos” and he mumbled a number of things about 2012, now get me right, this guy was grounded in numbers and no conspiracy theorist. Back in 1990 he was laughing his ass off, cause he knew EXACTLY what was to come…investing in agriculture and energy is the future…MONSANTO stock (the company from hell that will provide aluminum resistant crops when the rest will be dead by the ongoing chemtrailing) are already soaring…and on and on…it’s not that you’re telling anything new on your blog here…I knew about this shit when I was 16…from a guy doing numerology, and sure enough it’s happening just he said it would…the fact that the US dollar is world reserve currency, and that its crash will eat at the global economy is no coincidence, it has been DESIGNED that way! There are no CONSPIRACY THEORIES, there are only CONSPIRACY REALITIES. Anyway, someone you may call woo woo with a pencil and paper and some numbers told me this shit would happen, and sure enough now we’re at the eve of these events… . Do you think that it’s a COINCIDENCE that the FEDERAL RESERVE will turn 99 years old to the day on December 22nd 2012 on that famous date? And again, 2012 is no end of the world, but just the following of an AGENDA. And sure enough by that time you’ll see THE END of the FED, no question about it…and maybe (let’s hope not) the FEMA trains and CAMPS will eventually come to use…by the way: the FEMA trains with shackles have been built in Oregon, I’m sure you know. So the folks that I know in the States that are buying up rice, silver, ammo and guerrilla gear, are surely no fools, the elites have been building their DUMBS like crazy…we’ll see yes?

    Regards James

    FROM BILL: You’re a good example of something I have said repeatedly: people will interpret what happens based on theri developmental level. Yours, apparently, has a lot of non-rational magical thinking in it. Reality can be interpreted from any developmental level. These interpretations, however, tend to become more accurate as you go up the developmental ladder. Food for thought.

    Numerology, huh?

  142. Carlos says :

    To Christopher:

    You already explained your comment about women, and Kory and other women accepted it.

    If you feel that need of continuing apologizing and If you are so affected by women “yelling and calling you names for expresing your opinion” then How are you going to be able to defend them when the shit hits the fan??

    Carlos

  143. Caveman says :

    I came back to check on all of you and be curteous … I was called a wuss and a spineless, idiotic moron … A neanderthal …

    I will return to my cave now … Club in-hand … I’m not talking to myself …

  144. Caveman says :

    Bill, please DO stay in touch …

    Bye Kory … Sorry I pissed you off … I didn’t mean to …

    You’re all my friend, in my heart …

    Christopher-

  145. frank james says :

    Bill,

    I’m sorry to say that Bob Monroe had really a much clearer view of the broder reality framework than you do…you’re smart no doubt, no one’s taking that from you…but again Monroe was much smarter than you in many ways, he knew what life is all about, whereas you have a LIMITED scientific take on things…again, that’s fine, but it’s a limited view!

    Regards Frank

    FROM BILL: You mean because Bob Monroe believed in little green man visiting him from the astral plane?

  146. Vic says :

    We ALL see through a glass darkly. For some, the glass has JUST A FEW lighter spots.

  147. michelle s says :

    Wow- everyone is getting so testy- and I don’t mean testosterone. I know that I can not affect the world with how I act- but I can affect how I feel and react. Isn’t that part of what building awareness is. If you can’t take the heat- stay out of the kitchen. Looking forward to more,

  148. Bill,

    The phenomena you list are all areas that are subject to social trends and imitative behaviour, but that doesn’t mean they are examples of herding behaviour. Moreover, they are quite superficial and related to fashion and entertainment trends. But the main issue is whether changes of mood are the main cause of social change. Most of the evidence that Prechter and his associates aduce for socionomics outside of price data in financial markets are examples of cherry picking.

    For instance, he’s got graphs showing movie titles at various points on a Dow price chart. That doesn’t convince me in the least. In order to make a convincing case, they would have to go through the entire database of movies that have been released for a certain time period, classify them according to type, include measures of popularity, and assess them subjectively as to whether they represent the upbeat mood or the downbeat mood. Then there would have to be a statistically significant correlation with the stock market. Sticking pictures of Mary Poppins on a stock market graph is pretty superficial, if you ask me.

    The graphs relating stock market prices to war are also problematic. He skips over a number of wars in US history, simply because they don’t correspond to his hypothesis. Where are the Mexican War, the Indian Wars, the French and Indian War (started in the Thirteen Colonies), not to mention the Spanish-American War and the War of Spanish Succession (1740s), the Korean War? In order to convince me of his hypothesis about war and social mood (as reflected in the stock market), he would have to chart warfare through a more quantitative method than simply putting the name of certain wars on a chart. Perhaps total combat deaths per year would be a good way to start, followed by a statistical analysis to see if there is any correlation with the stock market, or another financial proxy of social mood.

    The hypothesis of mood caused warfare is also easily refuted by history. There are reasons why people go to war. For instance, why did war start in Europe and not in America in 1914? Why did Canada, which was closely tied to the US economy and society even at that time, enter the war right away in 1914? Niall Ferguson has also shown that the financial markets in Europe (as demonstrated in bond prices) showed no inkling of the disaster that was about to befall Europe. Right up to a few days before the war started, bond prices stayed firm. It was only in the last few days that they collapsed when the markets and investors finally cottoned on to what was by then inevitable. In other words, it was a total surprise, and Prechter’s notion of a lag between the markets and war is totally invalidated. Moreover, when the US did finally enter the war, it was after being provoked by Germany sinking American ships, on several occasions. Americans were in a war mood, but they were attacked (sinking neutral shipping is an act of war – of course, the US was supplying the British and French). The same thing happened in 1941. The US was attacked; that’s what led to the entry into the war.

    You also talk about epidemics. The deadliest epidemic in modern history is the Spanish Flu pandemic, that broke out in 1918 and lasted until about 1920-1. What stock market fluctuation explains that? I don’t think there is. Instead, it can be easily explained as a consequence of the First World War. People were weaker and poorer, there was unprecedented mixing of peoples, and public health and hygiene was not what it is today.

    In addition, sometimes he uses gold, sometimes a version of a constant dollar Dow, sometimes nominal Dow to show these purported relationships. It’s sloppy and wouldn’t pass muster, I’m sure, in a real scholarly publication. I have read a paper that Prechter and one of his associates have published in a peer reviewed scholarly publication (I think it was the Journal of Behavioral Finance). But it wasn’t about socionomics; it was about how mood drives pricing in financial markets through an endogenous mechanism. That may be a valid argument to make, but it is a lot less than his claims for socionomics. If you know of others, then I would be glad to read them.

    As far as I know, all of his socionomic papers and studies are self-published. I know of no third party support for this, other John Casti, who is a researcher at the Santa Fe Institute, I believe.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: I wrote a long response to this, then acidentally closed the window and lost it. The jist was as follows:

    My main purpose in all of this was to help people zoom out to a more big picture view of what is happening in the world. It was not to debate whatever details Prechter and company may or may not have right or wrong. This is what the peer review process is for, and it works pretty well, though the wheels turn slowly.

    Two prominent scientific journals, as I noted in one of my other answers to a post, have reviewed Casti’s book, Mood Matters. Both were favorable. This would have been unlikely were this view patently false, especially since it is a view that undermines a lot of what the social science mainstream believes (in saying that social mood drives events, rather than the other way around).

    Though the argument about all of these things is interesting and engaging (and I have been following it for nearly 20 years), my purpose was to make the broad (and, I think, rather obvious) point that social mood is becomig increasingly negative. And, it has quite obviously moved back and forth from positive to negative throughout history. It certainly seems to me to move in a regular way, and of all the cycle theories I have looked at over several decades, Elliott Wave theory seems to describe those movements better than any of the others.

    If one can see that there is movement toward a more negative social mood, and that it is neither random, nor is it caused by some sinister plot, it becomes easier to not become swept up in it, to make preparations, and to see what is happening as something that humanity goes through over and over (as most people recognize the business cycle).

    Also, this dovetails with what I have been trying to get across in the posts I’ve made over the last year or so, that there are certain things about the human condition from which there is no escape. A certain amount of suffering is built into the human condition–in fact, quite a lot of it. Learning to acknowledge and accept this is the mark of a spiritually mature person. Instead, because we have just completed the period of greatest positive social mood in recorded history, it has been common to believe that utopia is just around the corner, that all problems will be solved, etc.

    Unless I miss my guess, those who have had it easy during the last 50 years are about to find out what the rest of the human in history, and many of the people living today outside the first world already know: that being a human being is quite challenging, and there is no utopia. I don’t say this as a way to be negative or alarmist, but because I have personally discovered that coming to terms with these truths is quite freeing, and denying them just creates addition suffering.

    So while debating the details of all of this is quite interesting to me (though with dozens of long posts each day, I don’t have the time to debate every point, as I do this in my spare time, for free) and I have had some of the same skeptical thoughts you express, Richard, much of this veers away from my original point.

  149. Kory says :

    Karl Marx already predicted, the rise and fall of the market, but very few people had listened.

    Karl Marx (1818-1883) is best known not as a philosopher but as a revolutionary communist, whose works inspired the foundation of many communist regimes in the twentieth century
    was a German philosopher, political economist, historian, sociologist, humanist, political theorist, and revolutionary credited as the founder of communism.
    Trained as a philosopher, Marx turned away from philosophy in his mid-twenties, towards economics and politics
    Marx’s theory of history – is centered on the idea that forms of society rise and falls as they further and then impede the development of human productive power
    The analysis of history and economics come together in Marx’s prediction of the inevitable economic breakdown of capitalism, to be replaced by communism
    Marx refused to speculate in detail about the nature of communism, arguing that it would arise through historical processes, and was not the realization of a pre-determined moral ideal.
    He was the first to make people understand that the working people of the country were the one who had the power.
    He believed the socialism would replace capitalism.
    He believed that in the end there would be a classless society and the working class will rise.

    Read more: http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_did_Karl_Marx's_beliefs_influence_the_world#ixzz1FsCsLuGe

    FROM BILL: Almost nothing Marz predicted has happened. No industrial societies have become socialist, which is what his theory demands. Instead, societies that had not yet become industrialized have suffered (and I do mean suffered) socialist takeovers. And, the labor theory of value, which is the cornerstone of his economic theory, is such obvious crap that no thinking person (other than those who have a socialist agenda for other reasons) give it an ounce of crediblility. The amount of work that goes into a product does not determine its value. The value of any item is determined by what a willing buyer actually pays for it. I made a birdhouse once. I put a lot of work into it. It was a piece of crap when I finished. Not only would no person have paid anything for it, birds wouldn’t even live in it for free.

    And, by the way, I have read the entire Das Capital, all three volumes. Have you? After you read it, read Human Action, by Ludwig von Mises.

  150. Kory says :

    From Caveman: Bye Kory … Sorry I pissed you off … I didn’t mean to …

    I’m not threatening to take my toys and go home…………

    Alive and kicking

  151. One of the Sams says :

    Dear Bill,

    Yes, indeed. There is no such thing as a 100% closed system. After posting last night. I did more reading about Tikopia. They are self-sustaining and are consciously choosing to keep the social structures they’ve developed (smart choice if the system is working as well as I’m theorising it is). However, a cyclone nearly destroyed their only source of freshwater in 2002 and if outside help hadn’t intervened, they would have started losing crops etc leading to loss of stability. I wish I knew what social mood was doing at that time.

    My hypothesis is this:
    Social mood is determined by the state of the open system, whether it’s still easily dissipating input or close to collapsing (reaching threshold to use your phrase). What are your thoughts on this?

    But how does the average person on the street know that the system they find themselves in is reaching the point where it will collapse & re-organise? My guess would be that in a stable open system needs are easily met and the individuals in the system experience little stress (pressure to survive). However, the closer a system gets to the chaos point (threshold) , the individuals in the system find it harder to have needs met and hence more stress leading to down turn in mood…

    Getting ahead of myself here: When an individual reaches his/her threshold the biggest problems are caused because he or she try to cling to what was. Could the biggest problems in a society be caused because we try to preserve the old system?
    Then the question is, how to facilitate the change from one system to the next on a large scale? (Community, town, city, country, economically etc).

    Is it even possible?

  152. arturo says :

    Bill,
    just a couple of sincere comments and questions…

    …After listening to “going to hell…” 1 and 2, I had lots of ideas to share, comment and give my opinion about, but after not sleeping last night reading all comments and your responses (wow! coudn’t stop till I was through at 5:32 AM!!!!)… Well, I guess all I can say now is:

    1st, thank you for bringing such an important subject to the light, after all, we all (human race) are involved, so I think it´s important to at least, be curious about what really is going on (beyond the good, the evil and the fantasy) and what consecuences could result, as well as our possible options out of that. In order to do it, it certainly helps to have as much current, accurate, and unbiased information (and it sources) as possible, Which in Mexico (where I am from and live is not easy to get) so again, Thank you for taking the time to share it, even though obviously the news companies are not the same, (the shit is)… and thank God there is internet, if wisely used, a powerful tool that does make the world small…
    Regarding the fierce attacks from many, maybe people who see this as pesimistic and TRY to protect themselves behind an optimistic mask just evidence how much negativity and fear they must have inside, that they try to repress it or look away… but as you say: often the ones who would benefit the most from Holosync are the ones that less see it… (and no, nobody is paying me for saying that… just comes from a happy Holo user)

    2nd: at the end of the day, and after taking caution measures, as far as I’m concerned, all there is is relaxing and enjoying that strawberry… yummy!!

    3rd: speaking of caution… a couple of REALLY sillly questions, if I may (sorry but I have to ask):
    a) I know that you don’t know for sure but, how long do you think we should consider the food/water storage to last for?
    b) Do you really believe in that “new world order true higher power” with a controling agenda above the presidents etc…? if so, could you comment about it?

    P.S. You really must have a lot of patience, guts and compassion to initiate a talk about all this knowing the avalanche of misunderstandings it’ll create, in your shoes, I probably woudn’t have… :)
    Anyway I just wanted to let you know that in spite of all the controversy there are many of us (I´m sure I’m not alone) that appreciate what you do. This, of course, is not to “cheer you and make you feel good” rather I’m just expressing my sincere appreciation.
    Blessings to all,
    Arturo

    FROM BILL: Well, it does cheer me up.

    I don’t know if there is some controlling group “above the presidents”. Certainly powerful corporate and banking interests are highly involved in at least trying to manipulate who has the reins of power. Do they all meet in a smoke-filled room in a coordinated way. Probably not. Certainly there are people who want more, and more centralized, power, and who want “world governance.” The progressive view is that people are mostly like Homer Simpson and someone needs to decide for them what they can and can’t do. This, from my reading of history, always ends in tears.

    One of the problems of a huge and centralized government (which the US constitution was supposed to guard against, but unfortunately has been undermined) is that once power is centralized “special interest groups” have someone to cozy up to and collaborate with. Without that power, the bankers and multi-national corporations are left to sell their products just like everyone else. History, though, is one centralized power structure after another, and I doubt that that will ever change (sorry, communists and anarchists).

    I have no idea how much food and water storage is enough. I don’t know how bad things will get (and neither does anyone else), or even if you would ever really need stored food and water. It just makes sense to have some, IMO. If you never need it, there’s no real harm done. If you do need it it will at least make things easier, and it might save your life.

  153. James Wilkinson says :

    FROM BILL: You’re a good example of something I have said repeatedly: people will interpret what happens based on theri developmental level. Yours, apparently, has a lot of non-rational magical thinking in it. Reality can be interpreted from any developmental level. These interpretations, however, tend to become more accurate as you go up the developmental ladder. Food for thought.

    Numerology, huh?

    Bill,

    and what are Elliott waves? Rational thinking? The fact that you say huh on numerology just proves your ignorance, obviously you know nothing on this subject and as a result you drop a huh! I know people that based on your birth date and time will strip you from your underwear, telling you in DETAIL about your past present and future (and I’m not even saying tht the future is a fixed thing, but there are some basic personality traits that don’t change).

    All I’m saying is that this guy told me in 1990 what you now present as news…nothing new under the Christmas tree Bill, sorry! But I knew 20 years ago that it would come to this! After democracy chaos, and it WILL happen no question about it.

    So don’t give me this developmental ladder and interpretation talk, cause obviously someone has been preparing for what’s to come very carefully…the tanks have already been shipped to DC…it’s not like you’re all knowing up your developmental ladder and we’re all magical thinkers!

    I’m not saying that you’re dummy, not at all, no question about it: you’re a very smart fellow, but you’ve also got only a partial picture, and I’m not sure that it’s more comprehensive than mine, even if you’d like to think so!

    Regards James

    FROM BILL: Whatever strategy you have for navigating your way through life will work as long as i works. If numerology works for you, by all means use it. If you can’t see the difference between Elliott wave theory and numerology, though, you have more serious problems than I thought.

  154. Nikola Kress says :

    Dear caveman Christopher….

    I read your contributions with interest and growing anticipation… I couldn’t find any comments that called you a wuss and spineless… I think I remember seeing the idiotic moron in some comment… I’m sorry that it touched you.
    I also read a lot of encouraging comments for you…
    I know how it feels if you pour out your little heart for the good of all and all the best intentions and then get ridiculed for it, I took refuge into my shell for the same crime dozens of times.

    Please don’t go.
    There are a lot of readers who value your contributions… Me for one.

    And now to something completely different:

    All these comments about how bad it’ll get made me wonder how I’m gonna prepare for it… I thought of buying some knives and a gun, picking up on my karate classes (from 25 years ago..) and teach my old dog, who has her expiry date written all over her body, how to bite…
    I came to the conclusion, that that’s not at all my style. I rather talk than fight.
    So I’m kinda willing to exchange my valued single status to a sweet, romantic twosomeness… anyone interested? (tongue in cheek)
    I’m 40, curvy, long blond hair, love to give hugs, and am currently meditating on purification level 4… (tongue poking hole through cheek)

    Thank you Bill for swiping of my rose-coloured glasses, was about time!

    FROM BILL: I told Christopher not to wuss out (in a kidding way) when he said he was leaving.

  155. Frank James says :

    FROM BILL: You mean because Bob Monroe believed in little green man visiting him from the astral plane?

    Bill,

    if you’ve paid attention, Bob didn’t talk only weird stuff, but how it is, but of course you don’t understand these things cause you’re locked into your realist mindset…and no, please don’t tell me that I am a magical thinker or that I’m one down on the developmental ladder…maybe you’re very fit for the real world, but you have little or no understanding of a bigger picture of what goes past physical reality…but of course that’s not real is it?

    Why am I even writing here? I think your blog is going off the far end, but of course, it’s your blog and you can post the shit you’d like to post.

    And I’m not even saying for a minute that thing won’t be falling apart…it’s been done by design with the unconscious participation of all…and it is an agenda…no question about that…but of course that again puts me one down on the developmental ladder and makes me a magical thinker I guess…ha ha…I wanna laugh my ass off.

    Regards Frank

    FROM BILL: Yikes! I’ve got to get rid of this realistic mindset. Help! Someone save me! Frank, you are quite entertaining.

  156. James Wilkinson says :

    FROM BILL: Already have. That this is even up on the web is another indication of the condition of social mod. This is the sort of information that is disseminated in times of declining social mood.

    Bill,

    I was sure you already have…but even so, Stansberry isn’t telling me anything I didn’t already know 20 years ago!!!

    Regards James

    FROM BILL: But who else is as sharp as you? And most people don’t have the power of numerology in their holster. You da man!

  157. carmen says :

    please people, after reading all that interesting material Bill and others have recommend -which I am grateful for-, go to youtube and search “reasons to believe 2011” by coca-cola

    sorry Bill, I could not avoid this tentation….I met it at the very border of my clinical depression

    thanks coca-cola, I cannot believe it is me who has to tell you Americans about this amazing advertisement…., but I know, I know, you are so busy looking at the dark side….

    and again, thanks to holosync and its creators, it is a very helpful device to be aware and handle the worse and to fill the better everyday with fresh energy

    with love, from Galicia, Spain,SW Europe!!!

  158. Kory says :

    You’d have to shift your thinking …

    When we do get there, HIS perception of HIS- so-called POWER, will have changed significantly … Mark my words on that … He would learn that HIS power has been afforded TO HIM, over time, and not been attained BY HIM with force of HIS own … Not physical force … It is has been granted to HIM under the temporary guise or semblance of the civility and agreeance of WOMEN …

    AAAHHHH….. now it makes sense to me! :)

    I was wrong Bill….I can EDIT!

  159. Paul Cowan says :

    There are things that can be done. People do not have to acquiese with the authorities who are trying to repossess their homes.

    People need to get together like they are in wisconsin and fight this in a non violent way.

    The bankers got us all into this mess and then they were bailed out for their greed.

    If we stop playing the game, what can they do?

    FROM BILL: Actually, the US government mandated the rules for giving out mortgages to people who couldn’t afford them. The mortgage companies made a lot of money on fees, so they were happy to oblige. The banks sell the mortgages soon after they were made, so they were okay with it, too. Those who bought the mortgage bundles, however (pension funds, etc) got the short end of the stick. This started, though, by the government making it a law that mortgages had to be given to these people.

  160. David says :

    Bill,

    I guess I owe you an apology! I’ve been bitching about Elliott Waves all along, but ultimately it really know shit about the subject, and it even doesn’t matter where the information’s coming from. Bottom line is that I would agree with you that we’ll have some very grim times ahead, collectively as a planet that is.

    Regards, David

  161. Kory says :

    From Bill: And, by the way, I have read the entire Das Capital, all three volumes. Have you? After you read it, read Human Action, by Ludwig von Mises.

    No I haven’t. I might add, probably won’t. I do not enter the arguments of socionomics, Prechter, wave theory, social mood etc. solely because I am not qualified. However, I do know something about women. :)
    I was merely trying to point out that Marx, being who he was at that time……’ few had listened ‘

    (That’s not to stay I am not learning something here)

    FROM BILL: Marx certainly did get that conditions contain the seeds of their own breakdown and change. He was, however, a product of his times, the early days of the industrial revolution, where conditions for those who worked in factories (which were a relatively new thing) were horrid. Not quite as horrid as the conditions the workers came from, however, in most cases, but still quite bad–12 hour days, 7 days a week, low pay, etc (in other words, similar to the terrible conditions in the agricultural work these workers came from). This led to what became the union movement, and the more radical wing of this movement advocated the workers completely taking over. This was partly based on the labor theory of value, which is pure bunk, and also a complete failure to get what an entrepreneur contributes to the creation of products (and, therefore, wealth).

    In addition to the above, Marx was completely wrong about his idea of how capitalism would turn into socialism (please, all you ardent socialists out there–I don’t intend to get into a debate about this–I used to BE a Marxist, am VERY familiar with the entire argument, and I’ve never had a discussion with a defender of this point of view who was even slightly interested in the facts or any kind of rational discussion–so SAVE it, please). Socialism just plain doesn’t work, and every experiment with it, in addition to many other serious deficiencies, has turned into totalitarianism and resulted in MANY deaths. Marx himself was not advocating totalitarianism–he was actually quite idealistic (another utopian, in fact). As Margaret Thatcher once said, “The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other peoples’ money.”

  162. Nikola Kress says :

    Hey Bill!

    Of course I read your comment on Christopher not to wuss out… and I think there is a difference in calling someone a wuss and asking someone to not wuss out, just as there is a difference in calling someone spineless and asking someone to grow a bit more spine. At least that’s my perception.
    Maybe it’s just a technicality, but I feel there are a lot of very tinted interpretations and putting words in mouths in some of the comments. And it looks like people prefer to presume rather than ask “what did you mean by that?”
    So for my part, I try to be as exact as possible with your highly valued language (yeah, I’m not a native speaker, absolutely love the liberty of the English language… though it seems that it’s not yet enough liberty for some, and that’s how some of these wild interpretations come into existence…)

    I get side tracked…

    I’d really like to listen to a debate between you and Ken Wilber about this whole topic… One where you leave out all the niceties with which you usually reinsure each other and your audience of how great you both are (which you admittedly are, but who needs to know that over and over again… Oops there we go again!)

    FROM BILL: I was teasing Christopher. He has obviously NOT wussed out on this blog. He has added some quite valuable expertise.

  163. Nikola Kress says :

    I wasn’t finished! (clumsy fingers on the iPhone)…

    Ok: a debate in which you leave out all these polite niceties and get red hot ears from a heated, passionate discussion of what we can actually do to help as many people as possible to get through that very tough time…
    Wishful thinking hm?

    Aw well… Worth a try.

  164. John Greenhalgh says :

    Bill,
    Normally, I find what you say valuable. In this case, certainly some of the matters you’ve drawn attention to, especially those other parts of the world, deserve to be recognised more widely. I’m not sure though that some of your conclusions are valid.

    To begin, it seems important to recognise that the human need to find (or make) meaning in the world is one of our deepest drives. When existing ideas seem to fail, we look for new ones. We’re desperate for meaning – to understand.

    Sorry, but reading your list of examples of what Socionomics ‘predicted’ reminded me of Nostradamus’s ‘predictions’ – and of astrology’s predictions.

    Human beings are subject to many cognitive and emotional biases, but the most relevant one here seems to me to be Confirmation Bias – we notice (afterwards) the events that seem to confirm our current beliefs. We can find ‘evidence’ to support almost anything we want it to support. But whether that evidence would be accepted by the experts in that particular field is another matter entirely. Of course, even the ‘experts’ can have blind spots.

    It seems to me that your list of Socionomics ‘predictions’ is far too imprecise to be valuable. It’s also very US-centric.

    I’m from Australia, and the ‘social mood’ here seems to be quite different, although there does seem to be greater caution now – less euphoria- than there was before the Global Financial Crisis. I wonder what the ‘social mood’ (if there is such a thing) would be in China or India, the two most populous nations. (Yes, I know you’ve indirectly referred to some aspects of it, mainly in the references to less-developed countries.) It seems to me that ‘Social Mood’ (if it can be quantified) encompasses far more than survival and financial wellbeing.

    Rather than suggesting that ‘social mood’ precedes human behaviour, might it not go hand in hand with it?

    To suggest that the stock market is an indicator or predictor of the outcomes of social mood is drawing a pretty long bow, given that the shareholdings of other financial institutions such as pension funds dominate the shareholdings of individuals. These institutions are not people with ‘moods’ (yes, they’re managed by people), nor do the the vast majority operate based on sentiment.

    Perhaps the biggest source of what some people see as the problems of the world results from human inability (and unwillingness) to appreciate the effects of our collective and individual actions.

    Finally, if Elliott Wave theory has any relevance, the time when one decides a wave begins must influence what it ‘predicts’. If you choose a period of a century, and select your events (or peaks) based on that, you’ll get a different outcome from the outcome (or predictions) that would be made if you selected (say) a decade or two.

    John

    FROM BILL: I can see how someone who is surmising the possible flaws in wave theory without knowing much about it, or without actually looking at the evidence, could see it this way. Perhaps a look at the evidence, from the experts, would give you a different viewpoint.

  165. Dieter says :

    Dear Bill,

    I read your blog entries (part I and II) with great interest. First of all I am delighted for your courage to write about such a topic in such a passionate form. Your touch of “lack of diplomacy” is appreciated a lot as I prefer a blunt statement based on sound thinking ten times over a well behaved comment which proves to be simply hot air in the end with the intention to please all and say nothing.

    Just as short intro, I own a Masters Degree in economics and worked over 20 years in the investment banking industry as analyst, trader, financial engineer and advisor. I started to study Elliot Wave Theory like 30 years ago and researched how to apply this approach and many others to high speed futures trading and other trading systems. I have a very sound background in mathematics and statistics in particular, as I have a knack for quantitative models. So may be I can not compare myself to you, but I was professionally recognized as an expert in this field – including Elliott Wave Theory. However as a professional trader and Investment-banker, being employed by major international (Top 20) banks I learned to focus on what works and how to manage financial risks, which are basically all crated by uncertainty. If we had certainty there were no risks, that is a key point to see. I think this perspective is a bit undervalued in your opinion.

    There are some related and very relevant key principles in mathematical statistics I would like to address: 1. one can not make strong conclusions on weak data, 2. Beware of data fitting based on hindsight and 3. do not confuse correlation and causality.

    Well the obvious beauty of a lot of the appealing “fit” of the Elliott Wave principle are based on hindsight. i.e. you can take a purely random time series of data and find typical Elliott Wave patterns in them, even when employing computer software. i.e. the Elliott Wave Theory can not distinguish between a purely random time series and empirical data. i.e. here a causality (a pattern which can be predicted) is detected in uncorrelated, random data. That is a major flaw of this approach. A really famous Elliott Wave page and newsletter service, I guess you mentioned some, made in the past (the 80ies and 90ies some quite pronounced predictions about the stock markets which did not fit at all and where later on (with hindsight!) “adapted”…that is probably legitimate in marketing, in statistics it is called “data fitting”.
    Strictly speaking the Elliott Wave theory is not a mathematical model as the “waves” are only loosely defined (not rigorous enough for mathematics) and are created visually (connecting the dots) and then extrapolated into the future. i.e. it is more of an artistic approach than a true quantitative model, despite the fact that we have computer based EW models.
    By the way the minimum requirement of statistical data in time series analysis is a sample size of 50, if you talk about the long cycles you are referring to, I doubt that all the events you were referring to, make that mark.

    On a side note to freshen up this rather formal critique on the “model” you use, I want to point out that if EW Theory would be such a great predicting tool for such complex events than some of the top class and famous EW specialists ought to weight their money from investing in the financial markets while a guy like Warren Buffet would still be able to count his fortune by hand. The fact is that the truth is the opposite, it is Warren who ordered the scales many years ago while the EW specialists live on selling seminars and newsletters.

    As I said after all my approach is practical first and formal later.

    I hope I do not put any word in your mouth but I recall that you referred to the EW model based interpretations as “facts” as well when you were referring to future events. The fact is that neither models nor predictions are facts – they are interpretations of facts – I am surprised by your view here. If I recall correctly it is you who teaches about NOT mixing up the map with the territory..no? Frankly speaking and with all due respect I think that it is what you do, but I might misread you here? Applying a model to the real world is never objective, it is totally subjective as the model has been subjectively chosen. What is wrong with subjectivity I ask – nothing in my opinion, every decision is subjective – but I do not agree with calling it objective and factual. Based on experience with the human being and the dynamics of greed fear and ego, I tend to agree on a common sense basis with lots of the scenarios you depict. Prudent investors apply risk management and those scenarios provide a ground for evaluating strategies. However as said that is common sense and a brief look in our (as a species) resistance to learn form our history and the tendency to repeat our common errors it is kind of a “safe bet” to expect more of the same. But this matter should be open to discussion and that is what I thought Santiago is trying and you tell him that his view are less valid as he does not share your model (your map) – so what I ask? A model is not information it is just a map. For my taste you are kind of intimidating Santiago and others to argue with you based on your model and your”Information”, but doing that does not leave a lot of room for argument or exchange. One truth, one model eliminates the room for fruitful disagreement. Diversity is exactly the beauty of having more than one map and compare maps or models and (non model based) views based on common sense and experience. In the end we always can learn from each other and agree to disagree.

    I could offer another very simple map for making predictions based on a very, very simple but surprising “adaptive model”.
    This model beats most supercomputers to date in predicting tomorrows weather. Basically it says: tomorrows weather will be like today. Easy to calculate and quit accurate. Well, applied to history, we could say this century like the past century and you know what it explains is a simple fact, that in human history our species did not change much, despite technical, social, religious and industrial (r)evolutions and so called civilization. The stone age club has been replaced by a space age club but the general problems we create due to our anatomy of destructiveness (“The Anatomy of Human Destructiveness”, Erich Fromm). Well this model coincides as well with common sense and does not require pseudo complexity and ages of study with lack of superior results (no pun intended).

    What is my conclusion based on mathematical reason: for my taste and based on my experience and know how, you put way to much leverage on a relatively weak model and seemingly mix up the map with the territory. Having said that I want to express in general, that I agree with you on the presence of “waves”, i.e., life, earth and species do offer cyclical patterns of development (however more complex, non-linear, dynamic and non -deterministic “chaotic” and therefore beyond the scope of the EWT)

    BTW the discussion if you are positive or negative is beyond the point as it totally depends on subjective perspective. You offered a view and an educated opinion and that deserves respect and an exchange of opinions rather than labelling in my opinion.

    What even surprises me more however is your conclusion. For me predictions serve as a means to act and not just to have that depressing view (if the predictions are unfavourable). I think there are ways to do something in that crisis, in particular with the money issue which is so dominant in the economic realm which in turn dominates most of the crisis scenarios. Do something? Why? Well easy, the reason why most of the predictions fail is that they are too linear and do not anticipate creative change and adaptation (that is why we still have oil reserves despite the predictions of the Club of Rome – for example). So, that is why I think your scenarios can serve us to glance at a possible future if we continue as is on “autopilot”, however if we take your views as a means for inspiration to create new ways to deal with what we have at hand we will crush the predictions. This takes guts as we might need to tackle the modern age ”holy cows” of our system such as the current “money system”.

    Two years ago I sat down to think what to do with a crisis of the financial and monetary systems and I found some inspiring may be even revolutionary concepts which I rate promising and inspiring. So when the time is right I see some new options. Rather than taking your views or any other prediction as a certainty I just know that they are not certain if we get going, if creative and entrepreneurial minds merge and do not leave the future in the hands of the “autopilots”. However if we do not take creative actions your scenarios (based on EW or not) are very likely indeed. My totally “non-new-age magic” point of view I state: if we use our highest faculties and courage to really create “out of the box”, they are just one option in many. So the trap here really is, accepting those scenarios as inevitable and letting the “autopilots” reign hands down. So this is my basic disagreement with your opinions. Again offering to agree to disagree and I am looking forward to the next part of your blog and more inspirations to come.

    I close thanking you for the inspired blog and wish you well.

    Cheers, Dieter

    FROM BILL: Robert Prechter has indeed made several predictions that did not pan out. My posts were not, however, about him and his predictive abilities. They were about the movements of social mood from postive to negative and back again, in an identifiable pattern. The more short term these patterns become, the more difficult it is to make accurate predictions. I have found that the Elliott Wave people have been pretty accurate about their predictions, but not so good on timing.

    As I have said, my goal here was not to defend Prechter, or his predictions, or get into a debate about the degree of accuracy of wave theory. My goal was to alert people to the fact that social mood is turning negative, and what the consequences, based on such times in the past, are likely to be. Once you notice a pattern, you are less likely to be unconsciously caught up in it. That is my wish for those who read this blog.

    Though I like a good dispute, and many of the arguments brought up here (including those you bring up) are of personal interest to me, as I have been thinking about these things and evaluating the ongoing stream of evidence for decades. However, I just don’t have the time to debate all these things, especially with the number (and length) of the posts.

    Obviously this discussion has struck a huge nerve, since these two posts have been some of the most commented upon of everything I’ve written. And, many of the arguments and criticisms of what I have written have been incredibly uninformed, and written by people who chose to comment without doing any research or investigation beforehand. Others were worse: irrational, magical thinking, reactive, based on anger-driven beliefs, etc.

    At any rate, though I find the debate interesting, much of it is about the trees when I am trying to get people to see the forest. Comments about the individual trees tend to miss the point, unless one could refute the main thrust of what I am saying, which is that social mood is turning negative, it has before, and similar things happen in such times. Therefore, 1) be prepared, and 2) step back and watch from a distance, rather than getting unconsciously sucked in. When debating how many Elliott waves can dance on the head of a pin, it’s possible to miss the oncoming train, if I can horribly mix metaphors.

  166. Carlos says :

    Bill,

    Did you seriously read the whole Capital. Man , now We know the root of all of your problems :-) I had to take that shit in highschool and I almost ended up in a sanatorioum.

    Carlos

    FROM BILL: At the time I was an enthusiastic Marxist. (I never said that it was fascinating reading, though.)

  167. Nikola Kress says :

    Yep Bill…. I got that it was meant jokingly. Thanks for pointing it out though, so everybody else can get that too.
    Christopher’s reaction though was an indication for me that he couldn’t get it, cause there was already the sting of the “idiotic moron” in him, and his statements became increasingly apologetic and defensive… Or maybe he was just teasing back? Or looking for sympathy?
    Don’t know. Only know that I was quite often in similar situations, because lovingly wanted to point out something and got slaughtered in the process, and it’s partly to do with this media, that is so comfortably anonymous that some think they can call someone else an “idiotic moron”, which they would never do face to face… well, hopefully.
    I also quite often meant something jokingly and ended up with foot in mouth instead of tongue in cheek.

    Whatever…
    Let’s let the MAN (or caveman) talk for himself, if he still has any desire to do so.

    That’s another sidetrack, isn’t it?
    hmmm… you can edit that out anytime.

  168. Nikola Kress says :

    @ John Greenhalgh:
    You might be interested to know that Australia has one of the highest suicide rates in the world… It eludes me why, cause it seems such a perfect little bubble, with good food and good surfs and heaps of sun… and yet.

  169. Nikola Kress says :

    @ Paula:
    Thanks for the tip with squirting cream directly in your mouth… firstly, it DID help, secondly it made me laugh… a rarity in that somber collection of comments.

  170. Caveman says :

    Hi Bill … I’ve not gone far away … I’ve read the updates … There are a few replies I want to make to certain individuals and I will … There are no hard feeling on my part … I still respect the words of all of you … Always will … There was frustration, ok … Head in hands … Because I know how horribly I was misinterpreted on the WOMAN issue … We’ll get past it … I have some words for Kory to further and possibly finish that discussion …

    There have been some very interesting posts … I’ve been side-tracked as of late and been off looking into subject matter like CHAOS THEORY, BLACK SWAN THEORY, COGNATIVE BIASES, BUTTERFLY EFFECT, SCHEMA THEORY, COGNATIVE DISSONANCE, HALO EFFECT, AVAILABILITY CASCADE, ILLUSORY CORRELATION, BEHAVIORAL/INFORMATION CUSP and more … Trying to perhaps add to my understanding of Elliott Wave Theory and identify what other factors and/or drivers are involved with it from a behavioral aspect … i.e. some areas that are discernable and identifiable in psychology and accepted practices that provide evidence of WHY people do things like they do …

    There’s something big happening in our world … We all sense the change … Some of us feel and see the outcome very differently … So, we’re engaging and sharing our insights, experience and knowledge … Hopefully learning, understanding and growing as well as recognizing that we are all unique individuals that can help each other …

    I’ll be back …

  171. Caveman says :

    Carlos:

    My first words are to you, because yours, actually made my blood move through my body at an increased rate as I read it … It felt like a finger in my chest … I didn’t like it much … I’ll let that emotion pass on by … Because I beleive I can tell you mean something else …

    I wanted to walk away because of frustration … Wanting to walk away because I recognoized that there were certain biases that I would not break through … Denial … NORMALCY BIAS, at its best … Not a clear vision that went below the surface of what I was saying and explored it more deeply from a true historical standpoint … REALITY … RAW AND REAL … And that I MYSELF did not want it, wish it, believe in it, promote it or such … But that I know there are many out there that do and will …

    My analysis and study of the situation was based in facts that have described the truth of mankind, his behaviors, his rule of this planet from a physical standpoint for existence until recent history … Until civility and lawful society began to emerge … If anyone wants to refute the evidence that I am building my case on, i.e. HISTORY OF MAN and his physical dominance, one that still exists today, I don’t want to argue or explain that much to a person in that deep of denial … It’s just a fact … That which is coming for them, will explain it FOR me …

    As an Elliott Wave Analyst, trained to think in ways that are unothodox, I palinly see that a woman with an attitude that is very powerful and MAKES IT KNOWN SO BOLDLY, will be a target for agression and shutdown, by men that will dominate her in the severely changed mood of that time … That is, if this thing goes where I think it might … Perfect exmaple is the Ivory Caost as Paula mentioned … Women THOUGHT they still the power to be heard and understood … IT WENT AWAY … They are being killed for showing any sign of oppostion or backtalk … This is not ME being illusionary … MEN can be and will be brutal when things get desperate … Way more so than I see anyone on this blog admitting to or acknowleding … When you take away the basics of our normal life as we know it, it will be a shock so stunning that it will SNAP people into another dimension of BEHAVIOR … Becasue we are more spoiled now, than ever in history … Men, will want to rule by physical dominance and will not be nice … Kory will only know then … I’ll be scared, you will too … But we will not be the targets by brutal men that women will be for various reasons … That is what I am trying to make clear … It has NOTHING to do with ME saying or believing that women are inferior … But the truth is, they are more VULNERABLE to such a change in mood …

    Am I the only one that can project to what level? … Look around you … Around the world … That which you see, is coming to the good old USA before this one is over … And it’ll worse here, becasue we all have guns …

    Carlos, peace to you …

  172. Caveman says :

    Let’s all thank Bill, for an open forum … Debate is good, but let’s be civil and respectful I would say …

    OK Kory … I will say, very cute, yes, very amusing … I am referring to the post in which you reversed the word HER and HIM … I will be honest and say that no matter what else I do say here, I like your fire … It is attractive in a woman, to a man like me … I do realize that you mean well and that you are fighting for your own self and for women in general in an articulate and expressive manner … Not to be taken lightly … I commend you for this … I admire it … However, I don’t think there was a reason to lay into me like you did … I hardly think, if you re-read it, that I was being derogatory of women … It was your perception and your response was rather violent and rude without understanding my deeper meaning … I was only reminding men and women that we are a different gender and that some of those lines have been crossed … Forgotten … To remind each of us to remember the NATURE of the other, especially in those type of times, should they arrive … A reminder at least from a normal perspective of historical standards of man/woman roles … You know, men protectors, women, nurturers … It’s being lost … It will need to be remembered … I think …

    You’re response in the beginning was the thing that made me realize I’d have to do a lot more explaining for you to get ME … Maybe you do now, more so, maybe you don’t … I might be making it worse … Nonetheless, your reversal of these words HIM and HER, I suppose as a play on your power, cannot hold up to the true evidence of man’s PHYSICAL domination of this planet since we have known man existed … A return to physical dominance was my storyline and that women need to take a look at their current level of understanding of this and REMEMBER it … This would be for their own good if this situation changes this badly … Or, you can march and gather and fight and eventually the inevitable will occur … I think we all know the outcome of that scenario … Look no further than Paula’s example on the Ivory Coast … If you think men here are more civil then men there, you are delusional … It’s the CONDITIONS of their life that set them into that mood of destructive, deadly behavior … It happens for a reason … Men here, will be the same, if CONDITIONS are the same … The conditions will drive their acts and behaviors …

    Please understand, it was not MY vision of women that I wrote about … OK … It was the vision of the OTHERS I see … The ones that will be the bad boys … The ones that cannot think correctly and be fair to you … The ones I feel you will need to worry of and fear … Because I surely will … From the standpoint of my own woman and her safety ( don’t have one right now, other issues to tackle, and I’m sure you’ll tell me why I don’t have one and not surprised with my attitude as is, I see it coming, go ahead ) … But you laid into me like I see women as inferior or denied the power women possess today, when the opposite is true … I see it, acknowledge it and as an analyst think it is a bubble, yes … A big gigantic bubble like the world financial scene is a bubble … And it screams out to me because it is way past the norm … It’s radical … It’s an observation I see that will change … Not because I wish it or want it … It is in an extreme position … I think women are in for a bear market, period … That is all … I view it purely technically and not personally … YOU, took it very personally … Women’s rise in stature has a wave count too … It will rise and fall … I see it at a crescendo … Like the DOW …

    When the statistic hit the wire some 18 months ago or so that women had SURPASSED men in the workplace in America, it hit me like a freight train, as an analyst … It is a profound piece of data to coincide with a gathering top of the DOW … I just happen to think, after extrapolation of the facts and doing a little thinking, that women are falling with the DOW for many reasons … I may be completely wrong … But I don’t think so … I think this one wipes the slate clean and it’s a do-over … A mulligan … Things are not working like they are right now … Relationships are ugly and the fight goes on … There is a battle … And this will shake-up the gender landscape … It’s a theory … Based on some information and gut-feelings … That’s all …

    In technical terms iregarding the cognitive sciences, I believe we are witnessing what is called an AVAILABILITY CASCADE … Go read about it …

    Women, are wonderful, beautiful creatures … But I have seen and witnessed, first-hand, an immense change in their attitudes and behaviors in the last 20 years … I see denial … There has been acceptance of it and it has cascaded … There have been an overwhelming number of gender role reversals now … And it is not good for the whole as I see it … It is good for them … Under the hood it is affecting men in ways we cannot talk about or even put our finger on … That is how I see it objectively … Right or wrong … I see it … I have lived it … It is not my imagination … Women run the show right now … But not for the reasons they truly think are real … It is not natural … Not normal … It is very different … And I believe there is something going on beneath the surface, like a tsunami, that will re-order it back to what was more normal … It’s complicated … It crosses many lines … It will find its way to reckoning … But it will not stay like it is … I don’t believe so … I am not advocating it … I do not wish for it … I just see it and feel it and have decided to report on it … And it seems to have caused some commotion …

    I appreciate your apology … I know if I disagreed with you on something, I still would never call you names like that … That’s just me … I know you did not mean to hurt me, but rather to protect yourself, rightfully so … I hope I have made myself more clear on what I was really trying to say …

    Now, back on-topic …

    FROM BILL: I want to add something here. Behavior like what you described in your other post, Christopher (where the more barbaric aspects of male behavior toward women could come out if society breaks down) is connected to the developmental level of the man in question. The kind of behavior you describe is more likely in the developmental level characterized by gangs–a more tribal level of development in which power is a key value. In the West, most (though not all–we certainly have gangs, for instance) people are past this developmental level. For that reason I think it’s less likely to happen in more developed countries, at least on a mass scale. It is more likely to happen in Middle Eastern countries, however. The sort of behavior you describe is similar in terms of values to many of the beliefs and practices toward women we see in places like Audia Arabila and Iran, for instance.

  173. Caveman says :

    Nikola, yes, I got it … I like your attitude … I feel your goodness, your warmth and your understanding … I appreciate you …

  174. Kory says :

    Nikola Kress Says:
    some think they can call someone else an “idiotic moron”

    Nikola, this was never said………go back and check, it’s not too far.

    It was ass-u-me d.

    ‘Neanderthal’-Yes, guilty as charged

  175. Caveman says :

    Nikola: you said …

    “So I’m kinda willing to exchange my valued single status to a sweet, romantic twosomeness… anyone interested? (tongue in cheek)
    I’m 40, curvy, long blond hair, love to give hugs, and am currently meditating on purification level 4… (tongue poking hole through cheek)”

    Who wouldn’t be … Or should I say, what MAN wouldn’t be … I promise I don’t have a club, really … And I vow to you I am not a WUSS …

    I’m interested … twosomeness good …

    Bill, ever thought of holosync connection dating site? … It’s your next invention, I know … Just do it … You have me as your business partner to design the website …

    Would anyone else like to see Bill do this ?

    I think a vote is in order …

  176. Caveman says :

    Carlos:

    I re-read your statement again … I have another comment …

    I disagree that Kory accepted it … I still don’t think she has … Not really … The other women, yes, mostly agree to this theory and never took a stance like hers … Look at her writings … I don’t really care if she beleives it or not … I have only tried to increase her vision about a shift in behaviors that might threaten womens staus quo at that new time … I don’t need you to press me on it … I think I know what I hear well enough … I’ll protect whoever deserves protecting, when or if the time comes … Bet your ass on that …

    I think she has a false illusion of her power, according to these TIMES AHEAD and perhaps has not thought it out well, before yelling at me … Only those times ahead, can teach someone like Kory … Like I said, it’s a case of normalcy bias, in my opinion …

    I just don’t like the way you interjected … Kinda called me out, so to speak … Well here I am … If somebody wants to push me on, by the time this is over, EVERYONE will know, I am not a WUSS …

    Had to get that off my chest … Peace …

  177. Dieter - no geek here says :

    Dear Bill,

    Thanks for your reply. I totally agree with you with respect to rather seeing the forest over counting the trees (or waves for that matter). Still I think we should recognize the flaws of our tools of observation. There is a hindsight trap in the approach of the model used, that is why their prediction have usually problems with timing. However if one repeats a “prediction” long enough it will some day come true eventually, that even works with lottery ; – ) Just for clarity I am not a geek, I just have sound understanding and many years of practical experience in the live application of math and how to work with models and uncertainty and how “not to”. Knowing the limitations of your tools is as important as knowing their strength, later it all boils down to WHAT YOU DO WITH THAT, and that was the point (missed though) in my earlier post.
    Social mood has been a constant issue as our culture could be labelled to suffer the “Titanic Syndrome” since many centuries. First we claim that it can´t sink, and for the “impossible” case it does, we provide just enough life boats for the “happy few” when we steer the boat in a reckless and incompetent way – the ”s… hits the fan”. Does this anger the mass? Yes it does. It was not a cyclical pattern that provoked the French public to apply the Guillotine which is the main reference of your blog. It is not that the mass has a “period” and gets “social PMS” on a cyclical pattern. We have to ask “why?” I think. In my opinion it was this attitude and pure hunger which drove the mob to the wall. (Being German I studied the French revolution quite intensively). While the royals asked why those people do not eat cake if they do not have bread, the mass, the crowd went from hungry to fed up and then to violent. Quite a “normal” crowd behavioural pattern. There are other great examples of social mood turning though, like the fall of the Berlin Wall where people did not get de‑captivated which was a great shift and a mayor milestone in closing down socialism. It shows that it does not need to go “bad” if we act right. In former East-Germany the people as well were fed up, but they just walked away not employing any Guillotines and baskets.
    The point I made is, we are dealing with options and uncertainty here, so there is risk and chance some probabilities and not certainty. The past is only a good predictor of the future if we do not introduce creative solutions and run our issues on “autopilot”. So we need to step out of “autopilot”.Pure awareness of bleak possibilities just creates helplessness and depression (See M. Seligman for more).
    History and reality has proven without a shadow of a doubt that socialism does not work however our alternative has its flaws too as we do not stop greed and ignorance either (in fact we seem to admire it and make it like an objects to pray to with admiration). Letting things go sour on “autopilot” with solid faith in the inevitably of the outcomes due to some mechanical principle is not going to change anything either. That is why I pointed towards inspiration rather than resignation, to looking for solutions to break through tendencies. We got to work on new ways to do economics in a smarter and less ignorant way, improve checks and balances. Bill, you are totally right, social mood is at stake here and it can be a wild beast, however we need inspiration now and not righteousness, we need “out of the box” and creative thinking rather than getting stuck by the predictions and we need to take inspiration from our views and create in a “hands-on” and creative way new systems which avoid the possible critical consequences of change in social mood. May be social mood can transform to the better, let’s work (rather than hope) for that, seeing the risks (rather than getting too impressed by them).
    Cheers Dieter

  178. Kathy S says :

    To Christopher:

    I have to agree with you on the subject of guns. If the s… does hit the fan in a worst case scenario, it does not bode well for the US of A.

    As if it isn’t bad enough over there already in the “death by gun” department. It’s a scary thought to think how much worse it could actually get.

  179. Caveman says :

    JEM:

    I read your words … I respect your viewpoint, because it is yours and you believe it … I personally think it is little fluffy in its nature, for lack of a better word … Accusatory in ways … I didn’t kill the buffalo, ok … Or any other animals … I have empathy and respect for this planet and value nature deeply … And if you understood Elliott Wave Theory, you’d understand that it IS nature … The nature of US … And yes, it paints onto the canvas right now, an ugly picture of ourselves … There is much wrong with the state of the planet …

    So, you feel my take on that issue of women I wrote about is based in a lack of education AND that I am feeling this way based on MY own fears … You are free to espouse … It sounds good, but it’s not the truth of it, at all … For me, it’s like an out of body experience … I’m observing something I feel is coming for SOMEONE else, not myself … I fear for THEM … And I am trying to warn … And I think I presented the facts pretty logically … I made sure to be kind and let women know I love them and that this is not about inferiority … It’s about vulnerability … I have to be honest and raw about where I see their attitudes … But in no way and by no means, do I feel they are inferiror … I think they are in for an awakening … Ok …

    To say I do not respect women by the things I said tells me there is bias … It was not heard properly … But I warned in the beginning before I said anything, it would be controversial, because I already KNEW there is a bias and one that is quite charged … The fact is that I care and respect woman immensely … I’m worried for them because I think they have crossed some lines in their attitudes that will be handled differently by men if times change like I envision … That is the point I was making … You can make it whatever you want … I’ve made it clear by now, what I meant …

    Regarding Freud, yes, I have spent time on him … I do believe he has it correct about the truth of the drive in us from early on … I think he nails the raw truth of human nature at its very core … I can relate to it personally …

    In closing, I will say: I can tell that you are a spiritual person that views things in a sacred manner … Believe it or not, I do too … Bless you for that, JEM … Peace …

    FROM BILL: I would prefer that we at least TRY to stick to comments on my post. This back and forth thing about your original comment about men maybe needing to protect women if times get chaotic enough seems kind of like beating a dead horse at this point. Maybe you guys should meet under the clock at Macy’s at noon and talk about it over a latte.

  180. Kory says :

    Bill: …………sigh……………

    I am really looking forward to Part 3…………when will you find the time?

  181. Caveman says :

    JEM:

    When Eisler wrote that book, we were beginning the bull market run … She may have well been brilliant and had insight into the TRUE psyche of men and projected what they would do … I’ve never read her work … All I know is I look at this from an historical and analytical point of view … I see outcomes, based on wave formations and extreme conditions in various areas of life …

    The woman issue JUMPS out to me … OK … The bull market is over … The bear is in town … And he has big, sharp teeth … I can see clearly that if a woman behaves and sports an attitude like Kory has, not that this is the totality of Kory either, she will be dealt with in a fashion that will change her mind quickly about power … Eisler is correct if she assumed men cannot handle it … Kory will change not becasue she is inferior, JEM … But because she is weaker, physically, than these entities will be, which would be angry, desperate and losing sight of civility … She will want to survive … And it will require change … Hence, a humbing of attitude …

    CONDITIONS, I say, will rule the mood and the behavior thereof … It will affect men and women alike, in various ways … The predominant theme being: Men will get much more agressive and women will take notice and withdraw, to preserve themselves …

  182. Jeff says :

    Bill said: “When debating how many Elliott waves can dance on the head of a pin, it’s possible to miss the oncoming train, if I can horribly mix metaphors.”

    Horribly well mixed indeed; nice one.

    Thanks for pointing to the trees; I was lost in the Pointless Forest with Oblio.
    Chunk up, chunk down.

  183. Kory says :

    Bill,
    Seeing this is your blog I will respectfully direct my comments to you.

    As I previously mentioned, I am not qualified to argue socionomics or Wave theory etc. So, I took the liberty to send Chrisopher’s thesis to a friend, a man I respect, for analysis. HIS qualifications are endless: Graduated Princeton U, many years as a Computer Scientist for NASA and other prominent organizations, the list is long. He has worked extensively around the globe, he is one of the most insightful men I know. He has requested to keep his personal information private while granting permission to quote him on his response. It is exact as follows:

    Quote/The gentleman does not say much in his many, many words.
    I would assume he has lost few bucks on the stock market,
    so he is trying to understand and justify what happened.

    The market is based on greed and making money.
    The making money does not always work. :-)

    Karl Marx already predicted, the rise and fall of the market, but very few people had listened.

    At the end I would say BS, don’t pay much attention./endquote

    PS:(now you know where I got the Marx thing)

    FROM BILL: Elliott Wave isn’t just saying that markets go up and down. It is identifying a patterned way in which that happens. RN Elliott is pretty darned famous for spotting and studying this pattern, and Robert Prechter is carrying on that work. Prechter, by the way, has lectured at the London School of Economics and other such places. He is no wacko schlub by any means. Everyone may not agree with him, but he is highly respected in the financial community and LOTS of people follow his work.

    And, for the nine millionth time, this whole subject really wasn’t designed to be about Elliott Waves, per se. It was about social mood, how it changes, and what happens when it does.

  184. Gloria says :

    Christopher Caveman, I am getting the distinct feeling that there are more than a few unresolved personal issues colouring your viewpoint. Defensiveness is always a pretty good indicator. I just can’t take you seriously anymore. What’s hiding in your shadows?

  185. michelle s says :

    PART 3 PLEASE!

    FROM BILL: Coming soon.

  186. Bill,

    Oh no! You’ve created a monster! You’ll have to rename this “The Elliott Wave that Ate the Blob that Ate the Blog that Ate Mindchatter.”

    ;-)

    Rich

    FROM BILL: Yes, I think I have indigestion.

  187. Caveman says :

    Dieter:

    You have some well thought concepts and obvious knowledge … After reading it, I felt impressed by your intellect and contribution, yet see that I think there is a piece missing … Forgive me, I’m not trying to sound like a know it all … And I’m not trying to squash any enthusiasm left in anyone’s soul … But you guys know me now … I’m a realist … Objective to the core …

    Kory, hush please, I’m working here … :-)

    I think the piece that is missing, is that at this time, NOW, in history, the common man has lost touch with the control panel of his own damn life … Someone else if flying this craft … Yes, now it is a jet plane, rather than a high speed auto I metaphorically used in an earlier post … Yep, we’re crusing, about 600 mph, 40,000 feet off the ground … And we don’t even have a clue how to use this steering wheel …

    We are on rows 21-30 past the wings, sipping on a coke or an alcoholic beverage and don’t really realize that the left side engines have gone out, the rudder don’t work, we’re leaking fuel, there’s a storm apparoaching that is of a great violent nature, the landing gear is not going to work when we try to use it etc … Get the picture? … But we’re reading a newspaper or watching a DVD on a laptop or playing a stupid game on an iPod … WAITING, for the hot meal to come out and be delivered … Yep, that’s US … EXPECTING more of the same, indefinitely …

    SOMEBODY ELSE is now in control of our destiny … Richard Martin has some solid points and BTW, Rich, another good piece of writing … The picture the DOW paints now is not generally a picture of all of our moods yet, but rather one of a centralized controlling few … i.e. The guys with the big bucks … Your bucks … And in reality, the bad guys … Wall Street, Banks, Brokers/Dealers, Central Banks, IMF, etc etc etc … They are trounching through dangerous territory with your money on their back … The pouch it’s in is NOT flame retardant … There are fires breaking out all around them … They will run for the hills when they see the fire gets large enough … That could be anytime … And to make sure they make it out safely, they will forego the safety of your money and llighten their load as to protect themselves … Meanwhile … We’re on the craft that is destined to crash, waiting for our hot meal, ok …

    Having said that, the pattern that is ABOUT to emerge, IS going to be OUR mood, if any of us survive … It would indicate the mood then, of ALL OF US … That is, when the DOW crashes and takes us all with it … After all, they are trading OUR money, not their own … Our 401K’s, IRA’s, Pensions’s etc … I’m convinced that we have no control now … No coordinated way to even gain any control back … We’re all in debt and in fear of losing our jobs and homes and have been worked into a corner … A holding pen, if you will … We are owned and out choices are becoming slim …

    I think and believe that the common man and woman in our society has contributed to this in unknowing ways … By accepting credit … By leveraging oueselves and selling into the hype … We’re all to blame in ways for our positions … Some of you may be ok … I used to be really ok, financially … But not now … As time went by, we wanted a better and better life, even if we had to leverage our future with lots of risk to obtain it … We figured we’d deal with it when it came due … HOPING, somehow, it would all work out … You know, a raise, better job, home appreciation etc … Not happening …

    NOW, it’s coming due … All you have to do is lose your job and you will feel it … I have … It’s a lonely place … Shut out … But I got lucky and landed a job today at The Home Depot to make a few bucks and stay in the game to get my career back … I personally don’t think it’ll last that long … But I am grateful to work in the garden center for a company I happen to like a lot … For those of you that do not know, I am a software engineer and web developer … But I have been humbled to no end … Only from this venue, do you realize what is going on, trying deperately to get back in … Most doors are closed and competition is fierce … It’s brutal out there … I know first hand …

    I will work with people now, not the machine so much … But I feel our days are numbered and that this will go into a dive, suddenly … None of us know the day … The craft we sit aboard is getting ready to provide a rough ride … The air masks are about to drop out of the overheads, OK … So, sit back, and have another drink … You cannot get off this ride … And you cannot control where it is going … The discontent that reflects a truly massive and pervasive mood change will be measured in the chart as the DOW plunges below 1000 over the next 4 years …

    Caveman, rests his case …

  188. Kory says :

    And, for the nine millionth time, this whole subject really wasn’t designed to be about Elliott Waves, per se. It was about social mood, how it changes, and what happens when it does.

    Gotcha Bill,
    Ready and willing to move on Captain.

    CC never did ‘grasp’ my big stick theory anyway
    Sorry,sorry,sorry………………..
    I’ll go meditate.

  189. Caveman says :

    10 REASONS to think … 10 REASONS to change …
    —————————————————————————————

    01 – “Ridicule is the tribute paid to the genius by the mediocrities.”
    ~ Oscar Wilde

    02 – “I have endured a great deal of ridicule without much malice, and have received a great deal of kindness not quite free from ridicule.”
    ~ Abraham Lincoln

    03 – “Let my name stand among those who are willing to bear ridicule and reproach for the truth’s sake, and so earn some right to rejoice when the victory is won.”
    ~ Louisa May Alcott

    04 – “I prefer to be true to myself, even at the hazard of incurring the ridicule of others, rather than to be false, and to incur my own abhorrence.”
    ~ Frederick Douglass

    05 – “Ridicule often checks what is absurd, and fully as often smothers that which is noble.”
    ~ Sir Walter Scott

    06 – “I have made a ceaseless effort not to ridicule, not to bewail, not to scorn human actions, but to understand them”
    ~ Baruch Spinoza

    07 – “Ridicule is the first and last argument of a fool”
    ~ Charles Simmons

    08 – “Ridicule is the language of the devil”
    ~ Thomas Carlyle

    09 – “Ridicule is generally made use of to laugh men out of virtue and good sense, by attacking everything praiseworthy in human life.”
    ~ Joseph Addison

    10 – “Nothing has more retarded the advancement of learning than the disposition of vulgar minds to ridicule and vilify what they cannot comprehend”
    ~ Samuel Johnson

    —————————————————————————————
    Bill … I’ll leave you with the hecklers … If the opinion were done with any finesse, care, taste or proof thereof, it would be OK … If the hecklers had contributed worthwhile, that which I could gleen, my mind steadfast, would stay the scene …

    Caveman had enough …

  190. ROSARIO from EUROPE [Italy] says :

    Dear BILL,
    if the CAOS of the SYSTEM creates the REORGANIZATION of the SYSTEM itself at HIGHER LEVEL,
    after you described the CONSEQUENCES of this CAOS of the WORLD,
    PLEASE could you now describe HOW COULD the WORLD BE REORGANIZED at HIGHER LEVEL [thanks to this CAOS] ?
    THANK YOU.
    ROSARIO [Italy]

    FROM BILL: It might not.

  191. Santiago says :

    I think Dieter articulated in a technically grounded way what I’ve been trying to say.

    I don’t deny that we can identify patterns that repeat in nature, like the discovery of social mood patterns. But to have SUCH CERTAINTY that we’re condemned to experience the same consequences of this mood swings over again and again, I believe is dangerous, naive, and closes many options for development and creativity, I think it denies the very essence of many of your teachings.

    Bill, you’re the one that taught me how beliefs become self-fulfilling prophecies and how we accommodate facts to fit our own beliefs and turn them into evidence. Like Dieter, I also think that you presented this theories as objective facts “backed up by tons of data” as an irrefutable proof of the future. They are not.

    I know you’ve studied this topics for years, that’s an advantage AND a problem. The more we know about something the more we become more and more full of it, our mind closes around it.

    Did you know that Einstein, one of the greatest minds in history spent his last years trying to proof that our current interpretation of quantum theory was wrong ? Why ? Because it didn’t fit his model of the world. “God doesn’t play dice” he told Niels Bohr …..

    Bohr’s response: “Stop telling God what to do with his dice”.

    I think you mean well in trying to alert about what’s happening, but the title of the blog is certainly lacking humility, I guess you where also trying to be controversial and get attention, which worked !!

    Again, this is not about defending or attacking this or that theory or prediction, like I said, all you predict is something that CAN happen.

    But this is more about humility around the fact that life is really uncertain, and therefore fascinating and mysterious, scary and full of moment by moment wonder, it’s about keeping our hearts and minds open and not entirely selling our minds to our own opinions and models of the world, no matter how much “evidence” we have about them.

    Another one from Bohr : “Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future”

    Now …. c’mon everyone !! let’s see who posts the 200th comment !!

    FROM BILL: What is going to happen to the woirld has nothing to do with what I believe. What happens to ME does have something to do with what I believe, but no matter what I believe, the giant world of cause and effect can overcome it.

    And, facts are not beliefs. Rocks ARE hard, no matter what you believe.

    I’ll stand by what I have said. The world IS going to Hell in a handbasket. Just wait and see.

    This doesn’t mean you have to be unhappy, and it doesn’t mean you have to be unprepared. You have control over four things, if you are aware enough to see how you create them: 1) how your feel, 2) how you behave, 3) which people and situations you attract or become attracted to, and 4) what meanings you assign to what happens. The rest is beyond your control, other than to contribute your tiny, tiny, tiny bit of influence to the giant web of cause and effect.

    To characterize what I’m saying as “certainy” is a result of your not paying attention. All along I have said that this is governed by probabilities. I will say, though, that social mood is going to become VERY negative (you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet). And that IS a certainty. Wait and see. Nothing will prevent it.

  192. Mike D. says :

    Aren’t we more likely, in periods of negative social mood, to concentrate on what happens when social mood turns negative?

    FROM BILL: Well, don’t most people notice what is happening around them?

  193. Kathy S says :

    Do we really have to wait for 200 comments? What can there possibly be left to say?

    I’m with Kory and Michelle. PART 3 please Bill!

    FROM BILL: The number of comments has nothing to do with when I post part 3. I just have to get the time to get it ready.

  194. Dieter says :

    Thanks for your nice feedback Caveman. Just a quick comment: objectivity is a myth… it is not real as long as we are arguing in a world of duality and that is what we do here, that is the larger context of this blog. Well as a pro in financial markets I learned and practices the art of leverage, however usually people are not educated about that, in particular in financial contexts. I have seen fortunes made and lost due to leverage. Leverage has a lure as strong as future telling has and it is a potential trap for unprofessional application (even by so called pros) and a true challenge for our weak spots such as ego, greed and fear. I traded through the crash in the stock market in 1987 and survived other financial crashs is bond and commodity markets. I had to experience colleagues literally jumping out of the window or investors taking their lives and have seen very tough guys bursting in tears and collapsing – I am not talking theory here, I have been there and more than once, although I have not experienced riots and mass panic on a social scale, but I do not lack any imagination based on what I have “lived” on a smaller context and scale. One thing I learnt, there are 3 types of people in crisis: the one’s who are paralysed, doing nothing just being in victim or passive mode, the one’s who panic and loose control (including the nasty ones) and some people who muster their greatest faculties when the times get tough. i.e. everybody has a theoretical choice to which group he wants to belong if he gets a moment of stillness and has a grip on panic or depression.

    Santiago, yes I agree we are talking on the same lines. Bill has almost convinced me that he has closed his mind and heart as he is treating probabilities as certain…. a man who is willing to bet anything (going all-in) is kind of “blind” to other options and possibilities. Well that is his birthright and it provides the starting point of this exchange. I highly respect him for his passion an view even though I do not agree with his conclusion on “certainty” or the “action side”. And with all due respect you are right I think you are on the spot when you wrote: “ … I think it denies the very essence of many of your teachings“.
    Frankly speaking I do not care about being right here, my experiences and life taught me humility the rough way – but I am grateful for that. I am educated to deal with risks in the stage of anticipating them and when they are materializing, really that is what life is about to a great deal anyway. Experience told me that tough times can be a fertile ground for change and new ideas and actions, so I am inspired to take Bill’s scenarios as an inspiration to be creative. Well as I pointed out, I created a new idea for making exchange of goods and services possible in a world where financial markets and the monetary system stopped to work. It took me some creative and zero-based thinking and only the recent financial crisis provoked me to do that. The world is not black or white to me, it is coloured. But we need leadership here and creativity and strong values, people who “walk there talk”. M. Galdwell – Blink, has shown that one can apply the theory of epidemics to make the trends “tip”…wouldn’t´t that be an exciting challenge rather than employing a depressive view with no perspective of anything but disaster? What is the worst that can happen? One fails and the expected disaster happens, well that is a given if we just sit tight, so no added risk here and according to expectations a more or less promising chance to tip the tide. Worth an effort? That is for me the true challenge and issue at hand here. Cheers Dieter

    FROM BILL: Saying than nothing is totally objective is NOT a valid argument against something. If it were, you could refute Newton’s laws, and anything else, by just saying there’s no such thing as objectivity.

    Since I never said anything about “certaintly” except in the general sense that a) we ARE entering a time of declining social mood (you’d have to be blind to not see that), b) these times happen periodically, b) certain kinds of things happen in such times, and have done so repeatedly, putting up the straw man of “Bill is saying that everything is certain” is also a fallacious argument. I never said it. Saying I am blind to other options and possibilities is a ridiculous charge, one you are making out of pure ignorance of who I am and what I am thinking.

  195. Brian Snellgrove says :

    The rate of entropy seems to be increasing. I’m thinking of the arrogance with which Americans use HAARP as an earthquake machine to blackmail countries that do not follow the policies such as New Zealand the threatening of Jon Keys the Prime Minister. I’m thinking of the real ID act, which will be law in a couple of months, where every citizen is obliged to carry a card with capacity to hold up to 2 GB of data and have a GPS tracking system. You will not be able to fly, or enter a public building that you show your ID card.
    As Naomi Wolf says this is a repeat of the 10 steps that Hitler took to bring Germany from a democracy to a dictatorship, except that this time it is being done on a far bigger scale, more dangerous toys part of the scenario.
    It may be that mankind in general has lost its vigilance and has the mindset that can easily be overtaken by the psychopathic mindset of people in the American government, the rulers behind the scenes, Zionists, and the European Union.
    I think the idea of the second coming of Jesus Christ, is a dangerous comforter. Why should he come? To save us from what? And what have we done to deserve it? If were to believe the Bible, he gave us free will in the first place. So will He now change his mind?
    I believe that we can wake ourselves up now, or be woken up later. I spend a great deal of time studying the subject from 9/11 onwards and with this am horrified that in spite of the clearest evidence against, most people are content to accept the official explanation.
    For my own part, I believe in being true to myself, being close to nature, fully enjoying my belief in the continuity of consciousness, beyond death, and hoping that I’ll end up in a better place, or should I say a place that I deserve.
    I’m very cautious about speaking to other people and have learned to jump in gently and ask questions rather than make statements. If you scare them off. They dismiss you.
    Brian

    FROM BILL: These are the kinds of things that have happened historically in times of negative social mood.

    As for Jesus coming back, you may have seen the bumper sticker: “Jesus is coming back, and boy is he pissed!”

  196. catherine H says :

    Just wanted to thank the person who recommended Becker’s book about death anxiety. A sobering but enthralling read so far.

    Do excuse me I’m off for a shit.
    (Joke.)

  197. Andy W. says :

    Can’t quite dismiss one nagging thought: If the imminent downward diving social mood is powered by FEAR, then what happens if we discover the fundamental driver, at least in America, is something else?

    Fear in the US seems to me more of the amusement park variety than primordial in nature. That is to say, after 75 years or so of “safety net” economics is it possible there has been a profound shift in the sense of entitlement we have here? Is it possible that new sense will influence 1)”how we (as a people) feel,” 2) “how we behave,” 3) “what situations we attract or become attracted to,” 4) “what meanings we assign to what happens around us.” I know that after 9/11, the whole country caught it’s collective breath as if a ghost had jumped out at us at the haunted house ride in Disney Land. And I also know that collective sigh lasted about a day, until everyone realized the party was still on.

    I think America is better symbolized in a way in the trust-fund frat boy, and the trust-fund frat boy is above all else a self-assured creature. Don’t get me wrong, there’s plenty unsightly behavior and unsavory consequences experienced at a typical, outrageous frat party. The frat house is usually a shambles (neglected infrastructures?); the arrogance of the members often results in a bullying attitude toward others (pre-emptive strike doctrine?); general debauchery utterly contributes to problems while simultaneously inhibiting nobel and productive solutions. But fear is hardly the primary motivation behind this developmental level.

    I wonder if the general “safety net” sense of entitlement has jaded our natural sense of fear. The facts are the facts to be sure: that “safety net” has been been bought and paid for with an over-leveraged economy, but frat boys have a uncanny knack for avoiding paying the piper. They just grab another beer and wait it all out, knowing in that pre-consious sort of knowing that everything’s going be okay tomorrow.

    And my question is, if that’s the mental state of our collective mood, how does that change the way things may play out? how does that change the probabilities on the social mood bell curve?

    FROM BILL: I think you are correct that there is an entitlement mentality, and that Americans are spoiled, but I don’t think this is true for everyone. What you see and hear in the media does give that impression, though. Many people are solidly into personal responsibility and don’t feel a selfish sense of entitlement. Personally, the only thing I want from the government is to protect the sanctity or contracts, to protect my right to keep what I create or earn, and to protect me in case some other counry tries to invade the US. Everything else I’m happy to do for myself or directly pay for if I use it.

  198. Paula says :

    These comments are getting tit for tat. We will all get along just fine once you realize that I am always right.

    Group hug time and lets take devastation to the next level.

    Joe King.

    FROM BILL: Paula, I knew from the beginning that you are always right. But, really, what good has that done you?

  199. Mike D. says :

    FROM BILL: Well, don’t most people notice what is happening around them?

    Most people notice what they focus on and what is left after they filter the incoming data.

    FROM BILL: True. However, it’s hard not to notice being unemployed, constant political bickering (or worse), higher prices, increased corruption, riots in multiple countries, etc. Certainly some people don’t pay attention to anything but their own lives, but most people know that something pretty negative is unfolding.

  200. Dave H says :

    Bill – great posts and responses. I have been a part-time student of elliott wave, herd theory, madness of crowds, candle stick and other charting methods to gain advantage in the markets and spiral dynamics, intergral theory, holosync, and your life princiapls teachings for self improvement. I cannot disagree with anything you have extrapolated from decades of study and application and have shared with us on the blog. Anyone who does will miss a real opportunity to be prepared but also profit and enhance their life goals. In April 2010 I was on a call with Robert R. Prechter, Jr to learn more about socionomics and it was facinanting. His recomendations on the market were misguided however as he was focused on disinflation recomending staying in cash – out of gold and out of the market. His data was flawed as he was looking at real estate and tech in the mix to determine dis inflation. It was obvious to me oil and commodities would rise as they have. I played some leaps on Blue chips with 50% of my account, covered calls with 20% and stayed 30% in cash. If I took his advice my account would have about 80% of the purchasing power if I stayed in cash. Instead I increased it over $120,000.00 on $200,000.00 at work in one year. I now think we are closer to a very sustained sell off in Q3 so I am shorting the market with some straight puts on certain sectors and some naked puts on companies that I like but would only own cheap. In any of this intel we need to trust but verify on our own. The probabilty charts don’t lie in most cases but human beings interpretations can. A broken clock is right twice a day so anyone can point to their predictions that worked out. I am going to do some back testing on elliott wave back to the 30’s for a history lesson.

    P.S. For Christopher – your insights on Elliott Wave and Social Mood were helpful – thank you – but you need to rethink your stance on woman’s need to have a man for protection as the anarchy starts. I would rather have a well armed female marine with me in a dark alley than some of the men walking around my neighborhood. You need to get a gym memebership and try and keep up with some of the women in a yoga, weight lifting or spinning session – they kick ass. I know a group of cowardly male thugs can be dangerous to woman who are vulnerable we don’t need a history lesson there – it’s happeing in Hatti today but the American woman is a strong woman. I would drop the thinking that Kory will find out the proof – I’ll put my money on her – especially if she has kids to protect!! I know Bill want’s that dropped but needed to add my two cents as that got a little creepy.

    FROM BILL: If only every woman could be an armed Marine. I know I’m just being a dreamer, but…

    I think Prechter will turn out to be right about deflation. He is often, in my experience, off on timing, especially in shorter time periods. Overall, I think he’s going to be proven generally correct about the big picture.

    I have traded short term (quite a number of years ago now) using Elliott Wave and lost money. Though perhaps someone like Christopher has the expertise to use Elliott Wave to trade (he does his own analysis, rather than using Prechter’s), I find other methods more effective for doing so. I just find his big picture commentary highly insightful–and, so far, spot-on.

  201. Mike D. says :

    FROM BILL: True. However, it’s hard not to notice being unemployed, constant political bickering (or worse), higher prices, increased corruption, riots in multiple countries, etc. Certainly some people don’t pay attention to anything but their own lives, but most people know that something pretty negative is unfolding.

    O.k. I agree that all this is going on, but aren’t we adding to it by focusing on it? It just seems to me that the people who read this blog are (perhaps) a bit more free than your average Joe. While they are bickering, fighting, and being generally negative, would it not make sense for us to focus on the more positive things in our own lives?

    I see your point about preparing for things and all. It just seems to me that the fact that we are even discussing negative social mood probably means that we (some of us) are perhaps keeping the ball rolling.

    Maybe I’m misunderstanding though. You say there is nothing we can do to stop this, eh?

    FROM: But you see, this is a perfect (though, in this case, non-angry) example of what I have been pointing out about many of the posts by readers. I didn’t say you should focus on the negative. By all means, focus on the positive things in your life. In fact, I have repeatedly said that when people asked me what to do.

    Quite frankly, I am getting a bit weary of people putting words and meanings in my mouth. These are meanings and ideas you have ABOUT what I have said. Own them as yours. I did not say you should be negative. However, some rather grim things are happening (and many more will happen, if history is any sort of guide), and you should be aware of them. The answer to bad things isn’t ignoring them. The answer is to be aware of them, step out of the unconscious mood surrounding them, and take action to be prepared, just in case.

    Social mood has a life of it’s own. You can step out of it (which is one of my biggest goals for readers of this series)–though only if you are AWARE of it, and aware of how you are being sucked into it (awareness creates choice; without awareness people respond automatically). However, you are not going to do anything to change the slide toward negative social mood. It is too big. There are too many other unconscious humans involved. And, many of them have power over many things that affect you: the economy (which includes your job, food, energy, and shelter), the government, etc.

    This is one reason why I have been repeatedly pointing out in past posts that cause and effect–the actions of the other 7 billion people, and the physical aspects of the universe, such as weather, gravity, etc–is something over which you have only the most tiny, minor effect. Social mood is a manifestation of cause and effect. How it unfolds is not under your control. Your own mood, however, is under your control, but only to the extent that you are aware of HOW YOU CREATE IT. Your mood is a product of your own internal cognitive processes, which happen outside your awareness (which means they are NOT a choice). For them to be a choice, you have to become aware of them and watch them create your mood, as it happens.

    This is what I teach you how to do in my Life Principles online courses: which are half price right now, by the way, at http://www.centerpointe.com/life/preview

  202. Paula says :

    Bill, tell you where it got me, since you asked…(apart from alone in the ghetto, pointing my ‘told-you-so’ finger at scenarios past). Land of Paradox.
    I’ve had much success at failing. Win when I lose. Strong when weak. Always right being wrong and more confusingly I’m guessing hell in a handbasket may be quite a trip.

  203. Vic says :

    Bill says, “Personally, the only thing I want from the government is to protect the sanctity or contracts, to protect my right to keep what I create or earn, and to protect me in case some other counry tries to invade the US. Everything else I’m happy to do for myself or directly pay for if I use it.”

    A freakin’ MEN!

    That’s a Constitutional synopsis, right there.

    How far we have strayed.

  204. Dieter - bowing out says :

    Dear Bill

    I sincerely apologize for something I have not done, but I realize that you feel “ridiculously charged” by me as that was never my intention . So I really and heartfelt apologize for contributing to a misunderstanding, unintentionally I seemingly stroke a nerve with you as you seem to have taken personal what I wrote. Sorry!
    I think it was you (among others) who said successful people make more mistakes than less successful people. Well I tried unsuccessfully to argue and reason with your opinion (not with you as a person) and I stand by this mistake – my intentions were clear – mutual inspiration – and failure is a part of the equation.
    I notice that you repeat a reply to me on the “certainty” issue (which I did not raise in the first place) by putting it out of context. Almost anything when taken out of context can be invalidated or claimed to be fallacious that is a rhetoric or defensive tool and common but unjust and does not serve for a thriving and healthy exchange of opinions in my opinion. It wasn’t me claiming to know the truth here. I just gave feedback on that matter and you ignore all else I say – in particular the key points of my contribution to the discussion. (which is your birthright) So I could ask: “Who is the straw man here?” (take it easy, no victim mode here )
    Well may be we have cultural differences, I do not attack, I was looking for inspiring exchange and not for a fight of who is right or wrong or who knows more and has read more books etc. here you win hands down, as I do not compete at all. I could not care less about that, as this kind of competition is old school paradigm for me. I cherish a controversial exchange of opinions but I do not take things personal, if done, I rather leave it. My ego does not need any food, I prefer to let it starve of stimulations like that ; – ))
    Frankly speaking it is not up to me to refute Newton’s laws, A. Einstein did that already (Admitting I would not have the skill to do that and I am fully aware of that). As a consequence the whole dogma of the mechanical world view (yes I said dogma!) has received a heavy blow then when Quantum Physics, Fractal Geometry and Non-Linear Dynamics as well as Chaos Theory (in its deterministic and in particular non-deterministic form) added to the refutations of the old dogma and deterministic world view, but the old dogma is still so strong and present and has many followers, even among people who cite new science but might not have integrated the implications, as revealed by their opinions (that is quite a frequent subconscious phenomenon, that values did not catch up with the intellect). It strikes me as curious that you made reference to Newtonian physics here, as I read articles from you, where you wrote about modern physics though. My comments can be referenced to modern science and rational philosophy (of science) (Karl Popper et al. – I studied that at University). Since Einstein the limited and contextual relevance of Newton’s “laws” is an established scientific fact and everything which is just contextual is not totally objective, as it is based on premises and conditions and model based INTERPRETTIONS of the phenomenon under observation. Well Newton got it wrong (or only contextually right in a mechanical set-up) according to Einstein, not according to me – so you can try your dispute with him on that matter. I do not dive into Gödels arguments either which show the clear limits of objective insight with regard to mathematical models or statements by Niels Bohr which show the clear limits of intellectual (including the scientific method) insight and henceforth objectivity. So I ask again: What is wrong with subjectivity? Quantum physics and old philosophies (you made references to these too in your publications) agree on a possible answer to that by the way. According to Quantum Physics there is no factual observation independent of the observer (W. Heisenberg’s UNCERTAINTY principle) – a good staring point. We do not observe facts, we observe reality interpreting it and interfering (interacting) with it due to our observation. Here goes objectivity out the door! Please do not blame me for that, I do not claim to have created these possibly inconvenient insights and I really did not expect to having to make a reference to that here when I read your blog and decided to contribute my grain of thought and opinion. As Santiago pointed out even Nobel prize winners and geniuses like A. Einstein try to prove their believes (see above) – that is human after all, which does not make it “right” though. I do not care about wrong or right, as long as there is a thriving and healthy exchange of ideas and opinions, being aware of the obvious limitations, we are all quite human after all, even Einstein was. (A very interesting reference in this context is B. Lipton, “Biology of Belief”)
    Any exchange can stimulate to challenge or even rock our interpretations on the one hand or create defensiveness on the other – that is up to everybody on her/his own, so I do not take responsibility for that. Modern science knows that, but of course the old paradigm and dogma of absolute truths and objectivity has not got there and so their (conscious or unconscious) followers, as it is too appealing to the ego to drop that view and Quantum Physics and the new scientific paradigm demands more humility (and less ego). Sorry if I took for granted that in this blog there is awareness of the consequences of the quantum principles. (no pun intended) I was obviously misled by your articles on those subjects and your references to ancient oriental philosophies.
    With regard to “blindness” I just related to a comment made by Santiago, and from your own statements I infer (probably wrongly again) that you will not claim towards him what you claimed to me “ ignorance of who I am and what I am thinking.”.
    But hey, guess what – we are in agreement, as I agree with you: I do not know who you are and I do not know what you are thinking, however I never claimed to know who you are and what you are thinking. I never claimed to be a clairvoyant either. I just offered my opinions in a respectful and educated way on the matter and among other things expressed my agreement with a comment made by by your friend Santiago – no more no less. And by the way, you do not know me either and do not know what I am thinking, you choose to ignore about 80% of what I wrote (and 98 % of what I pointed out as important in my contributions) in your replies, you seem to take it personal (straw man) and focus on something of (to me) very limited importance in my outlined view – well others got the point though. Bill it was not personal (!!!), as I do not like to be drawn on that stage either.
    So – now personal – and with all due respect – how about dropping the double standard and adhering to the rules and claims you make towards me by yourself – it is old wisdom to give what you claim and clearly a sign of a certain degree of awareness. Isn’t awareness a part of your “theme”, teaching and business? Well I probably got that wrong as well…never mind.
    I am bowing out (out of contributing, continuing to follow the blog though), not out of ignorance, but out of lack of further inspiration. Humility tells me that this is your blog your game, your rules…so I make my move and see my earlier mistake. A proper discourse needs proper arguing and not defensiveness. I completely misunderstood the invitation on your site to contribute. No sweat – it was worth a try I think and clearly my mistake again. I tried, I failed and one more experience to go on the way. I close in thanking you for writing your blog and wish you well as I really respect you and your views (even though I do not know who you are). Sincerely I really do not like how our exchange has turned out, I am sorry (literally) and as always I try to learn from it.

    Santiago, if you want to keep exchanging views you might ask Bill for my e-mail address, they have it and I give permission to hand it to you. It was a pleasure to meet you

    Cheers and good bye Dieter

    FROM BILL: No one has refuted Newton’s laws. They were used to go to the moon, to create the space shuttle, and are used all the time. They very precisely describe reality. When you say things like this you reveal that you are scientifically illiterate and you invalidate much of anything else you might say.

  205. Dave H says :

    Hi Bill – I agree Precther will be and has been almost spooky on. The more I study him I realize he is a genuis. Like Micheal Jordan was in basketball where naturaul talents and a burning desire meet for something special. His brain must be wired for socionomics and he generally seems to have a passion for it and the work started by Elliott. I’m just not sure on deflation soon – eventually for sure – but hyperinfaltion or stagflation seems to be a more immenient probablility.

    One of the first books I read many years ago was The Power of Positive Thinking by Norman Vincent Peale and was hooked on the positive from then on listening to everything Nightingale- Conant offered in my car. Lately I especially learn from your teachings. They bring all that resonated with me from all the past and current thinkers, business minds, and “power of now” or Advaita type teachings together. That said I can see how the Hell in a Handbasket blog has drawn some arrows your way. For those of us attracted to your teachings it seems counter instructive at first blush. We get caught up playing the game of black and white. This blog is absolutely consistent with awarness teaching. Wanting things to be different than they actually are causes sufferring. Being prepared and taking right action doesnt. The future can look bright. I’m an optimist. But I’m also a realist. There are some hard times coming in the short term, but for those who can make it through, there will be a new era of freedom and prosperity on the other side.

    FROM BILL: What convinced me that the arguments for inflation are wrong is a 62 page paper Prechter wrote called “The Guide to Understanding Deflation” (though I have, of course, read many other things on this subject which have contributed to my point of view). You can download it for free. Go to http://www.elliottwave.com/deflation. There is some text on the page. Scroll to the botton and you’ll see at the end of the text a link to download this paper.

    This is not light reading. However, I suspect it will convince you, as it did me.

    The gist of the reasoning (though you should read the paper, as I don’t describe it anywhere near as accurately or as completely as he does, especially since I’m not reviewing the paper again before writing this, and I read it a long time ago) is as follows:

    First, there is a a tremendous (TREMENDOUS, almost unbelievable, unfathomable) amount of debt outstanding, both in the US and all around the world. When debt is created, the money supply increases. Let’s say that I have $1000. I loan it to you. Now you have the $1000, but I have your note for $1000. I can go to someone who knows you’re good for it and they will accept your note as if it were $1000 (I could pay for something using a T-bill, for instance, which is a debt owed by the Federal government, while at the same time they are also out spending the money I loaned them; or, someone could sell a corporate bond, which is also a debt, to someone else, while the corporation is also busy spending the money the bondholder loaned to the corporation–a note is, essentially, the same as money).

    So now instead of just the original $1000, there’s also another additional $1000 in circulation in the form of the note because both the original $1000 and note are, essentially, money. Because there’s more money in circulation, the prices of things are bid up. This happens whenever any debt is created: it increases the money supply, which is called monetary inflation, which then results in price inflation (the only way this can be prevented is if the supply of goods and services goes up at the same rate as the supply of money).

    When you put money in a bank account, the same sort of thing happens: you have a documents from the bank that say that you have a certain amount of money, and the bank also has the money, which it loans out.

    There are other layers to this, as when banks, using fractional reserve banking, are allowed to essentially loan out the same money multiple times. They are required to only hold a fraction of the total reserves they would need to pay all depositors. I believe the fraction these days is about 3%, which means that they can loan your deposit out 33 times! Given my first example of the $1000 loan you can imagine how this increases the money supply.

    As long as the banks have enough to pay the people who come in and ask for their money, everything is fine, and in secure times they assume that less than 3% at any given time will do ask for their money. Of course if people feel like there might be a problem, and more than 3% of the people go to the bank and ask for their money, the bank ends up broke (though there are things the banking system does to short things up if this happened on a wide scale, it is ultimately unsustainable). This is why they declared a bank holiday in the 1930s–to stop such a run on the banks.

    There are other ways the money supply is increased, which I won’t explain in detail, but something similar happens (what is called leverage) when mortgages, for instance, are bundled together and sold to investors. It’s a lot like my original $1000 becoming $2000 when you borrow it from me.

    This increase in the money supply has been going on for a long time, and dramatically accelerated in the last 10-15 years. This is why prices have gone up so much. What cost $1 today cost about 3 cents in 1913, when the Federal Reserve (the main engine of the creation of all this debt money) was started.

    This kind of leverage is risky. The more leverage, the greater the risk. A certain amount of risk is okay, and allows the economy to grow because it results in the creation of real wealth as people use the leverage to create new products, etc. In times of positive social mood, people are more likely to take big risks, and as the recent blow-off in positive social mood accelerated, the amount of leverage, and therefore the amount of risk, increased, then increased again, and again, and again.

    At a certain point, though, it is unsustainable. As with the bank run I discussed above, a relatively small downturn can wipe you out if you’re leveraged too highly. Something (which I won’t go into here) set this off in 2007, and it almost brought everythng down. Part of what kept that from happening was just smoke and mirrors, accouning gimmicks, etc. For instance, if the banks don’t have to admit that a loan is bad and will never be paid, they can continue to keep it on their books and pretend that it is still an asset.

    If you tell me you can’t pay me back the $1000, your note is essentially worthless, but if no one knows that but me, I might still be able to sell the note, or list it on a statement of net worth, as if it was still valuable. The banks have trillions worth of non-performing loans and through goverment B, they been allowed to pretend that they are still good (the Fed “buys” the worthless debt, which is calle “monitizing the debt”, for instance). This is, however, a dishonest shell game. If anyone but the governement did this, they would be in jail.

    At any rate, at a certain point one of two things happens (or both, at the same time): those who owe money fail to pay it back, which once this is admitted (which it always must be, eventually–the shell game can’t go on forever, it’s a version of kicking the can down the road) causes that money to disappear into thin air just as it was originally created out of thin air when the credit was issued (as when I made the $1000 loan); or, those who owe money DO pay it back. Recently, for instance, many people realized that being in debt in times such as these is very risky, and people are paying down their credit card debt, for instance.

    Both of these events create the reverse of what I described above when I loaned you the $1000. When a debt is paid back, or becomes unpayable–either way–that “debt money” disappears from the economy, just as it appeared when the debt was created. This is deflation, a diminishing of the money supply vis a vis the amount of goods and services.

    Too much money (from credit) vs the amount of goods and services = inflation of prices
    Too much goods and service vs the amount of money = deflation of prices

    (Wow. I meant to write one paragraph. Oh, well.)

    When this deleveraging process starts, it’s like a nuclear chain reaction. It’s pretty much impossible to stop. What the Fed, or any central bank, TRIES to do is increase the amount of money in circulation to offset the money that is disappearing through both payment and non-payment of debt (called “deleveraging”).

    In other words, despite the fact that the problem was caused by too much debt and too much leverage (the more leverage the more risk, remember), the government and the central bank want to create MORE of it. This is like having a drink to treat a hangove. This is what all the bailouts, QE1, QE2, and so forth have been about–an attempt to inject at least as much money into the system as is going to money heaven through the deleveraging of debt, as I described above.

    The trouble is that there’s no way to inject anywhere near as much money into the system as can be destroyed in the blink of an eye by the deleveraging process. This is what happened in 2007–trillions disappeared into deleveraging heaven almost instantly.

    Right now, much of the debt “assets” sitting on the books of banks, corporations, and individuals (many investments these days are someone else’s debt to the investor, including your bank account) only exists on paper. These assets are OWED to that person. In ordinary times, it is almost certain that they will be paid. Today, however, much of these debts will almost certainly never be paid. But those who are owed the money and those who owe it are pretending this isn’t so in order to forestall the harsh consequences.

    When the government and the Fed pushed all this stimulus money into the economy, instead of being lent out to people who had ideas for creating new companies, products, etc–ie, wealth creation, which could cause the economy to revive (please remember that I said that the cure for inflation was to increase the amount of goods and services as fast as the money supply was increasing), this money just went to repair the balance sheets of the banks, offsetting all the bad loans so they didn’t have to admit that all the loans they held would never be paid back. The Fed now holds much of the worthless notes, which they bought with electronic dollars they created out of thin air, and which the banks are now sitting on.

    This is, as I said above, a shell game.

    I could also go into all the unfunded liabilities, such as union pensions, Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, which are also debts that will never, and can never, be paid. And, the amounts make all of the above look trivial (though it isn’t). These unfunded liabilities are promises made that can never be kept, just as if you promised me $1000 for every blade of grass I cut when I mowed your lawn, but there’s no possible way you could ever come up with that amount of money.

    In fact the amount of deleveraging (and therefore shrinking of the money supply–deflation–involved in these unfunded liabilities dwarfs all of the bank-related stuff I decribed above. The government’s strategy for sustaining this nonsense is to raise everyone’s taxes to pay for it, or to reduce the amount people are paid in some way, such as raising the retirement age, etc., but that is like opening a lemonaide stand to pay off your mortgage–it won’t come anywhere near close to be enough.

    So, finally, I’ll get to my point. Those who think we’re in for runaway inflation point to the German inflation of the 1930s and the inflation in Zimbabwe more recently as examples of what could happen as a result of expanding the money supply–which certainly has happened, in unfathomably large amounts. On both German and Zimbabwe rates of inflation became so high that prices were literally doubling by the MINUTE. Google these two situations for more grim details if you aren’t familiar with them.

    What was different about these two situations and the current situation was that the inflation in Germany and Zimbabwe was an inflation of the amount actual, physical currency notes in circulation. To inject money into the economy they actually printed currency. There was no way for these notes to go OUT of circulation, unless they were destroyed. And, since prices were skyrocketing in a way we can hardly fathom–where worker’s were paid hourly, and their wives stood in line at the factories to get the money and run and spend it before it was worthless–no one was stashing it away, taking out of circulation. This money was NOT debt. It had no way to go out of circulation by not being paid back, or by being paid off–both of which eventually cause extra debt money to disappear.

    This debt today is so big it can never be repaid, and it is not currency. The amount of actual cash in the US is a small fraction of the actual money supply–a tiny fraction. Even if it was repaid, it wouldn’t matter. Either way, as I said, when a debt is written off as a bad debt, OR repaid, the money supply shrinks.

    And, there is no way to get anywhere near enough money into the money supply to offset the amount that is destroyed by repaying or failing to pay these debts. Not even close. This is called “pushing on a string” by economists, the idea that even if you put the money into the banks, no one will borrow it. Trying to get the money into circulation is equivalent to “pushing on a string.” Even if they dropped it from helicopters–which Fed Chief Bernanke said he might do a few years ago, if necessary (and only half tongue in cheek), people would use much of it to pay off their debts, which reduces the money supply, or they would stash it away because they are afraid to spend it, which you might have noticed is already happening–consumers are afraid to spend even if they have money, and, believe me, they will continue to feel this way.

    In inflationary times people do not save, they spend, because prices are going up. And, the feel good about going into debt because they can pay it back in depreciating dollars.

    In deflationary times people save, not spend, because prices are going down (and they are afraid of the future). They avoid debt because they would have to pay it back with dollars that are worth more than those they borrowed (money–cash–gains in value in times of deflation).

    Now, I will acknowledge that some very smart people, who I respect a lot, think runaway inflation is in the cards and the scenario I have described is wrong. I think they are wrong about this, for the reasons I’ve outlined here. I’ve been looking at and evaluating both points of view for quite some time, and I just can’t find anything that refutes what I’ve described.

    One argument that some are making is that the prices of a lot of things are going up. Of course the price of some of the most valuable things–real estate, for instance–is going down. Commodity prices are not going up, however, because of monetary inflation (there isn’t any). They are going up because of all kinds of problems caused by government interference in the economy (something I don’t have the time to go into here, though it would be worth going into). There is, in fact, a GLUT of oil in the world now. There is NOT a scarcity, which you might think. Thomas Sowell describes the difference between a scarcity and a shortage in his books about economics, which are well worth reading.

    Get Prechter’s paper about deflation and read it, if you’re interested in knowing more about this. He explains this better than I have (in a bit more of a sophisticated way, with a lot more evidence than I have cited, and in a way that might require a bit more understanding of the financial markets). In fact, if you read this paper you’ll know more about this subject than most economists (and I mean that).

  206. Dieter - what a shame says :

    Dear Bill, I am not impressed by your judgement and your intimidation tactics do not work on me. Who are you to claim to judge scientific literacy I ask. You have no credentials for that (that is a fact!) and I did not ask you either. And it is not about reading books or articles it is about getting the ideas or concepts and theories and integrating them, including their strengths and weakness, or limitations. You defend against being interpreted or words put in your mouth and go right down to plain judgement bordering on insult – Where is humility or at least good manners I ask. May be you can learn from your friend Santiago about humility. In your last comment to me you only show your personal contribution to social mood and invalidate what you say and publish and teach as non-authentic in my opinion. Just take a good look in the mirror for once and read your comment applying it to yourself. A good exercise if you know anything about oriental philosophy. I know you must talk about yourself in your last reply to me as you do not have any clue about me. For the record: your “Newtons laws” are just principles which only apply in a very limited context and stop to work in particular if you leave the gravitational field of the earth i.e. they are are not universal laws, they are context dependent. Try to calculate the trajectory of a gun bullet shot on the moon based on Newtons laws and come back to me with the result ; – ) If you do not know or get that it is not my problem but a basic and modern Physic 101 should do it to explain that. Some study in history of science might come in handy too, to see the changes in scientific paradigms. And last but not least: space flight including the moon landing and the beautiful images from Hubble was made possible by Einstein’s discoveries and theories and not Newton’s. So was the atomic bomb and nuclear energy. (Unfortunately he did not provide a solution for nuclear waste though.). I think it is time to get a grip here on some facts and your mood which you show towards me and proper reasoning. No need to leash out like that for a lack of a proper reasoning on your side – good manners are not a bad trait to have. Don’t worry, I won’t demand an apology from you because you do not seem to be a man with the guts and honour to see when he failed, in particular by the high standards you put on others that is a shame too. There is a word for that, I leave it to you to figure it out, I am sure you have read it somewhere ; – ) Cheers D.

    FROM BILL: Newton’s Laws work on the moon, too. They work everywhere in the universe. Saying otherwise just shows that you don’t have a scientific education. It is always better not to comment on things about which you don’t know much.

  207. Carlos says :

    To Christopher:

    I was not doubting your knowledge or your predictions. I did not mean that kory accepted your point of view I meant that she accepted your explanation about what you meant by your comment about ” women being more humble”

    However you continue explaning yourself on and on.

    What I meant is this

    if a man can not take women’s disaproval and rejection He is not likely to be able to stand up for women.

    Carlos

  208. Santiago says :

    Wow !! It has turned personal !! …. I’m sorry Bill I do think you tend to get personal in this blog.

    Anyway, here’s my new take:

    That rocks are hard is a FACT

    (Though you can also refute that, from a certain point of view, if we get a powerful enough microscope we can see that solid objects are made of moving particles and space, not solid – however, under our ordinary way of seeing we can say that the hardness of rocks is a fact, so yes, that’s a fact)

    That gravity is 9.8 m/s2 is a FACT – because it’s an observable measurement. Anyone with a measurement tool will get the same result about it.

    Measurements are FACTS, however, conclusions about those measurements are not facts, they are IDEAS created by organizing this measurements in a certain way, so I see a mixture of concepts here.

    I’m sorry if I’m putting words in your mouth Bill, but when you say that the world IS going to hell in a hand basket, I don’t know how else to call this but as claim of certainty about the future.

    It’s very different when we say that the world MIGHT be going to hell in a hand basket (even if the possibility of it happening is huge)- Though you make it very clear that this is not what you’re saying.

    Newton wasn’t wrong, he just draw a conclusion from the measurements he was able to observe. However, as science developed (thanks to Newton’s laws) new measurement devices showed us new aspects of reality that contradicted this laws, therefore new ways of seeing the world developed and changed our paradigm.

    So Newton was right AND wrong, his laws are still extremely helpful in our world (just that they work for a certain scale of time and space, they’re not absolute) And I bet Quantum theory itself will reach a point in which we’ll need a new paradigm, and so on and on and on …

    I see a lot of clinging to IDEAS here (I’m not refuting FACTS)

    I also have to declare myself guilty of clinging here, I’m clinging to trying to get you change your mind. which seems to be really really difficult …. you’re stubborn man …

    So I think I’ll leave it as that (for now) and follow your advice, let’s wait and see, and stay alert ! But before, I want to use the more civilized way I know to resolve this …. a BET !!

    Let’s make a bet, 5 years from now (03/10/2016) we’ll get in touch, if the world has gone to hell I’ll fly to Portland (or wherever you are) and buy you dinner (given there are still airplanes around) if not, you’ll fly to Bogotá … should I save the date in my calendar ?

    Thanks for exposing me to all this info. You’re the coolest friend and teacher, I mean it.

    PS. Dieter you can write to me santiagueri@hotmail.com it’d be cool to get in touch. Same for Christopher.

    FROM BILL: But I never said these things you are trying to refute. They came out of YOUR head. They are your ideas about what I have said, and you somehow can’t see the difference between your own ideas and what I actually said. This must be quite confusing for you, having an argument with yourself. This is called setting up straw men and knocking them down. A common logical flaw.

  209. Dave H says :

    Dieter – Contrary to widespread belief, Newton’s laws of motion are not contradicted by Einstein’s Theory of Special Relativity. Newton never made the statement that force equals mass times acceleration. Newton’s laws have not been disproven by Einstein or any later discoveries in physics in the 300 plus years since Principia so I can see where Bill is put off a bit by your thesis. Stick with this though and don’t loose the forest for the trees – this is serouis shit and we cannot let our poor ego be bruised because of a preceived slight. Who really cares or rememebers unless we get lost in the mind. I have studied a lot of thinkers who have tried to share with seekers how to make sense of the world and Bill has an amazing amount of knowledge in this area. Maybe on this issue he’s not being Dr. Feelgood but we know the world is going crazy. The animals are dying in mass die-offs. The People are revolting in the Middle East and nearly so in Wisconsin. Governments are broke and still spending money like they are drunk – psychopathic really. GMOs are spreading and the agricultural methods used right now to feed the world are entirely unsustainable. There is a food bubble in our world right now, meaning there is a temporary spike in food production over the last 50 years that cannot be sustained. The Big Pharma / sick care / FDA monopoly will collapse into financial ruin and much much more but I just made myself a little sick!!. Bill has studied the effects in social mood of a world on the brink and he is absolutely right whether we like it or not. There are ways though to stay safe, peaceful, and successful and that is the whole point I think and why I am thankful for Bill’s hard hitting ways. The worlds leaders need to wake up but they won’t until it’s too late so we really need to!!

  210. Ven says :

    Great explanation Bill ! That was very illuminating….what do you think are the solutions? should nt there be more funding for new technologies like alternate energy, which will reduce our dependency on foriegn oil? I think Obama is pushing for that, unless its all talk.

    FROM BILL: When the government must fund something in order for it to happen it is a sure sign that it is something people don’t want. Otherwise, an entrepreneur would gather together capital and provide it. Resources are best allocated based on what people want, not based on what an elite group thinks they SHOULD want. How utterly wasteful to put precious resources toward something society doesn’t want.

  211. Sanna says :

    Are we resisting or are we allowing?

    Bill writes a lot about resistance – a cource of suffering. Well, I had made my own internal interpretation of the concept of the resistance.

    Then I saw a list “What is resistance” by Christy Whitman, and that list made me realize how much resistance I have. This realization led to a huge release (catharsis).

    Resistance is (by Christy Whitman) fear, doubt, disappointment, loneliness, lack, sadness, confusion, stress, anger, hurt, resentments, envy, jealousy, blame, guilt, boredom, depression, judgment.

    Bill, thank you for all your work!

    FROM BILL: Resistance, first of all, is something you DO. You do it by making internal representations of something you don’t want. This list you made (fear, etc) are of things about which people commonly make interternal representations of what they don’t want.

  212. To Dave On Social Mood by Dieter says :

    Dear Dave,
    Thanks for your constructive comment. Sorry, it was not me who refuted Newton and downgraded his universal laws to approximative (but very useful formulas) for practical purposes. It is rigorous science who did that. I suspect that Newton would have agreed with Einstein much less reluctantly that people who convert science in to dogma (which converts it in just another religion and spills out its value into the gutter). Newton’s merits as a great mind and researcher did not take a scratch. Progress is made like that, great women and man always stand on the shoulders of other great women and men. It is dogma and ignorance, ego and righteous about ideas, theories and ideologies which are at the root of many conflicts.
    I hope we can agree to disagree without it getting personal as in the case of Bill. I do not like to be scolded and judged by someone incompetent to that task. I value proper and educated criticism or feedback though. I respect your esteem for Bill and his intellect but he did not reveal that to me with his (self-)righteous comments to my posts (more to the contrary).

    Social mood: I do no disagree with the possibilities (or in mathematical terms probabilities) of the social mood scenarios. In that matter I have voiced my disagreement on the level of “what to do with it” and rather than exchanging about that Bill choose to ignore my views here to start a silly fight about who is right and making it personal.
    Taking on Bills scenarios from a Risk Management point of view requires to do something and not see things as inevitable and avoiding to contribute to the “expected” result by just observing reality. Taking initiative and reasonable action here is understanding the flaws of the current economic and social dynamics and looking for amendments. Just asking for protection by the government won’t work. I do not think that the tax-payers felt protected when they had to bail out the banks and car manufacturers including the outrageous bonuses for the people who were paid for responsibility and did not take it when the tide turned. In East-Germany in 1989, when people walked away the military did not shoot anybody to protect the system and to follow the law. You know why? They did not want to shoot their families and or commit suicide as they themselves were walking away. That is historical evidence of social mood turning negative, producing positive result for the public and a negative result for the elite clinging top their privileges and power. It would have helped Bill to study that part of history to get a better grip on social mood in action rather than theoretical models.
    I agree with Bill though, if we wait for the government it is probably not working or they do things without the consent of the public good in mind, they just follow the pressure of their lobbies which usually have very particular interests. In economics there is a whole theory on “public goods” (quite interesting and complex stuff) which reasons about a phenomenon that not all services and goods which are needed by the public are provided by entrepreneurial initiative or the private initiative will deliver a poor value do to the monopolistic nature of these goods (This theory has nothing to do with socialism!). So we need to cooperate with the government,. I firmly believe that the creative impulse ought to come from the private sector. So it was no accident that Einstein wrote his famous paper while working in the patent office. First he was ridiculed and later everybody claimed that they knew it all the time – typical hypocrisy.
    I think what is needed is more than models and prognostics or awareness which point to an exclusively inevitable and there for depressive stance. One could think of private initiative for a think tank of people who are a great mix of entrepreneurs communicators and creative, unifying a great variety of disciplines, academic and non-academic to cook something up which then can be put into reality as a practical solution to some of the issues, building on “block” at a time like in the famous Lego game. Incorporating bot just individual benefits but public good as well (which is not identical or one being the sum of the individual) will provide new and better options and a new set of probabilities. However just sitting tight will add to the probability of the ugly scenarios. Cheers Dieter

    FROM BILL: More arguments about things I have not said. Sigh. And, Newton’s laws have not been refuted. Einstein merely added that as things approach the speed of light that special relativity must be taken into account. Nearly everything every person uses in daily life is subject to and obeys Newton’s Laws of Motion.

    And, by the way, monopolies are not possible without the help of government power. Everything over the years that has been labeled a monopoly (again, other than those who gained the monopoly through government interference, as with utlities, for instance) has been someone who had huge market share because they were first to market, or who did something so well that no one could complete with them successfully–at first. In every case, other companies evenually DID compete, and did overtake them. IBM was once seen as a monopoly, but two different groups starting companies in their garage overtook them–Microsoft and Apple. Microsoft was seen as a monopoly, but somehow Apple overtook them.

    I don’t think there is any real evidence that the private sector can’t deliver any product or service better than the public sector.

  213. Hi,

    You’ve covered much of the theoretical on this subject and discussed some things which seem to be merely symantics, how do natural disaster such as this Tsunami in Japan, effect the charts and the flow of Currency, ie. Japan will now have a rebuilding program, certain levels of international aid.

    Is it possible that from the many governments and business point of view that such disasters are a good thing in terms of flow of currency. (I’m not being synical or critical or going into the loss of life (I wish the Japanese well))

    How do these large scale one off events come into the calculations? are any big enough to significantly adjust the long term perspectives /game plans that you speak of?

    FROM BILL: People deal with natural disasters in a different way in times of positive and negative social mood. As you might imagine, during times of positive social mood people tend to support and help each other more. In times of negative social mood there is more likely to be looting, rancor, blaming, etc. It often appears that there are more natural disasters during times of negative social mood. I don’t know if anyone has looked into this carefully, but I’d be willing to bet that natural disasters are about the same during both positive and negative social mood. I do remember reading about two different blackouts in New York, one in a time of positive mood and the other in times of negative social mood. During the positive social mood blackout people helped each other. During the negative social mood blackout there was looting and other such behavior.

    I would expect that when mood is already negative that a natural disaster does feel like, “What? This, too, now?” In terms of how this affects the markets, these things generally have a short term effect, but then things go back to the prevailing trend, whatever it is.

  214. Dave H says :

    Bill – just downloaded Robert Prechter’s free e-book The Guide to Understanding Inflation. It’s 90 pages now updated through 2010 – I am excited to get into this this weekend. If inflation is the rise in the general price and goods and services over time, stagflation is high inflation in a time of slow growth and high unemployment and disinflation or deflation is the decrease in the general cost of goods or services it would be fairly easy to track and predict some of the consequences of each but you have opened a whole lot more to think about in your overview of deflation. The leveraging and de-leveraging aspects. Thank you for laying that out – I had a grasp on fractional resreve banking and how securities are created at one time but it was forgotten for teh most part so it was great to get this lesson again. Very timely as I may move into more cash now. Thank you Bill. It is really incredible that our own government could spend us into this mess – the arrogance of these politicains is crazy. I like Naill Ferguson lately if you have heard him on the economy but he feels the collapse of the dollar is imminent if more than 20% of GDP goes to servicing the debt – I beleive we are clsoe to 10% now. But China bought all of PIMCO’s big dump of US Treasuries yesterday though so maybe they know something we don’t??

    On a side note I thought Obama was a dove – I just heard him threaten a no fly zone in Lybia. So Obama bombs Lybia to support an unknown rebel faction while we are still fighting the Taliban who shoot at our men and woman with weapons we gave them when Russia invaded. I guess our leaders learn lessons pretty well. At least we’ll know what the new new Lybian army will be using to shoot at us in 10 years!! It’s insane times but some people think it’s all going to be just OK – thanks for not being one dimensional Bill – so many business and personal growth teachers just focus on the positive and that’s OK if everything just passes you buy and you live somewhere and work somewhere where you truly will be unaffected but this has the set up to affect a lot of people in ways we havent seen in America. What if the 33 million families that use food stamps can’t buy enough food and they live where they can’t just go out and pick an apple. Look at the venom in Wisconsin’s capital and these are middle class people who make great money. Food riots in the UK very soon I predict and maybe in America if we don’t figure the debt out. Democracy spreading in the Middle East? If you like the burca maybe and just can’t wait for the 12th Imam – OK that was a little synical – hope it all works out but to quote the great band the WHO “meet the new boss, same as the old boss” seems the way it’s been over there – and over here I guess. It will be a good year to buy a little bit of land in the country and have a nice garden – Have a great weekend and thanks again!!

    FROM BILL: I am familiar with Niall Ferguson and have read two of his books. He is actually more of a financial historian, you might say. I highly recommend his books.

  215. Dave H says :

    P.S. and start a little internet business that cash flows a few thousand a month!! Thanks for setting up last nights call, I’m going to do it…….

    FROM BILL: Yes, I see lots of such things, and Kevin Thompson’s is the best I’ve seen. And, he is a sincere guy, not some sort of shark like a lot of the people selling courses on how to make money.

  216. Rob says :

    Hi all,

    haha, ok, Im going to wade straight in with the physics stuff. Im a bit rusty. I know its going of on a tangent to the topic of the post, I am a ‘blog hijacker’?

    To Deiter:

    Yes, Bill is absolutely correct on Newtons laws being applied on the moon. (when working out the velocity of a projectile on the moon just apply the gravitational field strength of the moon instead of the earth figure of 9.8 ) Considering the absence of friction due to air resistance would be equally important.

    The beauty of Newtons laws is their mathematical simplicity to model physical actions. Light waves that reach us from the other side of the universe obey these laws, so Physicists know that Newtons laws are much the same everywhere. There simplicity in concept and universal application is where there strength lie.

    Yes, they are no good for describing the effects modelled by relativity, but Newton’s Laws and Relativity are both ‘Classical’ physics, so mathematically they use the same type of formulae. Relativity laws were developed directly from Newtonian physics. They are much the same in mathematical concept.

    Yes, Newtons laws are excellent for describing objects such as planets, but not so good for describing the workings of a hydrogen atom. I think it was a physicist called Neils Bohr who came up with the ‘planetary orbit model’ as a description of electrons whizzing around an atomic nucleus, when the development of quantum physics was in its infancy. Its something that is still woefully taught in schools today as the correct basic model of all atomic behaviour, but it was actually one of the primary steps in development of quantum physics!! The ‘planetary orbit model’ only reasonably describes the behaviour of a single hydrogen atom, and is only accurate in its calculation of the probability of the electron actually being in a specific energy level of the hydrogen nucleus, and not in anyway an accurate physical description of whats going on! Elections don’t orbit!!! If they did they would be accelerating in a circle around an arbitrary fixed point, this would consume energy, eventually losing enough momentum to spiral into the nucleus, a physical impossibility since we have a universe full of matter! They ‘move about’ with quanta of energy, hence the term; ‘quantum’; tiny and available only at specific energies.

    Classical formulae was eventually successfully applied when Quantum Mechanics was first being written. There is a ‘classical’ version of quantum physics, but mathematicians and physicists developed new types of mathematics to more rigorously model these quantum interactions. Ie applying classical physics to quantum interactions is still abit like applying newtons law to the atom. These newer types of mathematics along with the classical version now come under the collective term of ‘Quantum mechanics’

    Ok, I will stop there or I am getting carried away!! I hope thats been of help Dieter. Oh I love a self indulgent waffle hehe

    cheers Rob

    FROM BILL: Thank you, Rob. I just don’t have time to go into details in answering 15 posts a day (believe it or not, I have other work to do). Thankfully there are some other people on this blog who have had a scientific education (and didn’t get their science from books aboujt how “quantum physics proves that you can control the universe with your mind’).

  217. Rob says :

    Hi Bill,

    I think its a great blog, and I say that whether I agree with your views on the contents, or not. It stirs up very colourful points of view.

    Funilly enough, after researching some of your teachings on eastern philosphies, brain entrainment, and meditation, it does fill in in some of the blanks that ‘mainstream’ science has left me with. ( I finished a Physics degree some years ago, hence Im rusty! ) From time to time fundamental questions of nature pop into my head that I cant answer by the conventional scientic method I was taught by. I can only seem to make sense of them by fitting these philosphies to them.

    As an extra note for Dieter, before I did my physics degree I was in the mindset of ‘one physics is better than another physics’. ‘Quantum is cool’, but ‘Newton is stuffy’. I was exactly like this. All modern physics comes from one same source ; Newton. You can include the Greeks, but that is another arguement. Most modern space flight only involves Newtonian calcultions since relativistic effects are so neglible at the speed of present day spacecraft that they consolidate down to newtonian calculations.

    We know your busy Bill, but when is part 3? Your public awaits!

    FROM BILL: Sometime next week. I’ve been busy reading 1500 word posts from people who put words in my mouth and then argue against them, which has robbed me of some of the time I would otherwise have used to finish part 3.

  218. Reply to Rob by Dieter says :

    Dear Rob thanks for the good intentions to help me. Well I think we both know whom your really tried to help (otherwise you would have addressed your note to Santiago too). I did not need your help and did not ask for any but nevertheless I really appreciate your efforts, respectful manners and obvious intellect.
    I learnt Newton’s principles in High school (long time ago) and later at the University I found brilliant professors who were able to teach me the updates made by Einstein and the “new” concepts of Quantum Physics. Gosh did I prefer the simple math of Newton’s models at the time. ; – )
    I never said that Newton was not a genius or to be admired and the foundation for later work (as much as his work had been inspired by his predecessors). You wrote: “Light waves that reach us from the other side of the universe obey these laws“, unfortunately that is exactly the example where Newtons calculations and Euclidean space stop to be accurate and Einstein’s theory of gravity is more consistent and accurate (see below). It is this difference which led to the paradigm shift in the general accepted theory of gravitation. Did that make the highly accurate but approximate calculations based on Newtons equations obsolete – of course not – they are great for engineering purposes, where excellent approximations are all we need. (It feels so silly having to explain all that.) But for the higher scientific standards for UNIVERSAL LAWS and generally accepted principles of conjectures and refutations (See Karl Popper) Newton’s theory (not the calculations for practical purposes) were refuted and updated by Einstein’s Theory. In scientific terms “useful” and “approximately but highly accurate” equations are not accepted as LAWS, they used to be “the universal” laws only in a historical perspective and that bis great. Why so much resistance to progress I ask.
    Newton and Einstein were both geniuses they have and deserve highest respect. Someone like Mr. Harris however, who claims that “Einstein m e r e l y added that as things approach the speed of light that special relativity must be taken into account “ (literal quote) just shows his lack of understanding of scientific work – he got a Nobel prize for this “merely” and was considered as a genius – and rightfully so. Judging Einstein’s contribution with “merely” appears really arrogant and ignorant to me. Thank God that silly dogmatism or egomania did not stop scientific progress. With all due respect, I think as s.o. with a degree in Physics like you could help out Mr. Harris to learn or at least to respect modern science and scientific progress. I never met a physicist who did not appreciate Einstein’s work and his genius as much as Newton’s and acknowledged the progress he made, building on Newton’s and others work. His greatest feat was not the math, the new formulas, it was to design an experiment on a cosmic scale and demonstrating the superior accuracy and consistency of his model. So Rob, trust me, I am not part of the good physics/ bad physics group and I did not make the rules for science either (but neither does Mr. Harris!!!)
    For anybody who is interested here a simple and informal summary of the gravitational issue:
    In Einstein’s theory of general relativity, gravitation is an quality of curved spacetime instead of the force between bodies as stated by Newton. In Einstein’s theory of gravitation which has been adopted as the current state of the art (or science in physics), masses however distort spacetime in their vicinity leading to curved space rather than Euclidean space. Therefore particles move in trajectories determined by the geometry of spacetime. This allows a precise (and not just approximative) description of the motions of light and mass that is consistent with all available observations. In general relativity, the gravitational force is a fictitious force due to the curvature of spacetime, Newtons formulas can still be applied as very good approximations and they are much simpler as math is concerned the error in the limited context can be neglected for practical purposes but as a “law” they have been refuted by Einstein. A useful approximation is not a law (i.e. Newtons laws are historical not actual laws), anyone with some education in “Theory of Science” can know that, again I recommend Karl Popper for some valuable insight about “Conjectures and Refutations” and the problem with inductive proof.

    On a side note another Nobel Prize winner Paul A. Samuelson (in economics) – quite a famous man – was credited to be the “founder”of the “theory of public goods” (there are many others), but of course Mr. Harris knows better again “I don’t think there is any real evidence that the private sector can’t deliver any product or service better than the public sector. “(literal quote) – more lack of information and more egomania…. It seems that not a single Nobel Prize winner is a match for Mr. Harris ; – ))

    Well some study of NLP and modern psychology shows that believe systems prefer to look for evidence to be “right” and resist anything which challenges the believe system – this is a safety issue. Safety of the ego. May be we both “know” someone who teaches that kind of stuff and reveals that he did not integrate that when he (his ego) feels challenged – ups ; – )) That could have been avoided by the man in question – just zipping it for once would have done it here.

    For me the social mood issue is a big one, a major and interesting topic and challenge, that is what has drawn me to the blog, the lack of manners, making things personal and the ego stuff here is a major put off though.

    So, as always I look at the bright side as I met some interesting people and had a good laugh here too but I got tired of the “climate”. Cheers and bye, Dieter

    FROM BILL: You can find economists hanging around everywhere who will advocate the “wisdom” of public control of this, that and everything else. That doesn’t make it true. For Christ’s sake, they gave Paul Krugman the Nobel Prize for economics and he hasn’t a clue about how the economy works.

    I am quite familiar with the history of science, including the contributions of Einstein. Just a day or do ago you were claiming that Einstein has disproven Newton’s Laws, which I called you on, since it is nonsense. Now you’re backpedaling. In your position, I would stop making pronouncements. Luckily refuting what you say has become boring, and this will be the last time.

    By the way, mentioning what “experts” say as proof, especially in areas where there is little agreement, is intellectually lazy (as is setting up straw men, as you so like to do). You are striking me more and more as a blowhard–and a waste of my time. Next you’ll be telling us you have tiger’s blood and Adonis DNA.

  219. Vic says :

    Bill says,”Next you’ll be telling us you have tiger’s blood and Adonis DNA.”

    You say that like it’s a BAD thing. :D

    FROM BILL: It’s what nutjob narcissist Charlie Sheen claims to have.

  220. Rob says :

    Very true Dieter. If the universe has a curved hyperbolic symmetry then Relativity laws are required. If it is flat, then Newtons and Euclidean laws will suffice. As far as I know there is still no absolute proof that the universe is either of these. As far as I can tell, the popular view in the science community changes through the years. Back in the 50’s a very influential physicist called Fred Hoyle proclaimed the universe is flat and infinite, then along comes Hawking in the 60’s and a reaffirms that its curved and finite. Thats where its been ever since. Either way, Newton’s laws still apply to what ever is at the other end of the universe because they are the three most fundamental laws of nature (or so the theory goes haha!). By that I mean that if you stood at the other end of the universe, you could apply Newtons laws there as well, as well as any law we have here. Every other law in physics could change and it would theoretically be ‘ok’, but if one of Newtons three laws is changed then all other physical laws are effected, and reality would be different. Thats why Newtons laws are the bedrock. Personally I think that space is curved, the thought of infinity scares me!!

    Ironically Einstein didn’t win the noblel prize for relativity . He won the Nobel prize for his work on the ‘Photoelectric effect’. Relativity is the stuff he is famous for, but the basic relativity equations were formulated twenty or thirty years previous by a mathematician called Lorentz. The genius of Einstein was that with a little tweaking and incredible intuitive genius, he took these formulae and discovered what they actually meant. Lorentz despite formulating them, didn’t have a clue how they could be applied to the real world. Einstein sought the help of a mathematician called Kurt Godel, and together they formulated what today is know as the ‘Einstein Field equations’ . Many solutions to these field equations are still undiscovered.

    Mathematically there isn’t anything special about Relativity equations. They are much the same in terms of maths as Newtonian formulae. Either can be made as complex or as simple to fit the situation they are being used for. Both use very simple mathematics compared to the stuff that mathematicians use for ‘fun’, since physicists use a simplified version . Physicists tend to see Mathmeticains as sadists who like to write pages of notation to show absolute proofs ( im generalising here) .Haha, Im going off on a waffle again, in no particular direction, so I shall stop there, or I will go on forever

    FROM BILL: Thank you, Rob. I just don’t have the time to refute every person who comes on here speaking as if they know something about this or that. Dieter started out claiming something (I don’t remember anymore what it was) that showed a limited understanding of how cause and effect, including science, works in this universe, so I called him on it.

    He has since come back with several other comments that reveal that he knows just enough to make himself dangerous, including the one about Newton’s Laws having been “disproven” and that Einstein won the Nobel Prize for special relativity. Several other people on this blog have done similar things during this discussion of social mood.

    The fact that people can sound reasonably educated and still say ridiculous things (which you might not spot if they’re talking about something you don’t know a lot about) is one reason why I urge people not to believe things JUST because “experts” say they are true, and not to believe what people say just because they sound as if they might know what they are talking about. There are “experts” who will back up almost any claim.

    I apply this to what I say, too. Don’t believe anything I say on this site just because I say it. I’m just strongly fascinated with what’s going on in the world in a number of areas, and I spend a lot of time reading and researching many subjects in order to find out what I want to know, and because it’s fun. Do your own homework, though. If you aren’t interested enough to spend the time it takes to be informed about certain subjects, then in some ways you are handicapped when these subjects come up–you won’t have the criteria to evaluate what other people are claiming is true or untrue. Nothing wrong with that–we all have a limited amount of time and we each have to decide how to spend it. No one can be informed about everything.

    Though I am totally open to your opinions about what I say (I’m saying this to the general readership, not to Rob in particular), and in fact welcome your comments, please spare me your “I’m certain about this” counter-arguments if you don’t know what you’re talking about and are just emotionally going off because you don’t like what I say for one reason or another. Why say something if you only have a sliver if information because you’ve read one thing about the subject or saw what seemed to be credible program on television? Your attempt to look “smart” in such a case fails anyway.

    I’m certainly not always right, but what I write about here is the result of, in most cases, decades of study and /or personal experience. If you have solid information to refute it, by all means bring it up. If you just don’t like it because it’s “negative” or disagrees with your closely held political views, or you have a thin skin, better to not say anything–or, ask a question instead of speaking as if you have solid evidence when you don’t.

    Also spare me the ad hominen (personal) attacks and the arguments (usually highly emotional) about what you THINK I said, but didn’t say (“straw man” attacks). Both of these are intellectually lazy. Rational people spot these logical errors immediately.

    I’m not always right, and never claimed to be. I’m just trying to figure things out, and I’m sharing my thoughts with you. In my life I’ve been wrong more often than I’ve been right, if I look back (though I’m a bit wiser today than in the past). However, I’ve learned not to spout off unless I have a reasonable amount of information backing up what I say, and to change my mind when new information refutes what I thought was true.

    I’ve shared this information about the state of the world, despite the fact that some people warned me that it would be “bad for business.” I’ve shared it because I care about the people who use Holosync and read this blog, and I think it’s important that more people know what’s happening. Hopefully, this discussion is motivating some of you to seek out sources of information beyind what you’ve been using and to become more prepared in other ways. Those of you who think I’m full of it, of course, should not prepare, nor should you seek out more information, lest you confuse yourself.

    And, quite frankly, anyone who is benefitting from Holosync–which I think is crucial in such stressful times–but quits (or doesn’t start) because they don’t like what I’m saying, or because I put people in their place who attack me without knowing what they’re talking about, is just hurting him or herself.

  221. Jem says :

    Well Bill, its good to actually hear what you really think, Lol.

    TO Christopher “I did not kill the Buffaloes”. I’m afraid its not that simple, in effect you did….Let me explain. I will use Bills teachings for this anology because I asume your aware of them. When did Christopher start was it in the gleam of his farthers eye, or indeed his granfarthers or indeed etc, etc. When does Christopher stop, is it with his children or his childrens children, etc, etc.

    In a sense it could be said that once the information you are carrying dies, possiable you die with it. Unfortunatly its not that simple either genes, cause & effect & all that old boy. However thats neither here nore there for the moment.. I am hearing so strongly on this blog western education (Freud included) being sold as if it was the truth, I ask you is it, really?????

    Unfortunatly you & me & everyone else did contribute to the death of the buffalo as we are doing right now as I write these words something is going extinct because of the system of thought we supposedly agree with. I Don’t. My thesis at university was about how economics or more to the point the philosophy of economics is extremly detrimental to our survival as a species, & if we carry on the only end is destruction. Nature is cyclical & that is why it continues to be succesful, humans unfortunatly have been following a very linear path & it can only last for so long, unless we adapt & change.

    So in a sence I agree with what is being said, however there are many flaws in what is being said…please don’t let me get started on physics….ok you got me. Pyysics is not my thing really so I only offer my opion here (although before you come down on me Bill with trumpetes (mabe saxophone :-)) & hell choir). I have to agree with deitree, science states & that is its first fundamental law that it is open to new information, thats why science works as a field of investigation. If it gets stuck in concepts & ideas (pretty much like humans), its ceases to be v
    alid.

    Newtons laws are extremly valid, however if you follow new physics, as opposed to orthodox (again im not a proffesor here) you should understand that we are working within the bounds of human knowledge & that is aceptable to change. We work with what helps us understand our environment, with the best kowledge we have at the time. Science changes like everything else. Newtons laws are good untill you go deeper into the atom. Anyone who stands up & says this is correct & that is wrong sends alarm bells ringing amongst any serious scientist. I digress & to be honest that wasn’t your thing Chriss was it. Doh!!!

    Anyway’s back on the ranch!!! If we continue as we are going, socionomics or not , we will cease to become effective as a species & the cosequenses will be a huge learning curve, or not. However I for one Bill your going love this agree with the Aquarian age, not just cause I like the idea, but we have just come out of the Picean age, (Astrologicaly) the age of the interlect (ocult) & are now in the age of Aquarious., duality or indeed the coming of two halves, our left & right brain, harmonisation.

    Anyways Chriss, I am not attacking you there seems to be to much of my thought is correct & your’s is wrong on this blog at the moment & I confess I am not perfect :-) . Just needed to say my thing.

    FROM BILL: Here come the trumpets.

    Jem, please. 98% of what you have heard about quantum physics is baloney. New Agers have used quantum physics to try to prove certain magical ideas. No real quantum physicists believe in all that magical thinking bullshit.

    And then, after evoking “serious scientists” you offer astrology as a legitimate way to decide whether or not we’re entering into an “age of Aquarius”? C’mon.

    Newton’s Laws will never be overturned. They have been proven up one side and down the other. See Rob’s posts about this. Yes, the world behaves in a different way at the quantum level. Things still, however, behave in a Newtonian way at the level we’re all at. Very little of the scientific information that has come to light over the last century will be invalidated, ever.

    Scientific knowledge will be expanded, certainly. Occassionally an explanation for why something happens will be found to be partial or perhaps even wrong. Some things no one ever imagined will be discovered (nanotechnology is a somewhat recent example–though everything in the nano world obeys laws scientists already knew about and operated under). The basic laws of the universe as formulated by the scientific community will not be invalidated.

    The basic elements in the periodic table will always exist, they will continue to have the same number of electrons, protons, and neutrons, the same atomic weight, they will combine with other elements in the same ways, the basic forces of the universe will remain the same and operate in the same way, biochemical processes will happen in the same way, etc., etc., etc.

    The only people I ever hear say such things are people who don’t have much of a scientific education, or are attached to their favorite magical thinking explanations and therefore say, “Well, science doesn’t know EVERYTHING.” That’s true. Science doesn’t know everything, but what they do know, they know.

    One reason (I’ve said this before on this blog) that scientifically uneducated people think that basic laws of science will someday be invalidated is that much of what humans thought up until the renaissance about how the universe works WAS invalidated by Age of Reason scientific investigations that began about that time. This previous view of the universe was invalidated because it was based on magical thinking from the church. Once the age of science began, we entered into a whole new realm, where proof and investigation were required, and where mathematics was used to nail things down in a way that wasn’t possible previously.

    Finally, you’ve misunderstood something I have said in other writings: the “gleam in my father’s eye” reference you cite to claim that Christopher is somehow reponsible for the killing of the buffaloes that used to fill the plains in the US. When I used the example you are reffering to I was discussing the fact that people often blame the way they are and how they behave on the way they were treated by their parents. But their parents treated them that way, it’s often argued, because of how their parents treated them, and that came from THEIR parents–and you can keep going back in this manner to the beginning of time.

    Under this type of reasoning, no one is responsible for anything because whatever they do is the result of what was done to them, which was the result of something else, back into time, ad infinitum.

    In fact, I was making the exact OPPOSITE point you are trying to make. People are responsible for what they do, now. Yes, people are responding to and acting from things that have influenced them, but if we use that to push reponsibility for what we do today onto someone else, then no one is responsible for anything. That’s all irresponsible people need–a good excuse for doing whatever the hell they want.

    You are taking what I was arguing against–putting off responsibilty onto the past, and turned it upside down, so that somehow people in the future are responsible for what other people did in the past, before they were even born.

    Christopher is NOT (nor is anyone else who is alive today) responsible for what his ancestors might have done. Yes, someone did kill most of the buffalo in the US during the 1800s. Yes, this wasn’t a particularly good thing. Someone, for short term gain, did something with long-term (and short-term) negative consequences. Those who did it, then, are responsible. How could someone alive today be responsible for something he or she didn’t do and which happened before he or she existed?

    There are people today who have such a victim mentality that they want me to be responsible for slavery, for the killing of Native Americans, for killing the buffalo, for Christopher Columbus unknowingly bringing certain viruses with him across the ocean, and God knows what else. I’m willing to be responsible for what I actually do–in fact, I can hardly keep up with it–but I’m not willing to be responsible for things I didn’t do, and which happened before I was born. Thinking otherwise seems kind of nuts to me.

    Humans are capable of all kinds of stupid, careless, and heartless actions. I suspect they always will be, though it does seem as if such acts are somewhat mitigated as people move through the various developmental stages (see my posts at the beginnning of this blog where I describe these developmental stages in detail). Let’s just be responsible for our own actions, and stop trying to make people guilty for things they had nothing to do with. If you feel guilty about the killing of the buffalo, see a psychologist. You had nothing to do with it, either.

    If you want to feel bad about things that happened in the past, that’s another matter. History is full of unfortunate events where many people (or other species) suffered. I can feel bad about these things, too, when I consider them (though I’m less interested in feeling bad than in possibly doing something to prevent such things from happening now or in the future). I can tell the difference, though, between feeling bad for something that happened and feeling responsible for it when I wasn’t involved. Hopefully you can, too.

  222. Rob says :

    Yes getting into tit for tat on the internet is a futile activity. It just goes around in circles. Going to Hell in a hand basket bad for business, maybe? But the people you could lose could be be replaced by people you have attracted to Centerpointe by expressing your out spoken views.( perhaps its only controversial to anyone who is offended by what you say?)

    The way I see it is that everyone is going to express themselves whether anyone else likes it or not. Its not realistic to agree with all the things everyone says, so to me its seems more credible to let a lot of it go. Perhaps its laziness on my part not to get drawn into tit for tat situations? I don’t like confrontational situations, but then again, having done holosync for two months has open my eyes up to llok at this diffently.

    Yes, the problem I find with blogs, texting, chartrooms etc is that so much emotion can be expressed through the written word, and can be interpreted in a different emotional way by the person reading it. From my experience I find it is very easy not to step back and notice that I am reacting to my own emotional response and not to what the person has written, even though I will react to what has been said. I find it hard to tell what emotion is said behind the word, so in the end I just decided not to react it. Off course when I can see the person speaking in front off me its so much easier to judge the emotional tone, I guess through body language and tone of voice. I like to call it ‘verbal jousting’.

    FROM BILL: Well, you either came to Holosync already quite aware, or Holosync is wroking very quickly!

  223. Lynn says :

    this post, triggers and awareness
    one could shift focus to this instead.
    I am saying this as someone who has big triggers myself, though not to this post.
    I am sure there are some who read this post who did not believe what Bill was saying but also were not triggered, nor were their opinions of Bill changed as a result of his beliefs on this. .
    Big triggers, as this has been for some, come from our beliefs.
    This could be beliefs about the world, ourselves, Bill Harris, any combo of these and then some………..look at the beliefs that are causing these triggers. these feelings, beliefs that bring up fear, anger, need to be ‘right’, etc. ………….what is this really shaking up??!! why SO much resistance?? … really interesting stuff there!
    then see how you do it……

  224. Jagdeep says :

    Hi Bill,
    Elliotwaves and socionomics are, in my openion very true, in the sense that the out side menifestation is a reflection of the human mood. If it is of hope, things go up (in refrence to share markets/economy), if of despair, things move down.

    But then to find future patterns from past patterns is a risky business again. True, at the present human evolutionery conciousness, the patterns may not divert too far off from the past trends, but then this is a huge presumption.

    Also, as per the latest quntam machnics theory, the reality exists in all possible wave functions and which reality we witness depends on the vibrational level of our individual conciousness.

    This to me implies that we are not 7 billion peopel living in one universe, but under limitless dimentions each individual travels through and witnesses his or her individual universe based on individual conciousness levels.

    So the theory that there are going to be dark times is as valid as there are going to be bright times–which times each individual will pass through will depend on his or her individual beliefs.

    I belive we are responsibel for only our own choices and actions and the quantam wave function allows this individual freedom.

    So the debate of what the future holds is individual rather than collective, though the individual will be clustred in the collective that resonates with its individual vibrational level.

    FROM BILL: I’m afraid there is some magical thinking mixed into your interpretation. It’s certainly true that your attitude and your thinking forms the kind of world you see–in other words, the world you see is filtered through your beliefs, your values, the way you represent the world to yourself internally, and even through the kind of sensory equipment we humans have.

    However, there are many things about your experience of the world that are not dependent upon your internal filters. No matter how you filter it, a gunshot to the heart will likely kill you. Gravity will hold you to the earth no matter what your attitude or your beliefs. If you have no job and no way to get any money, you may not get enough to eat or have adequate clothing or shelter.

    These are facts independent of the mental world you create. Yes, you create your emotional and attitudinal RESPONSE to those things, and you also create how you behave in response to those things, but your attitude and the way you create your internal world does not create EVERYTHING. There are two layers of experience: the factual, “rocks-are-hard” world, which is the same for everyone, and the interpretation of the world you are describing.

    Thinking that your mind creates your entire experience, and that there isn’t a physical reality to be dealt with regardless of your interpretations of it, is a form of magical thinking–ie, thinking that doesn’t conform to the observable laws of the universe. You cannot control EVERYTHING with your mind. Those who mistakenly use magical thinking are at a decided disadvantage, because magical thinking does not accurately describe the world you’re trying to navigate. And, sometimes that world can be dangerous. Not seeing it accurately could be a big problem in some cases.

    So, if you look out at the world, and you see that there is more pessimism and more conflict, if you see that there are economic problems, unemployment, and so forth (and many other the other things I have been pointing out), you have a choice as to how you feel about it, or how you behave in response to it, or what you think it means, but those things happening out there are facts, and they affect people regardless of whatever their attitude about them happens to be. And, if certainly things are unfolding and you don’t do something to prepare yourself, then you have no one to blame but yourself if one day you find yourself up the creek without a paddle.

    And, if you think these patterns will not repeat, and there’s nothing to be concerned about, then sit there and don’t do anything. If what I’m describing doesn’t happen, you can say, “I told you do.”

    On the other hand, if they do come to pass, and you aren’t prepared, you might not be around to hear whatever I might say.

  225. Sam says :

    FROM BILL: It’s what nutjob narcissist Charlie Sheen claims to have.

    Uh, winning! DUH.

  226. It’s a full-time job to maintain civility on a blog or an open forum.

    I read somewhere once that the internet is the written equivalent of giving someone the finger when you’re driving. You’d never do it in person because you know you might get punched in the face if you acted that way. People feel (physically) safe and anonymous on the internet, so many of them give others the metaphorical finger when they don’t agree with them. That’s why there are so many ad hominem attacks.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: And, because when a person has no other argument, attacking the other person convinces some weak-minded people that that person under attack might be wrong.

  227. carmen says :

    Bill, I must thank you for your thoughts and wisdom, and not only for the holosync progra

    actually, I’ve taken your advice and have just read this article “The financial/economic dichotomy in social behavioral dynamics” from Robert R.Prechter Jr. and Wayne D.Parker

    Although I’d have to have high studies of Sychiatry, Economics, Mathematics and Sociology in order to understand this article perfectly (which I do not have), there is a general idea about herding and economical versus financial behaviour which I tend to agree.

    And yet, the authors’ opinion or scientific based predictions….,well maybe all the universe and we humans are not so predictable, since we are alive beings and have the possibility of getting more and more aware of our own dangerous behaviours

    By the way, holosync does help with awareness, I’d say so

  228. Santiago says :

    About the Holosync issue. I certainly don’t agree with a lot of what Bill says, but I definitively recommend holosync to anyone interested in growth.

  229. Rob says :

    Bill,

    yes, Holosync for me is working very quickly. I feel like I can hardly keep up with the changes sometimes! I noticed changes in my behaviour after listening to the demo for a few days, so I signed up for AP. At first I wasn’t sure if I was just convincing myself that these changes were genuine. I quickly reasoned that I knew Holosync must be working as I had similar experiences when when I dabbled with unaided mediation about 10 years ago. The difference this time is that Holosync seems to be helping me produce vastly deeper changes in my behaviour, at a quicker pace. When I first did meditation I had fairly quick results from it as well, but I didn’t know what I was doing or that it would produce some unsettling side effects, so I stopped!.

    I have alot of skeleton’s to clear out of my closet, so I think the Holosync dinging around in my head will be very busy in the foreseable future!!!

    FROM BILL: And, you ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Holosync, and what it does for you, becomes increasingly more profound the more deeply into it you go. What you’re seeing now, as good as it is, is just skimming the surface.

  230. Kory says :

    I agree with Santiago. Holosync has proven to be a valuable tool for me and continues to be so. I would highly recommend HS to others and have done so. The support team have been excellent with every inquiry I have thrown at them. I would like to say “Thank you Bill” for this valuable contribution on behalf of myself, my friends & family who have joined the program.
    Bravo Bill!

  231. Bruce says :

    There surely appears to be a plethora of “Pied Pipers” who are at large in our global society; even in during this potentially and increasingly enlightened era humanity is moving through.

    These are very droll self serving negative observations to the maximum and are simply old news in the ways of the known world.

    For a person who states clearly that it is not within their intentions to be negative Bill you have certainly done a reasonably good job of disguising any positive points of view towards human evolution that you might also hold.

    You may state that you are simply the messenger delivering what you have observed as a measure of safety for the rest of us; but where is the benefit?

    No-thing is unaffected by the observation of it.

    Are you and your fellow negative social mood observers simply caught up in your own beliefs about what you think that you are objectively observing and or predicting; aka your egos?

    Who exactly are you in this mix?

    The universe by its clear design can only evolve and sustain that which is a benefit unto itself and we can observe that every-thing else passes.

    Even Bucky Fuller paved his “Critical Path” with positive solutions.

    Is “Holosync” the Ring Tone path to Nirvana?

    Can it survive all else becoming the sustaining waters of our world?

    I like what James Allen said in his little book long ago:

    “As a man thinketh in his heart so is he.”

    Gay Hendricks what ever are you doing down here in this “Mud Bath” of the minds?

    FROM BILL: And what exactly would the benefit to my “ego” be to alerting you to a repeating pattern in history? What possible benefit would there be to me to tell you about this, other than caring about your welfare?

    Yes, “as a man thinketh”. However, this applies to how you feel, how you behave, which people and situations you attract or become attracted to, and what meanings you assign to what happens. It does not apply to material facts. Material facts are not changed by your thinking, unless that thinking is accompanied by action, and unless you have the ability to alter the physical reality throught that action–which, sometimes, you don’t.

    There is nothing you can do to alter the fact–for instance, just to pick one example–that during the recent extraordinary era of the most extremely positive social mood in recorded history (which ended about 2000), people, countries, and corporations have already spent tomorrow’s money–ie, they have spent borrowed money based on the idea that it could somehow be paid back later.

    This, unfortunately, has become unsustainable. When a family goes into debt in order to buy things before they’ve actually earned the necessary money, that debt is temporarily sustainable, but until the interest payments become so large that the family cannot pay them and still buy food, shelter, etc. At that point bankruptcy happens.

    In the case of the collective debts of the world, bankruptcy is here. You might not be aware of the evidence, but that doesn’t change the facts. This world-wide bankruptcy was caused by the thinking of human beings (as you so astutely suggested). These people (all of us) were so supremely confident during recent times of positive social mood that we thought we could keep spending tomorrow’s money forever.

    That money having been spent, there is no way to forestall the consequences, any more than you could spend your entire paycheck with two week to go before the next one without two weeks of no money. The only solution when one has spent tomorrow’s money, and tomorrow arrives, is to live on a lot less until the money is repaid.

    Either the borrower pays it back, thereby living on less, or the borrower stops paying, in which case the lender lives on less. In this case, most people and most entities fall into both categories. Any way you slice it, the world will have to live at a lower standard of living for some time.

    Pointing out this rather obvious fact isn’t negative, it’s just an observation of objective reality. And no amount of positive thinking will change this reality. The idea that the observer changes what is observed applies to the quantum level of reality (however not in a way New Agers claim), and it applies to your EXPERIENCE of actual physical reality. On the relative level in which we’re all living, however, the observer doesn’t affect physical reality UNLESS he or she takes some sort of action to change it. Such actions are indeed preceded by thought, but the thought alone doesn’t change anything in the physical world.

    Even when actions are taken, past actions have consequences and may get in the way. Often those consequences, once set in motion, are extremely difficult–often impossible–to change. In this case, many of the consequences set in motion are all but inevitable. And, in fact, those who are in charge are busily doing the very things that will make these consequences worse.

    Positive thinking can certainly come up with the best possible way to deal with this reality, and I’m totally for such “what’s the most effective thing to do” kind of thinking, but actions have consequences, and the financial consequences of the past several decades cannot be sidestepped by any sort of attitude adjustment, any more than positive thinking could have prevented the Japanese earthquake or kept a car that has careened off a cliff from eventually hitting bottom. Physical realities have consequences.

    This is just one of several examples I could give.

    You unfairly put intentions into my mouth, however. I have not advocated being negative about this current (and coming situation). I have advocated being realistic, being prepared. Being prepared, in my opinion, includes an awareness that social mood is going negative, and will quite likely become more negative if the patterns of the past repeat (which I’m betting they will). I am not saying, and have not said, that you, or anyone else reading this, ought to be negative.

    Only if you are aware of something can you step out of it. If you are unaware of the phenomenon of social mood and how it operates, you will be caught in it, without even knowing that you’re caught. In fact, since you have disowned negativity, you will likely be more negative than other people (as your post indicates, since it calls me names, impunes my honesty, and is generally cranky), though you will think it’s everyone else who is negative. That’s how shadows work.

    By being aware of social mood, a person will be less likely to be caught up in it. That sounds positive to me. Being prepared in other ways seems positive, too. Appreciating your loved ones, and appreciating all those “best things in live are free” sorts of things also seems positive to me, as does doing whatever you can to alleviate the suffering of others. These are some of the positive steps I have advocated, and which you would have seen if you bothered to read the conversations following these posts.

    So I guess you come off looking considerably more “negative” that me, since you are so negative about what you imagine is my negativity, but which is really my caring and compassion for those who read this blog.

    Finally, it’s your own imagination that my bringing up this topic is somehow self-serving. Do you really think I have something to gain by bringing up such a controversial and unpleasant subject? What exactly would that be?

  232. Ed Clark says :

    Bill
    What do you believe the “entire going on of it all” actually is. Is there anything spiritual in all of this or just a figment of our imagination. Do you believe there is something larger at work here? Not a being or something magical but something transcendent.

    FROM BILL: I guess that depends on what you mean by “spiritual.” If you mean a being who runs it all, that’s not what I think is happening.

    The “transcendent” is that which transcends the mind, and the world we perceive through the mind. We usually look at the world through the filter of our ideas, concepts, beliefs, internal representations, etc.–what I have often referred to as our Map of Reality.

    Alfred Korzybski, the creator of a branch of learning called general semantics said, in a very famous book (written in the 1920s), Science and Sanity: “The map is not the territory.” He was referring to the fact that your Map of Reality is a representation of reality, not THE reality. Reality, with a capital R, is whatever is there when the mind and its mapping is out of the way.

    This is why some people meditate for decades–they’re hoping they will experience this. In Zen there is a certain trip they try to take you through that is designed to get the mind to drop (unfortunately, very few of those teaching it have ever had the experience, either, it turns out).

    At any rate, when the CONTENTS of consciousness, that Map, temprarily turns off, all that’s let is pure awareness, with no content. At this point you have transcended the mind–and its mapping function. This is an amazing state which is difficult to describe (one good description is that given throughout a quite remarkable book: I Am That, Conversations with Nisargadatta Maharaj).

    This is that state of “oneness” people talk about. Since everything is actually connected to everything else, all perceived divisions are actually created by the mind. Get the mind out of the way and this interconnected oneness not only becomes obvious, you also realize that you are this whole going on of it all–not the ego-in-a-bag-of-skin you call Ed, but since there’s only one huge thing, THAT (everything) is who you are. This of course, loses much in the telling, just as it does when trying to describe skydiving, or sex, or anything else, to someone who hasn’t done it.

    In most spiritual traditions, this state of oneness is he epitome. However, in some traditions they add that this state doesn’t save you from all the problems of a physical body–all of which are aspects of cause and effect and impermanence. So there are further stages where one integrates the transcendent with the relative. See my posts on this blog The Five Stages of Waking Up and There You Are, Enlightened. I also discuss it in several other places.

  233. A few excerpts from my first post on part2, made 9 days before the Japan crisis … Yet there are those on this blog that would call me and my words BS … Bill had the answer for those reactions from those types of people … Think what you will … I have studied this intensely for 12 years … I am not surprised in the least at the coming of this event in Japan at THIS POINT in time … I expected it … Or something similar … Perhaps the fuel that will drive wave 3 of C into full manifestation …

    EXCERPT 1
    “Along with unnatural, created disasters, like this financial one, and terrorism, for instance, across time we have encountered natural disasters such as the ones on the rise everywhere in the form of earthquakes, tsunami’s, viruses, droughts etc. These contribute significantly to the demise of societies that were deemed and believed to be thought indestructible, for whatever fallacy, false notion or reasoning. Usually a lack of humility. We think we are in control, but we are not. Right now, we are in the midst of the early stages of a breaking down of society as we know it because it has become too complex to maintain as it is. ”

    EXCERPT 2
    “Many other global indices all paint similar pictures. Albeit their position in time and the resulting outcomes vary, in time and proportion. Right now the DJIA looks ok, but it is actually a false representation of the truth. In Elliott theory you would learn that its current run upward is MEANT to fool you. It will suck in every last willing soul that wants to believe and then implode. It’s getting very close. The time is nigh. It’s a wave 2, cunning in its nature, and meant to elude you by false presentations from the media, the institutional world, our government etc.”

    EXCERPT 3
    “So many issues. It’s deep. But it will be brutal. Make no mistake. And in this particular setting and scene with THIS wave count, it will probably come like a snare in the night. Suddenly. It will be drastic. If the wave count is what we think it is, there is no good ending. The next 5 years will be down, hard, straight into depression. There will be massive suffering.”

    I say to each of you, peace … JEM, I did not kill the buffaloes … I appreciate your words and your soul … I agree, and have stated in every way I can that I KNOW, we are in trouble as a species and need change … But we will not change it ourselves … Nature will … THAT, is what is happening now …

    Caveman Christopher –

  234. I will add, that this is the type of situation that would lend itself to pestilence … To a long overdue pandemic … Time will tell …

    My heart is out to the Japanese people … I have a great respect for these people and their culture … Let’s all pray that they might find their footing as soon as possible in this tragedy …

    Caveman out …

  235. Darren says :

    Hi Bill,

    What would your recommendations be for someone who wants to “thrive”, not just “survive” in upcoming difficult times.

    Thanks,
    Darren

    FROM See Part 3 when I post it.

  236. carmen says :

    I agree with you Bill, although I find your latest post more defensive than necessary, as if your sense of humor -which I intuitively perceive- had gone behind your ego…., so maybe you could not accept another joke -if times are so hard…..,you’ll sell more and more holosync….-; never mind, please!!!
    For me it is quite obvious that awareness is better than unconsciousness in any case; my favourite example is that of me having got cancer and the doctor telling me the truth…., yet lately I try to be flexible even about this, specially when I look at my parents who are in their 80s having a quite good old-age life; would I be able to tell them about terrible news, for example inside our family?; I must say that nowadays I cannot be so sure as I was at my 20s, about this topic …. or any other one

    either for soft or hard times, holosync is a good option, anyway

    and again, please keep your sense of humor as the last part of you to lose or give away….honestly I’d rather prefer to lose my holosync Cds

  237. Vic says :

    Bill says, “Do you really think I have something to gain by bringing up such a controversial and unpleasant subject? What exactly would that be?”

    You could be getting kickbacks from Prechter. Not suggesting that you are- just sayin’. ;)

    FROM BILL: If only I was. I only brought up Socionomics because I think it gives an overview of what is happening that explains a lot and allows one to step back from what it happening and not become lost in the negative mood.

  238. Me says :

    Bill,

    Kudos to you for telling it like it is. A lot of people just don’t have the balls. Their financial house of cards is tied up in it. Or what they’d like to believe about themselves. Or the drama they are so invested in.

    Holosync cuts you to the bone. No getting around the honesty. That’s how I know Bill is being straight with us here — anyone who uses holosync for any substantial length of time can’t help but become honest with themselves… and therefore, by extension, to others.

  239. Bruce says :

    Well I guess you certainly set me straight Bill.

    It is unfortunate that that you took such offense to my very short opinion on the suggestion that you and your socionomic associates may have somewhat oversized egos in accessing what you observe and or imagine about the direction our global society appears to be going.

    Who exactly would be right if you are wrong anyway?

    Now correct me if I am wrong but you do sell the “Holosync System” as a personal “Solution” to what ever ails you; since I do recall paying your organization Centerpointe over $3000 for a lifetime supply of “Ringtones.”

    It may, however, be an assumption of my own that you do this for a profit along with a measure of good will thrown into the mix.

    Poor people do not own private airplanes.

    Just kidding so don’t be offended.

    In truth the vote is not in yet on that one since I have only been using “Holosync” for a mere two years and unlike you have not yet mastered sitting on the summit of all human knowledge and understanding as a resulting benefit.

    If humans have created an impending global financial collapse then it will be humans that will once again rebuild and renew the system as it’s needed if we so choose.

    We humans had to have created the financial wealth and well being along with the global structure to begin with as such wealth is only the perception and then manifestation of the minds imagination to start with.

    Nothing new under the sun here.

    Since you are the master of understanding the impermanence of all forms, including us human forms, here in the known universe then I also know that you are clear about the fact that we have indeed made up this entire episode of global prosperity followed by doom, gloom and devastation as well.

    It was all musical chairs to begin with as there never was any-THING there in the first place.

    I simply don’t get all of the feigned alarm bells coming from the man who says he is fine with the fact that this life we have dreamed up is NOT PERMANENT in any-way.

    With the impermanence of all form then it is simply a matter of time before it all changes form or in other words disappears to our vision anyway.

    So what’s the worry?

    Have an ice cream cone and then go drill some holes in the sky with your little airplane.

    Maybe you will find a way out like the author Richard Bach did.

    You’re a very bright guy Bill but if you don’t have a big ego then nobody does.

    FROM BILL: Bruce, you are a sad little man. So sorry you are having trouble separating your own issues from what I am saying. Any dumbo can set up straw men, call names, and make smarmy insults using the anonymity of the internet. Do other successful men intimidate you?

    If you paid over $3000, you paid too much, as the entire program, spread over 10+ years, doesn’t cost anywhere near that much. I’ll bet, by the way, that you can’t find a single person who has completed the program who doesn’t say that it was the most beneficial thing they ever did for themselves.

  240. Rob says :

    haha, did Bill mention a blog a few posts up the page about Quantum physics and the use of it by magical thinkers. I have noticed a lot of law of attraction stuff misquoting science.

    This can be extended to applying law of attraction as featured in The Secret. I saw this film and thoroughly enjoyed it, and regarded it as very uplifting. What made me cringe though was the touting by some of The Secret Experts (although not you Bill!) that merely focusing very positively could manifest bicycles and elephants. Haha, yes im sure they do this all the time!

    They may have got this idea from the following. Im rusty, but I think I have the facts straight! There is a phenomenon in Quantum Physics called ‘Virtual Particles’. The idea is that subatomic particles can spontaneously create and then destroy. To conserve the balance of energy and charge in the Universe, an anti particle which has equal, but opposite energy and charge is created arbitrarily somewhere else in the universe. Anti energy is a strange concept, but valid, as its a quasi state which allows the forbidden classical physics notion of the creation and destruction of energy, so its it doesn’t break any physical laws! I guess its good to look at this process a bit like how an accountant would look at finances on a ledger sheet. This process on such short time scales (a billionth of a second I think) that they do not have much bearing or influence on our dimensional scale. The idea came from an experiment called the ‘Casimir Effect’.

    So with this in mind, I can see where they got the spontaneously manifesting trikes from!

    Quantum physics is highly abstract, and can only be expressed with any purpose, in terms mathematics. Describing it with physical images only really skirts the subject.

    I wrote abit why I think Special relaitvty could be more applicable to attain any shred of tangibility to what the secret was on about. But it was abit long winded, so I cut it. If anyone’s interested I will post it.

  241. David says :

    treatment for cheerfulness: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jd4tugPM83c why have holosync when you can cure yourself and get depressed? talk about social mood! LOL

    FROM BILL: I recommend that everyone watch this short video. A serious treatment for a serious problem.

  242. michelle s says :

    To everyone who is getting way too long winded and off topic-please .

    If you agree, great- if you don’t great. Either way we will see what happens- if we ‘see’ it and are prepared wouldn’t it be better than lamenting why it’s wrong to put it out there in the first place. I am not an expert in many of the fields that people are speaking of- but I can tell bullshit and fear from a mile away.

    Do whatever you want to do, prepare, don’t prepare- but I wouldn’t want to totally rely on ‘everything is going to be fine’ that is spouted off.

    My 2cents-which is currently worth about 2 cents more or less-
    waiting for part 3

  243. Bristow says :

    I have read Parts 1 and 2 of ” Going to Hell in a Handbasket ” along with the posts, especially Christopher’s, as well as your answers Bill and I must say, you got me thinking, Bill.

    I have been asking myself how compassionate, considerate, generous I will be when I find myself in the midst of all this human suffering, the starvation, the despair that will affect the great majority. When my own stomach is screaming to be fed, when looking at my own husband’s weaken condition is tearing at my heart, will I be willing to share my food with my neighbours, my friends? Will my vegetable garden be sufficient? For how long and how many people? Do I have any thing left to keep in my freezer to sustain us through the long winter? Will there be any electricity available to run it? Will the garden be raided under the cover of darkness? What is my level of compassion?

    Food will run out but surely so will the basic necessities like soap, toilet rolls, toothpaste etc., and will become luxury items. How compassionate can I be towards myself, my own husband when foul smelling body odours and bad breath are impossible to ignore? I am reminded of how “invisible ” the homeless people have become to so many of us. And when our clothes have become rags since no more shipments of same are coming from China and other countries, we will then be a mirror of these very same street people. Even if I can sew, will there be any fabric available? For how long, and for how many people? How will I pay for it, should I find any? Where is my compassion?

    What about razors, hair dyes, make-up, all the things that we use as we put so much importance on physical appearance now? Do I still feel the same towards my family and friends as I see them unshaved (face or legs), pale and haggard looking without our little beauty aids? How do they feel towards me? Am I still compassionate, hungry, unwashed, haggard-looking?

    During WWII cigarettes and tobacco were worth more than money on the black market in many countries. What will it be this time, coffee? I have never bartered in my life, how does one go about it? Do I ask for a “fair price”? Am I being fair and generous as I learn to “exchange”?

    I don’t know anyone who has lived through a war except from the survivors who have written of their experiences in the books I have read. Some who did survive and wrote their testimonials chose suicide rather than live with what they had witnessed of humanity like Primo Levi and Jerzy Kosinski, to name but two. How many others chose that path is impossible to tell. And I do understand Christopher’s warning of the vulnerability of women. In “A Woman In Berlin” by Anonymous, Copyright 2000, the author describes in her diaries how Russian soldiers enacted their revenge over the invasion of their country by gang raping the wives, sisters, mothers and daughters of the German soldiers and how the German men, in turn treated these women upon their return home. My husband has his 4th Dan in Tae Kwon Do and is very much aware that he could last only so long if forced to fight off more than two aggressors at a time, providing no weapon is involved. I have no doubt that I do indeed need his protection and even then…

    I don’t know that another world war is coming as I have made some analogies to WWII here. But from what I have read in this blog, Christopher’s posts and Bill’s answers to many posts, I am more aware than ever that my behaviour and conduct in the midst of it all is what is paramount to my surviving during these “troubled” times but just as important, “afterward”, if and should I live to see it. Am I aware? Yes, as much as one can be in the abstract, for such a world is an abstraction to me. Am I prepared? That remains to be seen.

    I don’t think I could be so calm an observer right now had it not been for Holosync. And it is with great chagrin that I realise that after only 2 years of the most intense and gratifying experience in meditation that Holosync has brought me and my husband, we most likely will not be in a position to do the whole program in view of what is to come. Nevertheless, I urge everybody to keep on with it and go as far as you can. Holosync is truly remarkable.

    FROM BILL: No one knows exactly what will happen, or how bad (or not bad) things could get. We have all become a bit spoiled in our comfortable existence since the end of WW2. Now we may find out what it’s like to not be so comfortable. The more aware a person is, the more prepared they will be emotionally. And, of course, it’s not a bad idea to prepare in other ways. Just in case.

  244. Kory says :

    ahh….can I take back some of what I said up there? The ‘Bravo’ part at the very least.

  245. james says :

    While you are forcasting the future with elliott theory Bill you should read ‘Tunnel Thru the Air’ by w.d.Gann.
    It was written in the 1920s and gives a detailed description of the bombing of Pearl Harbour and forcast the 1929 crash to the exact day.
    People today are still using what is left of his work to predict the exact price and time of financial market highs and lows.
    You can’t predict the future, it’s been proven again and again. You can always be wrong.

    FROM BILL: I am aware of Gann. He was one of the experts Napoleon Hill used in creating his work.

    Luckily, despite what several people are saying, I’m not trying to predict the future. I’m trying to point out a repeating pattern and the kinds of things that happen at certain stages of that pattern.

  246. Chris says :

    Bill,

    Where can one get clear commentary and (as much as possible) non-biased interpretation of world events on the internet?

    FROM BILL: In response to someone else’s question I listed a lot of possible resources, some of which are free and on the internet and some of which cost money.
    Here is what I said. This is of course a partial list. The other thing to keep in mind, though, is that there’s more to this than just getting “accurate” information. I learn something from the inaccurate information (what certain people are saying in order to create a certain perception, for instance), too. You also have to be able to evaluate the information, and for that you need (ultimately) to be well read in history, philosophy, the sciences, economics, and so forth. At any rate, here is what I said to someone else who asked about resources:

    I have spent (literally) decades looking for unbiased information. Sometimes I thought I’d found it, only to later find something that convinced me that the previous information was at least incorrect if not actualy biased. Sorting through all the information is a lengthy process. It helps to understand history and science. It helps to be well-read in philosophy. This sort of knowledge is a life-long project, and many people just aren’t that interested. They’d rather text their friends than read what the smartest people in history have come up with. That’s just the way it is.

    I read many financial newsletters by people who only get subscribers to the degree that they turn out to be right. Though ALL humans are biased in some way (or at least have a limited perspective), I find that these people are at least doing their best to find out what is really going on, rather than promoting a certain political or cultural point of view (though they often have one). Here are some of the things I read (some of which are not completely unbiased–some things I read because I want to see what information the mainstream is receiving–I read it knowing that it is biased):

    From Robert Prechter and the Elliott Wave people:
    The Elliott Wave Theorist
    The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast
    The Socionomist (newsletter about social mood)
    Ellliott Wave European Financial Forecast
    Elliot Wave Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast
    Elliott Wave Global Market Perspective
    Also check out Robert Prechter’s books, esp Conquering the Crash

    The Aden Forecast

    Decision Point

    Dow Theory Letters (my favorite)

    John Mauldin (google him–free newsletter read by over one million people)

    Safe Wealth Advisory

    Wellington Letter (Bert Dohmen–very good)

    The Dines Letter

    Anything by Martin Weiss (some of his stuff is free, very good)

    The Daily Reckoning (free)

    The Economist (best weekly news magazine in the world, though it has it’s biases)

    I watch a lot of TV news, though I am aware that what they show is selective. I find that Fox, contrary to what many people have been led to believe, is actually the least biased. I make my own interpretations of events, though, rather than adopting the interpretation of TV commentators.

    I also read the Wall Street Journal and USA Today. USA Today is a good barometer of what the masses are being told. It is quite biased, both in what content to present and in how it is presented. I find that Time Magazine and Newsweek are garbage, barely better than People Magazine.

    The books of F.A. Hayek are great, as are books of Harry Browne (especially How I Found Freedom in an Unfree World, which is one of the most important books I’ve ever read), and Ludwig von Mises (not easy reading, though).

    Thomas Sowell’s book are extremely good, especially those about economics. Easy to understand.

    Will and Ariel Durant wrote a multi-volume history of the world (The Story of History) which will take you twenty years to read, but is worth it if you want to understand history.

    The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, by Gibbon, is well worth reading.

    For a broad scientific education for a lay person I suggest the non-fiction books by Isaac Asimov, which are fascinating and easy to understand.

    The books of Barbara Tuchman (historian) are fantastic.

    I have also read extensively about twentieth century history, the history of Nazism and communism (I’ve actually read Das Capital), the labor movement, the works of Mao Tse-Tung (or however they spell it these days), Lenin, Marx, the Fabians, and other related topics. I’m also very well read about the history of the Roman Republic and the Roman Empire. I’ve read quite a lot about economics and financial history. I’m quite well-read in philosophy, psychology, systems theory, and human development. I’ve read most of Ken Wilber’s books. I read a lot of science books written by top scientists for the well-educated non-scientist. I subscribe to several science magazines. I am quite well-read in all the literature about Eastern philosophy (Buddhism, Hinduism, Taoism, Sufism, etc), and it’s western branches (New Thought, Theosophy, etc.)

    A book I’m just finishing now which is amazing is Why the West Rules–For Now, by Ian Morris. This book give the latest info from archeology, sociology, and history about the entire sweep of human history from the early evidence to today. Quite a work, and not difficult reading. He’s quite witty and engaging.

    I could go on and on, but this gives you a few ideas (in fact, a lifetime of ideas, and I’m sure I’m leaving out several categories).

  247. Ed Clark says :

    Bill
    Thanks for your response above. I guess my question would be then. If you are transcending the mind, then what is that space of pure awareness. I realize it is what we truly are but Is that just another mind projection or is it a flow of pure consciousness or the Tao or pure energy. What would your take be on it. I apologize if it has been addressed in previous posts I have read many but am still unclear. i know it is experiential and i am looking for an answer that really is unanswerable, but many have tried to put it in words and since i respect your knowledge on this and am an avid Holosync user i am just, i guess trying to pick your brain, which judging by all this other stuff on here as stretched it to its max. Thanks again, Bill, on your comments. ED

    FROM BILL: Pure awareness is just that: awareness without any contents of awareness. Anything you say about it is an idea about it. Therefore, nothing can be said about it. People are left with saying what it is LIKE, which of course isn’t what it is, and is just using metaphors. Or, people say what it is NOT, which of course isn’t it either. Trying to “get it” with ideas is a trap, just as trying to understand sex without having it, but just by discussing it, gets you nowhere.

  248. Bill,

    I’ve been immersing myself in the works of Graeme Donald Snooks. He’s an economic historian. Very iconoclastic approach. I think you would find his stuff fascinating. In my opinion, it provides a more rigorous underpinning than social mood, while incorporating it.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: It is difficult to find out much about him…

  249. Kelly says :

    Bill,
    I know this will sound off topic, but it’s not. With all of this negative coming in the future, what would you suggest my affirmations be for the next level of Holosync I am about to record?

    Best,
    Kelly

    FROM BILL: I can’t really tell you that–it’s up to you. What do you think they should be?

  250. Kory says :

    Re: Graeme Donald Snooks.

    Questia.com has some info–free/trial

  251. Heather says :

    Hi Bill,
    I love Holosync and am always interested in your take on things. Some of the people’s defensive attitudes on this blog remind me of when I was getting my degree, and the university decided to let students go online to fill out surveys of professors’ performances for the first time. Needless to say, they went back to doing it the old way the next semester.

    My question has to do with something you said a few weeks ago about the role of government. I wondered how you would forsee education being provided by the private sector. Would only people who could pay for it access it? I know even the public school children’s educations are greatly impacted by economic factors, i.e. better school in more affluent areas, etc. I just cling to the idea that the system broken though it is still provides some sort of education to everyone. Clearly I work in this sector, and in view of recent events am trying to imagine a viable future.
    Thanks,
    Heather

    FROM BILL: People assume that if something is being provided by the government now (schools and roads being two possible examples), that must be the best way to do it. Often they can’t imagine another way. Check out this video about privately owned roads: http://reason.tv/video/show/gridlock

    While you’re on that site, put “education” in the search box and you’ll get a lot of videos about education, many of which are about the benefits of privatizing it.

    Regarding education, people are already paying for education, of course, with their taxes. “Free education” is anything but free. In fact the price per student keeps going up and up and the quality keeps going down. The old joke goes something like this: “If you think X is expensive now, wait until it’s free (ie, provided by the government).

    Here is one huge problem about govenment education: it keeps becoming more and more centralized. The number of school districts today in the US is a fraction of what that number used to be as more and more school districts are consolidated into bigger and bigger and bigger ones.

    The more centralized, the more expensive, the less local control, and the more the school spend time keeping track of numbers in order to meet various federal guidelines and rules (providing these numbers costs a lot of money–my ex-wife used to be a principle’s assistant in the largest middle school in Portland, Oregon, and she said she spent the majority of her time complying with federal rules–and that was after the teachers collected all the data, wasting their time).

    ALL government enterprises, including schools, GROW larger and more expensive over time. They never grow smaller and less expensive. And, everyone knows that test scores have gotten worse and worse and kids all less and less well-educated these days, while the cost has skyrocketed. The government solution? MORE money, more rules, more central control. All of this must not be working because there’s not ENOUGH of it, rather than because there’s too much. Who says this? Those who have a vested interest in having more of it.

    There are ways that we could privatize ALL schools, make the control of them local, not national–not even on the state level–and make sure all children can attend, one way or another. It would cost much less per student, and the education would be MUCH better.

    I used to be a large donor to The Marva Collins School in Chicago. Marva Collins took the kids who were utterly failing in public school, some of whom were supposedly retarded, and by THE SECOND GRADE (I am not kidding about this, as I knew these kids) they were reading at a high school level, memorizing long bits of Shakespeare, UNDERSTANDING it–and I mean every word, and synonyms for every word, and the history involved, and on and on. These kids were amazing in what they knew, and they were CONFIDENT and had super self-esteem.

    And, the cost per student was less than half of what it was in the public schools in the same neighborhood. And these were the lowest kids on the totem pole.

    This can be done. Check out those videos. I suspect some of them address this very point.

  252. Chris M says :

    Recently I rediscovered an old bookmark to a Wikipedia entry which I found relevant to this stuff.

    “The tragedy of the commons is a dilemma arising from the situation in which multiple individuals, acting independently and rationally consulting their own self-interest, will ultimately deplete a shared limited resource even when it is clear that it is not in anyone’s long-term interest for this to happen.”

    Democracy suggests a degree of equality. Responsibility does not necessarily exist when one of many. Freedom (or the illusion of freedom) may be lost when governments fail. To what degree do you believe in the various self-improvement services to make people more aware of the forces in their lives and their impact on the world?

    You seem to be advocating a point of view that does depend on people taking responsibility for their lives. Do you really think this will happen as a result of negative social mood?

    -Chris M

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

    FROM BILL: I don’t know how anyone could interpret what I am saying as being against taking responsibility for their lives. That’s what everything I teach is about. In order to be EFFECTIVELY responsible, though, you have to be aware because what you are unaware of, even if it comes from you and something you think or do, happens automatically if you aren’t aware. Even so, if you aren’t held responsible for it, who else would be?

    Demoncracy is only about equality in the sense that each citizen in a democracy has a vote. It is definitely NOT about equality. Demoncracy is actually about the rule of the majority’s wishes at the expense of those in the minority. Nothing equal about that. That’s why most issues in society should be determined by the individual rather than by some elite group who supposedly knows what is best for everyone, or by the majority of the mob who then take away the freedom of the minority to go about their own business in their own way.

  253. Chris M says :

    Well you certainly seem like a realist. Could I ask a more selfish question?
    If So: I sense you perceive different opposites than me. I am not one to say this is right or that is absolutely wrong. I want to know what opposites I may have that are not resourceful. I may end up manifesting certain things in my life if I do so, that on a deeper level, may not be resourceful. Then again, I am a young adult, not quite having lost a certain idealism, and a certain adherence to reality may reduce creativity and innovation. Are these the kinds of questions you would be able to aid with if I re-bought the LPIP course with email access to you (or that other lady I suppose)? Are there any oppertunites to get to talk personally with someone who could help me? Obviously I have quite the disposition to talk to the ‘famous’ Bill Harris who has helped over a million people, and somehow doesn’t seem like a douche. Perhaps you could introduce me to Genpo merzel. I like the idea of talking on the phone with him. I am floating on many levels. I started reading Ken Wilbur’s book ‘Grace and grit’ and I relate to him on many levels, (including his personal preferences on issues). (Will look into that integral stuff a bit more.) Feel free to email me rather than posting this. I personally think the genpo thing is most likely, but try to be a realist myself, i suppose you could say.

    -Chris

    FROM BILL: Well, there’s nothing better than experience, and that’s the problem with being young–not so much experience (and, usually, a stubborn reluctance to listen to anyone with more experience–though plenty of older people don’t know what they’re talking about).

    Everyone has a built-in way to identify what is resourceful and what isn’t. It’s awareness. The problem is that you have to do something to develop enough of it to use it in the way I’m suggesting. It works like this: IF you are aware enough to see how you are creating the four things you could have choice about–how you feel, how you behave, which people and situations you attract or become attracted to, and what meanings you assign to what happens–you automatically choose what is resourceful. A part of you just knows, though this part isn’t active (or should I say, available to you) unless you have enough awareness.

    So the task is to become more aware, and secondarily, to learn how to direct that awareness to those internal processes you use to create those four things (the rest of what happens to you, despite what all the New Agers say, is not within your control–though you do have a small amount of influence over some of it).

    For becoming more aware, use meditation. Holosync meditation is MUCH faster and more effective. Even with Holosync, it takes a few years to create this increase in awareness. My online courses (or at least the first on) are about how to direct that awareness to those things you do to create those four things.

    As far as I know, there’s no instant way to become resourceful. That’s the problem with being young–anything worth doing in life takes a while to master, so young people are rarely among those with mastery. But so what. Few people are willing to pay the price to master anything, so if you set out now to do so, you will get there, and it will be worth it.

  254. Chris M says :

    Wow. You replied to that after all. I suspect this blog will be one of the footprints of my success. Thanks for all the advice & replies, Bill. It has been the highlight of my day several times now.

    -Chris

  255. Eric says :

    So what should we do to prepare for calamity? (Other than meditate and relax)

    Do you recommend liquidating assets that are tied up in the stock market?

    Should I get a gun?

    Do you think there will be a draft?

    Is there a prediction for a time frame?

    Oh, and Socionomy sounds like something I read about in Issac Asimov’s books when I was a bit younger…

    Thanks,
    Eric

    FROM BILL: It will all happen next Thursday at 11:07 GMT. Get a gun, two or three sandbags, liquidate your stocks, then brew some strong coffee, and relax.

  256. To Chris M.

    It’s like compound interest. The sooner you start saving, the better. If you start meditating now, especially with Holosync, your awareness will start growing now. And it compounds, just like compound interest. Every bit of awareness you gain goes back into the principal and you earn compound interest on compound interest. That’s why all personal growth teachers, starting with Emerson, through Napolean Hill, and including Bill Harris, say the best time to start is NOW.

    As for the LPIP and Genpo Merzel’s Big Mind process, I’ve done both, and they are extremely worthwhile. However, you still need a base of meditation and daily practice to integrate the learning you will generate. That’s why Bill encourages daily meditation even as you go through the LPIP. Genpo does the same in Big Mind. He constantly reminds participants in Big Mind and anyone else who comes to him for wisdom and teaching that a daily “sitting” practice (the Zen term) is absolutely essential to integrate the insights you will have.

    I hope that helps,

    Rich

  257. Lorraine Hough says :

    Bill,

    If it is the collective mood which creates outcomes, then it seems to me that it is thought itself that is causative. Really, what could possibly exist for any of us without our thought? That’s a whole lot of creative power, and nothing comes before it for any of us. So HOW am I going to perceive? Nothing you have said is the doom and gloom it might appear to some, rather a natural consequence of the way thought has been employed. I am my thought as are we all. A cause is never subject to it’s effect – that is irrational and not true consciousness. We are only subject to the effects we produce to the degree we give effect causability.

    Let’s apply this to a mathemtical problem. Let’s say I pointed out all the non productive answers or the way to do the calculation that would result in a wrong answer. Is it going over the wrong answers that really gets me to the right answer? No. There is nothing that prevents you from applying the correct principles right from the start and eliminating all that. The right answer is not dependent on an understanding of the wrong answer, although some stubornly gravitate toward the school of hard knocks. Does the wrong answer have any “real” substance? No, just illusion.

    So where is the substance? What are you creating? How are you employing your thought? Are you raising consciousness, or illusion?

    FROM BILL: Though in a way you are right, “thought” is a rather crude term. Your internal cognitive process, plus some reptilian brain responses, combine to create your responses to whatever is going on–especially to what other people are doing. If you were 100% aware of these processes and could observe them as they create your responses, all your responses would be a choice and you wouldn’t be subject to social mood. However…

  258. Well, I’ve re-read all these posts this weekend and definitely found it to be a differing experience to how it was prior to upgrading in holosync.

    I’m now reading – Unweaving the Rainbow – by Richard Dawkins, which happened to jump out at me from a pile of books, during the long marathon.

    Surely its the – magical thinking – books tv and so on that leads and inspires young people into going towards your suggested science thinking.

    Most of us always have had an unconscious level of awareness, the problem has always been (for myself especially) having a long enough time out, unplugging from the matrix (meditation as you prefer and will) to collate all the evidence, thought processes into making it actually work.

    Whilst i’ve always been labelled this that and the other by society in general for as far back in my life as I can remember – without ever claiming to be “special” which always previously made me feel bad and an outsider for some deep unknown reason,

    I’m happy to have a level of inner peace and ownership of my knowledge and time – which Holosync has rapidly contributed too in recent weeks – which now makes the behaviour of others totally irrelevent.

    IE, I’m getting to grips with owning my Universe, World, Perspective.

    The only thing I have to find now given your “hell in a handbasket” scenerio is the energy and motivation to fully realise utilise and harness those changes from positive to negative and back again into a life less ordinary.

    Great blog and inspiring contributions from some very gifted talented and special individuals, I thank you all :)

  259. Chris M says :

    [Hi Bill – Post this or not, as always it’s a gamble]

    Thanks Rich,

    I respect the words of one who has handled a disciplined lifestyle such as yourself, especially one that has a steep rate of challenge. (..that said, though, I personally dislike the army.) As a person who fluctuated between being pushed hard ‘to reach my potential’ and breezing along in school, I suppose now I can appreciate ‘being disciplined’ better, mainly because I have very little of it in the traditional sense, and am resisting it less. I may utilize your consult at some point, when funding is done with.

    Bill, I am curious.., do I seem like a person who has _not_ been using holosync? I have for several years.
    I thought I was interpreting things in a quite sophisticated way, considered. Is it ironic that such sophistication is known by what is not said? (Well of course it is). Personally, apart from some smaller nuances (certain paradoxes, multi-tier indirect replies), I think I’ve grasped most of what was said (at least the corners). Oh, I must embarrassingly admit, I’m 22, not some 18yo genus. I suppose I’ll have to deal with just finding holosync young, and several coincidences, such as being Chris from Christchurch, turning the same age as Jesus in 2012, just in time for the end of the world…

    -Chris M

    FROM BILL: There’s so much going on in this blog, and that is only one of the many things I have going on that has “so much going on” so I don’t remember whatever I said to you that is generating your question. You seem to be a very thoughtful young man, and I’m glad you found us. I wish I’d found something like what I provide through Centerpointe (including Holosync) when I was your age. It would have saved me a lot of grief.

  260. Darren says :

    Hello Bill,

    I like your direct and realistic way of seeing things, I tend to agree with what you say here in these posts on going to hell in a hand basket. Althought I do not have the indepth knowledge you have on the subject based on what I see going on it makes perfect sense. I was curious as to your thoughts on this subject in terms of Chaos before Reorganization. It seems to me our entire society or species for that matter is going from crazy to crazier. I also tend to thing we will have to hit rock bottom before we realize what a mess has been and is continuing to be created. So as painful as it may seem I think what is happening is what needs to happen for any real change to happen for he better. Is this conscious evolution? Starting to realize the impact of our insatiable need for more.

    Thanks for your posts….

    Darren

    FROM BILL: Generally speaking, the open system that makes up life on earth, with all it’s permutations and variables, will work as long as it can export the entropy (chaos) that is created. As you note, things are getting crazier, which is another word for chaotic. If, at a certain point, the system can’t handle the chaos, it will fall apart, and will eventually be replaced by a new “system”. This has happened several times in the history of the planet, as when the dinosaurs became extinct. I’m not saying that something of that magnitude is coming–I’m just pointing it out as an example.

    Open systems interact with their environment, and because they are involved in continuously exchanging energy with that environment, entropy is created. As long as it can be dealt with the system stays generally the same. If the entropy can’t be dealt with, the system will go through the chaos and reorganization process, which I have written about recently on this blog (right before this series of posts).

  261. David says :

    FROM BILL: What do you want from me? A prediction?

    try numerology ;-)

    FROM BILL: Right. That’s what the really smart people in the world use.

  262. David says :

    FROM BILL: It will all happen next Thursday at 11:07 GMT. Get a gun, two or three sandbags, liquidate your stocks, then brew some strong coffee, and relax.

    I don’t own guns and never shot one round in my entire life, but maybe it’s a good idea eh?!

    the currencies of the new millennium: gold, silver, meditation and plenty of ammo!

    LOL

  263. Darren says :

    Thanks Bill, love the blog, love Holosync; keep it coming.

  264. Santiago says :

    Bill,

    You have given people a lot of good recommendations on books to read about history, science, etc … I was wandering, since you’ve been also a spiritual seeker for a long time, have you also had many relationships with spiritual teachers ? I ask because I find it a very complex subject, a lot of people (even people that one would consider really smart) get dragged into cults. I find it fascinating.

    Of all the teachers you know or have known (presently living or passed away), according to your appreciation, which ones would you recommend as authentic teachers to people ?

    I know is lengthy and I’ve never heard you speak about your relationship to teachers other than Genpo Roshi. Maybe you haven’t had one before him.

    Thanks,

    Santiago

    FROM BILL: You’ve found Genpo. He’s the real thing. Stick with him.

    I have been with a number of other teachers in the past. Stick with Genpo.

  265. Gerry says :

    Bill I think you forgot two contrasting attitudes for positive and negative social moods.
    1. Being at cause/ Being at effect,
    2. Having choice/seeing no choice.

    It would be nice if people realized they could avoid anger and depression by choosing to put their mental focus on what they wanted to create after seeing the unwanted truth of what is really happening rather than avoiding the unwanted truth or never getting past it.

    I have noticed that the space of depression and resign to the inevitable can easily be created with the focus of what you imagine is coming rather than what you will create as your life experience.

    I have noticed the level of complexity that the mind and imagination can create by the application of science for prognostication or explanation can be overwhelming for those that forget that reality is completely formed by the mind. We as individuals have the present moment to create as we wish, there is no independent creation of the present apart from our own.

    FROM BILL: Well, it’s actually not that simple, as I have outlined many times. I take it that you have not read the rest of this blog–or taken my Life Principles online courses.

    There are many things about life that you cannot control. The two big categories are cause and effect and impermanence. I don’t have time to go into everything that means here. Go read past posts, where I go into this in a lot of detail. It is likely that it is a point of view you are not familiar with.

    While you can’t control (but do have a TINY amount of influence over) the many physical processes of the universe and the actions of others, which are often at odds with your own agenda, there are four things over which you can have choice, but ONLY IF you are aware enough to see how you create them: 1) how you feel, 2) how you behave, 3) which people and situations you attract or become attracted to, and 4) what meanings you assign to what happens.

    Unfortunately, using will power to focus on what you want or what is possible only works in certain “easy” situtation. In the difficult parts of life (which are different for different people) where there is a perception of possible danger, trying to focus on what you want merely reminds you of the danger you want to avoid, which pulls your attention back to what you don’t want. What does work is awareness–observing yourself create those four things I listed above, as you do it.

    This means observing certain internal process that for nearly all people are happening OUTSIDE your awareness. It does not mean “knowing about” what you are creating–it means watching how your internal processes create those four things. This takes three things: 1) more awareness than most people have, which is why meditation, and especially Holosync meditation, is necessary, 2) knowing where to direct that awareness, and 3) lots of practice.

    Awareness creates choice about those four things, but there is a price to pay to have and to utilyze that awareness.

    So if you go back to the rest of my body of work, you will see that I haven’t forgetten this at all.

  266. Chris says :

    ONLINE PETITION FOR BILL TO POST PART 3 ALREADY.

    Please Sign Below:

    FROM BILL: Believe it or not, I have other things to do sometimes–give me some time to finish it!

  267. Me, personally, I’m waiting for the robots to take over…

    FROM BILL: I thought that already happened.

  268. Santiago says :

    Thanks Bill, I wasn’t planning on leaving Genpo, but I was curious about your own experience.

    On the other had, I have a doubt on the socionomic hypothesis that maybe you or Christopher can help me with.

    The patterns on social mood come from a herd behavior that is manifested basically on the stock market in which there are very few people involved. What I don’t understand is the extrapolation, how can they use the herd behavior of a few traders (a tiny tiny tiny fraction of the population) to reflect the general social mood of the entire population ?

    FROM BILL: 1) There aren’t A FEW traders. 2) Look at all his evidence of how the stock market LED events in a huge number of areas of human behavior.

  269. Bill,

    I’m kinda surprised, and maybe I shouldn’t be as I only know you from print/audio media and the representations I’ve abstracted about you from that. I’m a little late to the party here (this blog post and the last) and haven’t checked out the Socionomic Theory site yet, but I’ve read William Strauss and Neil Howe’s “The Fourth Turning”, which I suspect, based upon what I’ve read here, covers much of the same territory, and that was published in ’97.

    Ah, but my surprise, misplaced or otherwise: that would be that you don’t see, in some way, all this as a macro/global-extrapolation of Prigogine’s theory of chaos in open systems (I’m sure you’re familiar with it) and/or Robert Kegan’s continuation of Piaget’s work in that the old developmental center is lost prior to the attainment of the new level. Having been a physicist/chemist/developmental psychologist (just like Buckaroo Banzai, though in actuality, he was an astrophysicist, brain/neurosurgeon, and rock star) for all of five seconds now, the two theories, though describing different phenomenon, seem to me remarkably similar—and yes, it is, I think, to some extent, debatable whether the planet is really an open system or not. And when you add all that alchemy/Jungian depth psychology “as within, so without, above/below” it is hard, or maybe I should say, enticing, at least for me, to not see this as the “upheaval/loss of the old developmental center/paradigm” for the collective “world-psyche”, to ill-coin a term. As I’m sure you know; Jung was convinced that the world could/would be saved if enough people completed, or at least started the individuation path. His “The Undiscovered Self”—the only book of his I’ve read—which was a response to Communism/Fascism seems more relevant today than anytime since it was written.

    I am very curious to hear your thoughts on this, why your, and I hate to call it prognosis, inclination, seems to have strayed so far from what you have, not preached, but taught.

    The whole thing reminds me of a very old BC comic strip where the ant son is in bed and asks his dad why they have so many horror movies; his dad replies, “So when Armageddon comes we can all go back to bed and say we’ve already seen it.”

    As a parting thought, in a terrible tip-of-the-hat to what was almost the worst part of the ‘70’s, I am of the opinion that you should have labeled these two posts, “Can You Hear the Guns Fernando?”

    Regards,

    The Librarian

    FROM BILL: I don’t see any contradiction between Strauss, Prigogine, and Wave Theory, but I certainly don’t have time to describe how they all go together. That would be a lengthy book.

    Of course the world is an open system. The entire universe is an open system.

  270. Chris M says :

    Hi Bill,
    Habits are usually a large part of peoples lives. Negative social mood can affect the ‘real’ world. Do you sleep in yourself during times of negative social mood? I think I’m on to something with this, for habit seems to contrast with awareness.., or perhaps its simply more easier to be aware ‘in the moment’, for me at least. I do say with some disgust, meta-awareness. Is ‘watching the watcher’ the key to (maintaining) equilibrium during negative social mood? Hopefully you get me-, cognitively, there is no ideas there.

    -Chris M

    FROM BILL: What you are aware of–in yourself–becomes a choice.

  271. Chris says :

    Bill,

    Are you familiar with the work of Bill Cooper, or how the religions of mystery babylon have shaped modern history?

    Just curious what your take is.

    FROM BILL: You really think the religions of “mystery babylon” (whatever that is) have played some sort of significant role in shaping modern history. Sigh.

  272. Dan says :

    Hi Bill,

    I have a question that does not apply to this blog post. I am asking it here because I have no other way to contact you and also because your answer may be helpful to others using Holosync. Any feedback would be great.

    Question: Is it possible to be afraid of success?

    I have been using Holosync for 2.5 years or so and I have experienced a tremendous expansion in my own awareness during that time. I now more and more clearly see how I am creating my reality, both in terms of my internal experiences as wells as my external results. I also have times when from this place of awareness I see clearly that it is really possible to create a life by design, taylored exactly according own desires. A life where I am attaining the exact results I want in all areas of life, including relationships, health and fitness, my career, etc.

    These times are very exciting for me as you can probably imagine, as ANYTHING seems possible. It is an empowering feeling I experience, that I can truley direct my life consciously and not just accept whatever shows up (as I have lived to this point).

    Here’s the problem….

    I have noticed that as I head down a path towards a goal concerning my fitness or my career as examples, that I seem to resort back into old, self-defeating and self-sabotaging behavors right at the most crucial moments. It is as though a part of me is resisting the changes I am trying to make even though I consciously very much want them to happen.

    An recent example would be setting a goal to be a certain weight with a certain level of body-fat. I very much want the outcome and I know how to create the results ( in terms of diet and excercise). But, as I get closer and closer to realizing the goal, I find my self skipping workouts and eating things which I know will be counterproductive.

    So, upon reflection of this, as well as several other such happenings in other aspects of my life, I have arrived with the question/thought that a part of me may be in fact afraid of success, and clinging to old ways despite a conscious desire to change.

    I am curious to know your thoughts on this. And, of course, any insights on how to work through it would be appreciated.

    Dan

    FROM BILL: I’m sorry, but I just don’t have time to give consultations like this. If you want that kind of access to me, take the level of my online courses where you get access to me.

  273. Gerry says :

    Hi Bill,

    You are correct my only experience of you is part 1 and 2 of this Going to Hell post. I will spend some time looking through your writings for the ideas that you believe will be new to me. If you have anything you want to point to, please do. But before I do, just a few thoughts…

    If you value expansion, life and growth you will not value controlling impermanence or cause and effect. You will value creating the present moment and recognizing how ever it shows up is how you have created it. We have no limitation except those we have chosen to believe in. I was able to start unraveling this in meditation, with experiences outside of the illusion of time. These meditations worked to reveal the fundamental beliefs upon which I formed the truth of my reality. I am currently working with the illusion of space.

    FROM BILL: I never said anything about valuing controlling impermanence or cause and effect. I pointed out that you can’t control them. Please don’t make up things that I didn’t say and then argue against them. That is intellectually lazy. You need to learn to tell the difference between what I am saying and your inferences about what I am saying.

  274. Alan H says :

    Hi Bill

    I was very much hooked on reading your reply to Dave H. I have studied fractional reserve banking and monetary policy of the western world. My info comes mainly from textbooks from my brother who is studying accounting along with other works. I think we can both agree, especially after what you wrote, that the whole system is designed to crash. Having said that, wouldn’t it make sense that the government and those who are in charge would want a plan to restore order after the almost guaranteed fallout of what that crash will bring? I.e look at what happened after Katrina, although Japan seems to be more civilized.

    They’d need to re-train the police to handle large riots all over the country (already happening-militarized police). They may need large jails (already happening-thanks to FEMA). They’d probably need a system to transport part of the population to “even” it out (already happening- FEMA trains). I could go on and on, but the point Im making is why is it that you can go as far as the choas, yet when someone talks about possible reactions to it by those in power to actually make it happen, you call it conspiracy theory?

    Sure not all ideas in the conspiracy genre are truthful, just like those that are in the spirituality community. But the reason many people dont really “get” what is going on and may never truly get it, is that they keep an open mind up to a certain point, and then when something comes along that challenges that open mind, they immediately call it a crazy or lunacy.

    I realize that this is beyond the scope perhaps of a personal growth blog, but you kind of leave yourself open for criticizing comments when making comments as such. Of course I say this will all do respect

    FROM BILL: Oh, I agree that something like what you describe is possible. When I used the term “conspiracy theory” I was referring to the specific theory being described. Many of these I’ve heard before. Some are based on an real analysis of the conditions, the motives of those in power, and other real data. Some others are wild speculations leaping right out of the mind of people based on scattered facts plus various fallacies and imaginings.

  275. Santiago says :

    Bill,

    As I know your familiar with the Integral Theory (which I see as one of the best models around, though very very very far away from explaining what’s going on) they argue that there’s a critical mass of people at integral stages that if built would create a planetary shift. (10% of the population I think).

    I know you see a very different direction according to socionomics, but I was wandering on your thoughts about this. Do you see it as new age or wishful thinking ?

    BTW This questions I’m posting here are not intended to prove that you’re wrong and I’m right. As I’ve said before, I think that what you predict might in fact happen. I’m just interested in your opinions on this subjects, even if I don’t agree with them.

    Love,

    Santiago

    FROM BILL: What evidence does Ken Wilber present that 10% is the magic number? (None, as far as I know.) What evidence is there for what percentage of people are at such-and-such a developmental stage–especially those he thinks are critical. Very little. This is, I think, a personal guess on his point.

  276. Gerry says :

    What is it that you value?
    What is it that you want with these exchanges?

    For me, any experience you have from my words is your own experience; any experience I have from your words is mine.

    This exchange for me represents an enrichment of the source/process that generates ideas and thinking. For me it is not important that I get the meaning in your words, only that your words spark my thinking.

    FROM BILL: That’s all I ask.

  277. Chris M says :

    Sorry if I’m posting too much (whats up with all these different Chris’ – 4 or 5 of them now). Social mood may have ups and downs, but there were not antidepressants and certain other mood-effecting drugs 200 years ago to the same extent there are now. Unless I am wrong, there are a record-high percentage of people using anti-depressants in first-world countries. A quick online search suggests over 10% of people living on America use anti-depressants. This could have a serious effect on mood (though I don’t really know how, admittedly). When considering “the biggest low in hundreds of years, etc” this may be a factor. Laziness itself is a factor also, many people simply don’t care. The stuff I have read so far didn’t address this. What is your take on this, Bill? Have you any sources of information about the “new level/something of consciousness emerging” you mentioned awhile back, and perhaps what this will mean?

    -Chris M

  278. JoelSmall says :

    WONDERFUL, Wonderful, Wonderful. 22 year old here, full of curiosity. I Have been using Holosync for just under one year. Thought I would have a look at the blog last night, and I AM HOOKED. I think it is about time I really get into this stuff. Thank you.

  279. Zebbedee says :

    Bill,

    Thanks so much for these posts.

    Reading them reminded me of a conversation I had with my sister in New Zealand when I returned for a visit (just after the enormous floods in Australia and prior to the Christchurch earthquake).

    She had just watched Collapse, a recent documentary featuring a futurist who proposes a very similar prognosis to this one. She was convinced of that scenario (and she’s not stupid) and said to me: get ready, its all falling apart very soon, move back home to NZ, grow your own vegetables etc.

    My initial reaction to her was to recommend reading Chaos Point by Ervin Laszlo which juxtaposes an evolutionary ‘breakthrough’ scenario alongside the ‘breakdown’ one. (He’s no woo-woo utopian either, but a Nobel-nominated systems theorist).

    I said to her that having the awareness of possible breakdown was not enough. You must include – and work towards – the real possibility of such a breakthrough, in the way that Lazslo is describing.

    I am sure you are aware of Lazslo and other evolutionary ‘optimists’ such as Barbara Marx Hubbard.

    My question: do you think the possibility of such a ‘breakthrough’ scenario into a new consciousness is possible… does socionomy include these in its models?

    FROM BILL: Prechter isn’t a futurist. He’s not guessing about possible scenarios. He’s looking at a repeating pattern in history and noticing what kinds of things happen in different stages of that pattern.

    The amount of debt alone–a result of historically high positive social mood–will sink the economy, which will cause great chaos, conflict, etc. Eventually, there will be an upswing, of course.

  280. Joy says :

    As a targeted individual I know that there is so much that is covered up. I was so naiieve to believe in the things I once believed in. I was gangstalked on an overseas military base. Our goverment iscorrupt. There are meny who seem to think this gangstalking thing is great intertainment.They do it because there are no laws against it.It has made me wonder if I beielve in the US of A or war anymore. In fact I know that it, the usa only exists in memory. I know I was taught that I was free only to find out that people’s expectations of who they wanted me to be really are no different than those of the supposed terrorists, for women. I beieve you are right, Bill. I’ve been feeling with a way to back it up that America is going the way of Rome and that we are headed for another dark are. I know it’s true if the US govt. thinks I’m a terrist. Don’t be fooled about all the shootings happening. It is just a ploy to get people to pass stricter gun laws so that many of us will not be able to defend ourselves. Those people you hear of are manchurian candidtates. Mind control is very much real. I should tell you of the subliminal dreams I’ve got. Trust me, I reprogram myself daily to avoid being used in such a way. They may kill me ,but my soul is still mine. For trying to e-mail a chaplin I got hit over the head.

  281. Joy says :

    I forgot to thank you for this blog. Sorry for all the misspelling in the last post. Obiously I didn’t want to loose my nerve. The gangstalkers have tried to strike fear in me but I know “fear and it will appear.” It’s good to read something worth reading. So much out there is just junk. But thank you. You’ve helped me so much through this time of change. I’ve read so many other self help authors but ultimately yours is the one that I keep coming back to.

  282. Santiago,

    I find most of Wilber’s work to be highly speculative and, despite his claims to be “post-metaphysical,” actually highly metaphysical (with actually some magical thinking).

    Moreover, to the best of my knowledge, he has never submitted any of his work or theories to peer review. Pretty much everything he has written has been published by Shambhala, which is a New Age and spirituality publisher.

    He has also surrounded himself with a bunch of New Age practitioners and I find the tone of much of his writing and of the whole “integral” movement to be unbearably self-important and elitist, snooty even.

    Other than that it’s okay. ;-)

    Rich

    FROM BILL: Overall, I agree. I know quite a few “integral” people and few of them even understand what Ken is talking about. And I have heard Ken say a number of things that disappointingly sound very much like magical thinking to me. And, what you say about peer review is certainly true.

    Ken has done some interesting integration/categorization of certain philosophical schools and approaches, and has done the same with various models/stages of human development. None of this required particularly new ideas, but rather an ability to see and describe certain interesting patterns.

    The four-quadrant idea is an interesting and useful way to look at a situation or topic (I don’t know, though, if it is original to Wilber, though most Integral followers assume it is–which it may be). Also useful (to me) is Ken’s noting that many philosophical and political positions, and the resulting arguments between rival adherents to this or that school of thought, are really a result of the rivals viewing the topic (whatever it happens to be) from different quadrants (usually from one quadrant only) while ignoring the perspective of the other quadrants.

    Often what one school of thought says seems quite reasonable, until you hear the views of another school of thought. This is because both are viewing the same things from a different perspective, and their view from their perspective is largely accurate, but not the whole story.

    (The four quadrants, for those who don’t know are: 1) the interior (subjective view) of the individual–your internal experience of yourself, how you feel, your thoughts, your values, etc, 2) the external (objective view) of the individual–what others can see of you from the outside, or what you can see of another, 3) the interior (subjective) view of the collective–culture, essentially, and 4) the external (objective) view of the collective–ie, laws, societal infrastructure, nations, etc.)

    For instance, certain people believe that the reason why some people have trouble in life is because they don’t have the right values, principles, internal strategies, fortitude, etc. (ie, the internal of the individual is the driving force and must be corrected in order to experience resourceful outcomes). Others believe that it’s your environment–the external conditions must be changed in order to experience resourceful outcomes. The “intergral” thinker would say that all four perspectives contribute to your situation and that the best way to improve things is to work on them all. Seems obvious, but most people championing a cause don’t look at things this way.

    One of Ken’s goals, it seems, is (was?–I don’t know what he’s into these days) to get those who are strongly into the upper right quadrant (the objective view–science, empiricism) to agree that there is also a subjective view and that it has a place in human experience. Empiricists dismiss the internal subjective experience because it can’t be observed from the outside (seeing the workings of the brain isn’t a view of your subjective self, but an objective view). Only the individual really knows what he or she experiencing, and though you can tell someone else, what you say about it is never “it”–you can never really get it across to someone.

    Magical thinkers mistakenly take the idea that the internal subjective aspect of the individual also should have a seat at the table to mean that their subjective view has some sort of objective reality (when it’s really a subjective reality) and that it can directly effect the objective world, just as objective things can effect other objective things (they confuse these two quadrants rather than seeing them as different but partial views). I think Ken strays into this a bit himself (sometimes “strays” isn’t strong enough, in fact), even though he is on record as seeing magical thinking as pre-rational (which it is).

  283. C says :

    Well, well…. look at the scientists and rationalists take over this blog. Thanks for looking at the subjective quadrants from your objective point of view. We will all be saved if we can just figure out the formula.

    Feeling is the spice of life, gentlemen. You can’t make love to a woman (like she needs) by following the proper logical steps.

    FROM BILL: I have nothing against the subjective quadrant. That’s where emotion is, and meditation, and transcendent experience, and thinking, and values, and a lot of other good stuff. I’m constantly amazed at how some of you take something that has been said, filter it through your own internal map, and then attribute what comes out the other end to someone else. Not very aware, when you can’t tell the difference between something someone says and your ideas about it.

  284. Bill,

    All good points. To the best of my knowledge, Ken has never claimed the ideas of others as his own. In fact, he has always adhered scrupulously to the rules of attribution, which is much to his credit. His endnotes are often mini-dissertations in their own right. I also agree that his main strength is in creating big ideas that encompass a lot of the work of others. He’s also claimed that as his strength.

    As for his 4 quadrant model, he’s on record as being influenced by traditional philosophical concepts of “The Big Three”: the Good, the True, the Beautiful, especially as articulated by Kant; Jürgen Habermas’s work Communication and the Evolution of Society (regarding homologies between individual and social development/evolution) and the Theory of Communicative Action (inter-subjectivity); as well as German and French hermeneutics.

    Wilber’s book Sex, Ecology, Spirituality was a major influence on me in the mid-nineties. It fortuitously came out just as the World Wide Web was going live and that book made him a New Age star. Moreover, I found out about Holosync by listening to Ken’s interviews of you in late 2004. Later I also found out about Genpo Roshi’s Big Mind approach. Holosync, the Life Principles Integration Process, and Big Mind have changed my life.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: Yes, I thought that SES was his best book.

  285. Michelle says :

    Hi Bill

    I’ve just read your blog and all the responses with fascination, fear and then realisation.

    I was wondering why it was that humans seemed to be a blip of nature, the only species living apart from its ecosystem and destroying other ecosystems.

    I wondered why the human evolved to be seperate from the rest of nature. Why we used to thank the sun and the earth for food and warmth and rain and we used to celebrate life and accept death. And then somehow we lost this connection to our animal instincts and we created an “economy” to make us safe and then we thanked the economy for our food even though instinctively we didn’t trust it and we hoarded material possesions and money in our fear as we became more seperate.

    I don’t understand why the seperation happened – but surely it was right.

    I wondered if it was something to do with a lack of the feminine that caused this seperation as it is through the feminine aspects of humanity – through the feelings of love, compassion, joy, peace and creativity that we feel oneness again and lose the feeling of seperation. As this is happening on an individual level maybe it is happening as a collective. Humanity cannot survive without the feminine – without its other half.

    And then I realised that surely what you are saying is that our collective map of reality that we call the “economy” is crumbling and we are perceiving the world to be going into chaos. But in fact it is only our collective map. I’ve noticed that the birds and the bees and the flowers haven’t been effected by this negative social doom.

    And then I felt reassured rather than fearful.

    When you think about it, it is absolutely incredible and amazing to be able to watch this massive evolutionary change. I wonder how many watched it happen in the previous waves throughout history? Thanks to you there will be more this time!

    I know from my own experience of chaos and reorganisation that I have always had a positive outcome even though I may have lost some of the beliefs I used to hold on fast too.

    By the way, I notice that most of the responses to your blog were from men and most were trying to make sense of it and theorise – which totally lost me. Why is that do you think? Maybe your wife could write a post for us girlies.

    love Michelle

    FROM BILL: Humans are not separate from nature. They are intimately connected to nature, just like everything else is. And they are not the only animal that can have a negative effect on the ecosystem. All energy transfers, in all creatures, create entropy. Humans have just become really good at harnessing energy, so their ability to create entropy is greater. In this universe, there is a price for everything. The price for not working from sun up to sundown just to have enough to eat is the harnessing of energy. It’s also why you have abundant food, warmth and shelter, running hot water, a way to travel to other places, interesting entertainment, modern medicine and a longer life, and many other things.

    Those who want to return to the days before humans were good at harnessing energy will yearn for the good old days when they had electricity, oil, and other forms of energy if they ever have to go without them (which might happen, at least temporarily, in the coming years, if things get bad enough).

    Go to http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-297681774672439227# (or google Our Mr. Sun) and watch “Our Mr. Sun,” one of several excellent science movies created by Bell Laboratories in the 1950s (this one is from 1956). This was a time of inreasingly positive social mood, and the contrast between the mood expressed in this movie and what we’re all feeling today is stunning.

    As I’ve been saying, social mood moves from postive to negative and back again, and how you feel and how you see the world, other people, and yourself is directly related to the overall social mood.

    Besides being a very interesting, entertaining, and informative movie, end is a joyous, emotionally exhillerating outpouring of gratitude for the sun, the earth, and how fortunate we are to be alive, with Beethoven’s 9th Symphony playing.

    This movie shows how people felt in times of increasingly positive social mood. What you see and feel today (and what you think about the earth, other people, etc.) is the result of social mood becoming extremely negative.

    Beware. This movie refers to God in a few places (!), including having a bible quote right at the beginning (though it isn’t overtly religious–it’s just that Christianity was unashamedly a part of the social fabric in those days), which may offend some of you anti-Christians. And though it really is worth seeing in its entirety, you can scroll to the 50 minute mark if you just want to see the outpouring of gratitude I mentioned above. Personally, I would watch the whole thing, but that’s me.

  286. Terry says :

    Bill,

    I want to thank you for sharing this information with us. I understand some of the negative reactions from people – many of whom will have heavy emotional problems and find it difficult to hear.

    Although I also have emotional problems, I am grateful for the heads-up and agree that if you genuinely believe what you say based on multi-decade research, it would be remiss of you not to share this information with your readers.

    I understand the argument of some who say that perhaps you are seeking to frighten people into buying more Holosync, but I would invite them (as you have) to look at the evidence you have presented before drawing such conclusions.

    I appreciate you giving of your time free of charge and answering the comments – which given your in depth knowledge on these issues is extremely valuable.

    I’d also like to take responsibility for my role in our disagreement some time ago.

    Looking back at that time, the depth of my instability and unconsciousness is quite astonishing – and whilst there were things that you could have said differently, my responses were definitely disproportionate.

    I continue to grow and develop and internalize your teachings as time goes by, which means that my exposure to your work has greatly supported my development and increased the quality of my life.

    One really big gift you have given me – especially recently is a realization of the extent of my ignorance. I’m a pretty smart guy but I don’t know nearly enough about Economics, and Human History.

    It is my view that the quality of a person’s life is determined by the quality of their decisions – and if I’m going to make good decisions, I need to be well informed.

    So in recognition of my knowledge gaps and following your reading suggestions, I recently got a number of books including “Basic Economics: A Common Sense Guide” by Thomas Sowell which I’m finding really fascinating.

    I also got a copy of “How I found freedom in an Unfree world” – this is the greatest book I have ever read. Absolutely breathtaking – it was just packed with priceless life lessons and I can’t recommend it strongly enough. Thanks for letting us know about it.

    Finally I have recommitted to Holosync after some time away – and will definitely finish the program in its entirety.

    Wishing you well,

    Terry

    FROM BILL: We’re all ignorant, ultimately. No one knows why all this is happening, where it came from, or where it is going. Even the wisest person is in the dark.

    These are two excellent, excellent books. Anything by Thomas Sowell is excellent. You can find all his newspaper columns online, too, and they are also great. And Harry Browne is nothing short of brilliant. How I Found Freedom is one of the two or three most influential books in my life.

    And, I’m proud of you for being more interested in discovering what is true than clinging to your position, and having the flexibility to entertain evidence that contradicts what you already think is true. That attitude will serve you well.

  287. Jem says :

    I really didn’t want to respond purely on the grounds that everything I say you see with your eyes, admitedly we are all subject to our own minds. However you seem to teach awareness & then you ridicule people who you say, mis-understand your words, when you do exactly the same to other people without actually asking what they meant, or to clarify anything. You have taught me a lot Bill, since finding you & holosync & I thank the day I did come across you…….you can thank the secret for that. I understand some of your distaste for magical thinking, (I have to discern Occult from magical thinking….they are not even close) after just reading an email from John Asaraf (fellow conspiritor from the secret) & it shows me just how gulliable we all are, it is thanks to holosync that I don’t run & jump, thinking that it will benefit me…. when its all bull shit…. American dream of making that elusive dollar irrelevant of anything or anyone else. So I do have (believe it or not), great respect for you in a lot of way’s. Where I seem to hit a hurdle is your brutal indifference to peoples feeling’s. When a person is clearly hearting & reaches out to you for some form of conection, you quite often be-little them. I often wonder why this is? I assume it’s nothing to do with holosync (I hope), & can only assume it is your personality, & I can only assume that you choose to be this way being aware and all that, as you are. Questions, Questions, qustions…..WHO NEEDS EM.

    FROM BILL: I doubt that you can point to a situation where I was short with someone where they weren’t attacking me (often for something I didn’t say) or accusing me of something (hating Muslims, for instance). When someone comes on here with a lot of anger and no actual facts or argument…they should do so at their own risk. I have little patience for that sort of thing.

  288. Jem says :

    P.S. I meant Astronomically, not astrology (earlier post), my mistake. Based on the movement of the planets. They do not make any predictions on how this effects humans, however just like socionomicse people have been studying patterns for a very long time. It is a fact that the Moon effects Earth, & I think its pretty naive to think we are the only thing on planet Earth that’s not affected by the moon. We are made up of the same elements as the rest of the universe, course & effect & all that old boy, magnetism & reflection its all chemistry & has relevance. Just had phone call so lost my train of thought, if it was ever there, Lol. Anyways (personally) I think its Gods (However you want to call him/her/it), plan & we are just coming into a new phase where different elements within ourselfs are going to become more active, & this cosequently affects emotions. Again, just a thought.

    FROM BILL: The moon affects the earth through reflected light and gravity. To the degree that humans are affected by that, the moon affects them. I suspect that that isn’t very much. Every reasonable study ever done on lunar effects of emotions has found no relationship whatsoever.

  289. Jem says :

    As the old saying goes, “As the planets move, so do we”.

  290. Jem says :

    Or if you want to pick bones. As the Earth moves, so do we follow.

  291. Zebbedee says :

    To Christopher:

    I have been reading and appreciating your comments on this blog regarding Elliot waves.

    I have looked at those head-and-shoulders big charts you pointed us to, and can really see what you are talking about.

    I am a complete beginner to market forecasting or any kind of technical analysis but I still feel I need to educate myself further before I begin talking about this to others.

    I’ve gone to the socionomics.net website and looked at a copy of The Elliott Wave Principle in Borders but I wondered if you – or Bill – could recommend any other books that may be easier for a beginner – specifically in terms of the broad social understanding of this model, similar to what you were talking about on the blog.

    If the Prechter book is the best then I will slog through that…

    If I am going to begin talking about this to my friends I need to find effective layman’s language, and references to do it in an understandable and believable way. Those head and shoulders charts are a great start.

    The varieties of misunderstanding possible to this subject is obvious when you read the replies to this blog post. To be really honest, I am still not even sure about it all myself.

    Many thanks and thanks for your contributions to the discussion and to Bill for igniting it – as scary as it all is to learn at first!!!

    FROM BILL: There are many good books about technical analysis of financial markets. Go to Amazon and try some key words and see what you can find.

    John Casti wrote a book called Mood Matters that is about social mood based on Elliott Wave stuff.

  292. Terry says :

    Bill,

    Thanks for your response. I found it very encouraging.

    Please could you give me recommendation/s for trustable information on the U.K economy and what the banks here are up to.

    Terry

    FROM BILL: I have done so in answers to others posts. I posted a long list, which you can find if you scroll through the comments and my responses to the comments.

    The problem in educating yourself about this sort of thing is that it really requires knowledge of history, of financial history, of economics, of political science, and probbly a few other things, and you have to sort through a lot of things to find the prince amonst the frogs. It has taken me decades to educate myself, and since everything is a moving target I’m always learning more and finding new information, some of which invalidates something I previously thought was accurate.

    To really learn about this sort of thing you have to really want to–it has to be a passion–since it is quite time consuming. If you are really interested in what is unfolding, as I am (I think it’s utterly fascinating), it isn’t a chore. For some people, though, it would be.

    On book I didn’t list in the other post that I think is very important is The Road to Serfdom by Friedrich Hayak.

  293. Terry says :

    Bill,

    it just occurred to me: as this question seems to be coming up quite a bit, you might consider having a section on the site that outlines your recommended reading material for history, economics, philosophy, and other subjects that will help people understand, prepare and deal with the challenges that are likely to come as a result of this downturn in social mood.

    Best
    Terry

  294. Jem says :

    Thats just not true Bill, it has been found “as needs more investigation”. T he tsumarmi & earth quake that affectid Japan was triggered by the closest the moon has been to Earth for quite a while. If it can effect the Earth to such a degree, don’t you think its possiable that it effects us as well. Being that we are mainly water & the Moon for some reason has a distinct affect on water it would seem plausiable that we would be affected to some degree as well, considering the rest of nature is. Again just my thoughts.

    FROM BILL: No geologists I know of have said anything about the moon triggering earthquakes. If it is fun for you to believe that, be my guest.

  295. Michelle says :

    Dear Bill

    I just watched Our Mr Sun. It’s fantastic.

    So there is hope! Humanity may find a way to live en mass on or off this planet.

    I guess there is no point in us finding the answer as we are now though. We’d only argue over it and kill each other. And can you imagine us all going to live on another planet like we are now! I’d stay here.

    We probably need to go through hell to wake up and realise we’re all in the same boat – or should I say on the same planet – and then perhaps we’ll focus on finding a way to live here together with help from Mr Sun. Or maybe we won’t and the earth will continue without us.

    This blog has consumed my thoughts for a few days – it’s easy to see the big picture but strange (and scarey) to relate that to our individual lives.

    I’m off to enjoy life as I know it while I can! I rather like it since I’ve discovered Holosync.

    Thanks again

    love Michelle

    Michelle

    FROM BILL: It’s not about everyone waking up to the idea that we all need to get along. During times of positive social mood everyone DOES want to get along. During times of negative social mood everyone is suspicious of everyone else and wants to fight. Good times will come around again, but it might be quite a while.

    Our Mr. Sun is pretty cool, though, isn’t it?

  296. Jem says :

    It’s down to iron supposedly :-)

  297. Rob says :

    Hi jem,

    I think you bought up some interesting points. Yes, the moon exerts some influence on all particles on and in the Earth. The full moon does not however always coincide with the nearest or furthest points on its orbital distance to the earth. The conclusion I draw from this is that the fractional changes in gravitational force that the moon exerts on the Earth, when it moves from nearest to furthest points, have no correlation with the position of the moon when it is full.

    Furthermore, combination of forces always produce a net effect. By this I mean that the gravtational influence of an object is always present as long as the object contains mass, but the corresponding force it exerts on anything else can be off set by forces from other objects (or changes in velocity of objects) We see these combinations of forces all the time on the earth through the very large number of occuring interactions. Some of these interactions will cause the same magnitude of force as the moon on the earth ( ie, as a random example, a lift in a building at some point in its accent)

    Funnily enough, The Uk police force have investigated the full moon and influences it may bear on the masses of drunken youths that decend on our UK towns and cities every Friday and Saturday night. The idea they came up with was that Full moon makes the streets lighter, so people can see what they are doing, hence there are more fights. A novel idea, but they look so drunk on the pictures in the news that I doubt any extra moon light will make much difference to their vision|

    FROM BILL: Of course the police don’t really know how to construct a scientific study, so what they say is suspect. I have read about real studies on the effect of the full moon (which, as you know, is really just the result of a certain alignment of the earth, the moon and the sun so that the sun’s light reflects off the maximum amount of the mood) which all say that there is no correlation between crime, accidents, etc.

  298. Bruce says :

    Bill

    I made several comments to you in this space a couple weeks back on the14th and 15th of March which are posted here and one follow up comment that you did not post.

    I would like to apologize to you and your other readers for the context and some of the content of my comments.

    From the responses you posted back to me I can understand that you likely were offended and probably felt attacked or harmed by those particular statements some of which were intended to be tongue in cheek.

    I do have a particularly wicked sense of humor most of the time that can easily be misunderstood in this medium.

    While I still do not agree with the general commentary you have made on “Going to Hell in a Hand basket 2” I had no right to play off your thoughts or words in a condescending and as you said “smarmy attitude” by being a little man in spirit in my own comments.

    I am neither smarmy nor little in any sense but in general a very successful and balanced human being who is known as a very nice person to many.

    This is especially true because I did not know what I was talking about in my response to your commentary and I did make light of your life’s work at Centerpointe and Holosync.

    I am genuinely sorry for that and do not know what sparked me in those moments to say those particular words to you.

    I am a Holosync user for the past two years and as far as my personal experience with it is concerned I do not yet have enough accumulated experience to make any valid observations about its merits.

    I am not using it as an attempt to fix anything but rather as purely a meditation technique such that I really do not have any expectations about the eventual or potential benefits of longer term usage.

    You are also correct in that some folks do hide behind the anonymity of the internet with irresponsible unaccounted for comments; but I am not one of them.

    Here is hoping that you accept my apologies and if not; I do understand where you are coming from as the creator of this space.

    Sincerely,

    Bruce La Fountain
    Saratoga, California

    FROM BILL: Apology accepted. I appreciate your honesty.

    I don’t know that it’s accurate that some of the things said here offend me, per se, or that I get personally all hot and bothered (though it might come off that way in print, as your comments did). I am attacked quite often, and that has been going on for decades. It’s just part of what happens when you are in the public eye, which I am in a minor way. I see these attacks as more of a commentary on the person making the attack than anything I have to worry about. They just make themselves look bad.

    I have no illusions about wanting everything to like me, and my self esteem isn’t affected by being called names on this blog. The only thing that bothers me is that many people say things without knowing much of anything about the topic, about science, etc., and I just don’t have the time to answer each one and untangle all the fallacies, irrationalities, misrepresentations, name calling, etc., etc. Some people just want to look like they’re smart, and don’t realize that when you open your mouth without knowing what you’re talking about you look stupid, not smart.

    I do this blog as a free service, and when a topic is as popular as this one, and there are hundreds of comments, I can’t possibly stop and look up the facts to provide a long and reasoned refutation of every silly thing a person says (a woman just posted something claiming that the earthquake in Japan was caused by the moon, which is ridiculous). And, those who believe in magic and other BS aren’t convincible anyway. So, sometimes I have to let it go at a short retort.

    One guy told me that Newton’s laws had been disproven, which is an incredibly ignorant comment, which I refuted, to which he replied that Einstein won the Nobel Prize for something he didn’t win it for, which someone else corrected, to which he then thanked the person for confirming that what he was saying was true. How do you deal with that sort of thing? Such a person has only a slender grasp on reality. I have other things to do besides argue with idiots (I’m not saying that you are an idiot).

  299. Ed Clark says :

    Bill
    What is pure awareness. Just another mind construct? If so, how are we aware of no thought. Maybe i am still looking for something supernatural at play here but it is the only thing that makes sense to me.

    FROM BILL: Pure awareness is awareness without content. Thoughts are not awareness. Can’t you be aware of your thoughts? There is nothing metaphysical about it. Awareness is subjective, yes, but that isn’t the same as being metaphysical.

  300. Jem says :

    Some times I think i’m nuts, then I just have look at you all guys & think im not so bad after all :-)

  301. Gavin Chapple says :

    Hi Bill

    I find your Blogs interesting and I have since checked out the Socionomics website and watched the 3 videos they provide once you subscribe.

    Whilst it sounds quite plausible and I wouldnt be surprised if the negative social mood gets worse, what I am confused about is what seems to be your total buy into these predictions when my (maybe I still dont get it) understanding of your teachings is that everything happens NOW, there is only NOW and it comes from “nothing”, the background of endless possibilities the vibration of on/off (the wake of the ship tells us where we have been not where we are going…).

    So how can anyone say what will happen in the future, isnt it just random entropy of the universe continually reorganizing at higher levels?

    from

    Gavin from the land down under (Australia)

    FROM BILL: Couldn’t you predict that there will be more sunny days and warmer temperatures in the summer? Or that the leaves will fall off the trees in autumn? That more people will be on the road between 7 am and 9 am and 5 pm and 6 pm? There are patterns in the world, and some people notice them. Try it. They’re quite reliable.

  302. Michelle says :

    Dear Bill

    After watching Our Mr Sun and feeling rather optimistic yesterday, today I have realised that this is very real. This could be the end of life as we know it. I’ve never really taken it on board before.

    I feel a massive sadness and have cried today. When I look at people busy about their lives it seems unreal that it is all for nothing. How can that be? This planet is so beautiful, children are so special and we humans have this amazing ability to love and create and make the most beautiful things. How can we destroy like this? It is the biggest tradegy.

    Your blog has been a massive jolt of reality to me. I have a beautiful and happy 11 year old daughter and to think of the future you have described is just horrible. I guess your blog has pushed me into overwhelm.

    It’s certainly made me feel love and compassion for everybody!

    love Michelle

    FROM BILL: Your RESPONSE to the blog has sent you into overwhelm. Your responses to the world are a choice to the extent that you are aware, as you do it, of how you create your responses.

    I don’t think this is going to be the end of life as we know it–just hard times. They’ve happened before, and they will happen again.

  303. Vic says :

    FWIW- There are some very good writings by Dr. Walter E. Williams that may interest some here.

    FWIW (2)- There is mention in this video regarding how the moon may affect earthquakes. Please don’t shoot the messenger. :>)

    http://www.metatube.com/en/videos/53200/California-Earthquake-Predicted-for-Saturday-March-19th-2011/

    FROM BILL: I’ve seen him before. But was there a quake on March 19th? I was in LA on that day, and I didn’t feel or hear about a quake.

  304. Jem says :

    Bill, to say Geology doesent think the Moon affects the Earth is just not true. It is a fact. What they quible about is does it affects humans.

    FROM BILL: I wish you people would disagree with what I SAY at least, not some distortion of what I said. I didn’t say the moon doesn’t affect the earth. Of course it does. I said I don’t think it affects it enough to cause earthquakes.

    What is it with you people that this stuff is SO important you want to argue about it? Why even bring this stuff up at all? Don’t you people have hobbies? Loved ones? Favorite reality shows?

  305. Brian B says :

    Hi Bill,

    I have only just started studying socionomics and had a question for you. I thought I heard Prechter say in an interview that the coming depression will last 5-7 years or so, and then we’ll come out of it. Since this down wave of social mood is rebounding off of about 200 years of positive social mood, does that mean that down waves last much shorter and are much steeper than up waves?

    Just restated in a different way, I know the Wave 1 down started in around 2000, and if I interpreted correctly Prechter is saying the Wave 3 down will end sometime around 2020, depending on when it starts. That would mean the 3 wave down cycle only took 20 years, compared to the 200 years that the 5 wave up cycle took. Is that typical for social mood?

    Thanks for this blog,
    Brian

    FROM BILL: I’m not an expert on the timing of these things. These waves subdivide endlessly. Even if “the depression” lasted 5-7 years, according to this point of view we are entering into a long period of declining social mood. Still, it will be interrupted by corrections where mood turns more positive, temporarily. We’ve been on such a rebound since the economic meltdown.

  306. Jem says :

    Bill, I think your an inteligent guy, you have read a lot… more than me sometimes, I think. Sometimes I just don’t know if this is correct or not. I cant keep my tounge, if I did I would be dis-respecting my self. Blah, blah as the old saying goes, on occasion. I’m trying to be clever now, not really working. Again I stick to the view I really know nothing……apart from a little science.

    FROM BILL: Check your spelling, too.

  307. Jem says :

    2 shai old boy

  308. Vic says :

    Bill said, “I’ve seen him before. But was there a quake on March 19th? I was in LA on that day, and I didn’t feel or hear about a quake.”

    Does making one wrong prediction deligitimize everything a person thinks?

    Bob Prechter said (in 1989), “http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=950DE0D61E39F935A35751C0A96F948260”

    Yogi Berra said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.”

  309. Sam says :

    I have to admit that I’m at quite a loss in understanding a lot of what’s going on here, even going back to the beginning when this whole idea of waves and cycles began. I’ve heard about the herd impulse before, but a lot of this seems too technical to me. Being that I am a beginner, I’m quite unable to ascertain whether what I hear is valuable or not. Nevertheless, I found something on the internet that I believe to be pretty helpful in understanding the mindset that one needs to have in going through these times of negativity and powerfully effective social mood. I don’t really want to be a trader or anything like that, however I think that we can chunk this example down to a practical level by understanding these mindsets we need to develope and hopefully focus more on what we want–the powerful positive learning–rather than on fighting and the other clear examples of what negative social mood tends to do to our unconscious. I might get a lot of flack for this, especially from you, Bill, however I want a larger pool of understanding around this and am willing to take the risk.

    There is a website called “calling all traders–and other good people” that I think is worth mentioning and checking out.
    http://www.probablefuture.com/p708.htm
    A few quoats:
    NO MATTER WHAT TRADING TOOLS YOU ARE USING, YOU DO NOT REALLY TRADE EXTERNAL MARKETS. ULTIMATELY YOU ARE TRADING YOUR OWN SELF. YOU ARE EITHER BULLISH/FEARLESS OR BEARISH/FEARFUL ABOUT YOUR REALITY, AND YOUR ATTITUDE ABOUT YOURSELF IS WHAT WILL CREATE YOUR SUCCESS OR FAILURE AT THIS OR ANY OTHER LIFE ENDEAVOR! (sounds a lot like LPIP [life principles integration process online course put out by bill] teaching focus on what you want virsus don’t want)

    Each and every individual thinker (trader or not) will easily recognize the veracity of what we are trying to convey since he/she has probably paid dearly for his/her fear-based thoughts and can be easily convinced of how they have enslaved and run his life. (look at some of the antagonistic responces to Bill on this blog due to merely resisting information about clearly visible patterns)

    Trading financial markets is one of the very few human endeavors which is highly and intrinsically descriptive of the immediate effect upon reality of individual minds and their interrelationship with the global mind of the individuals who form a market. (can understanding Precters illustrations and the herd impulse help with this)

    There is no surer way of living an accelerated gamut of extreme human emotions and varied intense life experiences in a short time-frame than by trading financial instruments. This is particularly true of the futures, derivative markets, stocks trading on margin, options, and day trading. Leverage or short time ranges, magnifies everything. It shortens perceptual time, exalts emotions, magnifies fears and hopes. It is a battlefield of the mind for the courageous ones who want to test the mastery they have over themselves. A trader cannot but face the naked truth about oneself beyond the appearances he/she tries to project. It is a very humbling and often painful experience. A great mental and spiritual school. (how can we get the lesson from the blog and other sources to help us focus on what we want; a powerful school rather than reality show)

    The trader can learn to enter the “calm and stillness” of the “eye” of the storm of trading markets, metaphorically coined the “zone.” And then from that stillness, as his/her mind operates at the deep Theta level of brain, he/she goes above the emotions of the market, connects to the very intuitive level of the deep Delta level (universal Mind) and ask for help and guidance in his trading endeavors. He/she is hyper-concentrating towards everything. His/her point-directed attention is very lethargic. Thoughts and images flash by in a disconnected non-linear fashion- out of cause-and-effect. The trader is close to the causal (non-linear) realm. Time seems to slow, conscious analytical thoughts are sluggish or almost absent, emotions are profound and very creative, and the trader then learns to use his/her emotions to program for positive trading experiences where the facet of “love” or positive desire overcomes the facet of “fear” or destructive desire. At these levels (very deep Theta and Delta), which we teach you to reach easily, emotions are purer, thoughts profound, you sense probable future events (extremely high intuition as an act of knowing ) and can act upon them. You may be shown when not to trade because of highly volatile situations or because you are just not meant to profit in certain periods. You visualize and project success. You can desensitize from prior memories of losses and not be fear-conditioned by them. We have all known and experienced periods when a certain action or trade just felt right- as if it was meant to happen. For traders these are usually their most successful trades. They feel as if they just go with a flow of events prepared for them, and witness them as such. (we ight be learning to utilize holosync for all of this if we get the import of what Bill’s talking about).

    on a trade, you just “know” that it will be a winner. You are calm and relaxed about it. And most often enough, that trade enfolds as if you were to be watching a “movie reel” to perfection. This feeling of “knowing” of a successful trade is what you strive to look for and listen to. These are always your best trades. (being in tune with that part that knows what to do, especially needing to be activated durring these times of negative social mood, that you’ve mentioned previously).

    Beyond this, with our training you can always “sense” in advance the direction of a market. If the market is about to engage in a major round-about turn of substantial impact [upswing in social mood] you will most probably sense it and, depending on the techniques used, either sense its gyrations (chart) [Christopher?] or in many case be given future pivot price levels. If the next move within the trading time frame that you have chosen is more insignificant, its probability might be very “fuzzy” and quite undetermined because of the rapid change of the probabilities associated with it, and then you might just get nothing (no communication about it) and have to rely on your regular trading tools – if you decide to take that trade at all. All kind of trading methodology combinations are possible, but we strongly feel that in this present type of very unstable and violent type of trading environment that the psychological tool that we provide in order to sense the mass psychology that move the markets is a “MUST” for every savvy, experienced, and especially relatively new trader. Not having it is, in our humble opinion, tantamount to walking in a jungle a night without night-vision equipment, experience of the wilderness, and a highly developed “6th sense.” (this seems to take more awareness than I–or most people–tend to desire to develop durring these times probably unless there is a strong one).

    I’m wondering if any others have anything to say about this. I’m looking for both traders to give their two-cents here, and also people who understand more about these charted waves–like Christopher–to tell me whether this type of control over social mood is possible. Is there a sort of free will here that can be gleemed by understanding the charts and cycles, and by putting ourselves in a position of awareness around these things can we leverage these times of negative social mood more towards what we want?

    I haven’t spoken up here due mostly to my ignorance on the subject, and I’m hoping to learn more from others who might be more adept than I am at this. Please check out the site and let me know; there’s some promotional material for a course in there, however I’m curious to hear the value from others that they may get from this information (if any) or is it bunk.

    PS: I like what you’ve written, Bill, around “the shell game” in responce to post 205. It was, and continues to be, very enlightening.

  310. I’m pretty sure the markets will fluctuate.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: Oh, so now YOU’RE making predictions! How can you be so SURE??

  311. Hi

    I’ve been doing some further broadening knowledge research and today happened to note that your Mr Prechter has published a 2nd interim report/update for March, apparently an unusual event, but its only available for subscribers suchas yourself.

    Are you or any of the more knowledgable people able to let us know how his new predictions (my assumption on what they are) come into alignment with current events and/or other forecastors -who may have been more or indeed less accurate. Thank you.

    FROM BILL: These predictions are top secret. Those of us who have them will be the last people standing.

    Seriously, people pay a lot of money for his services, and it would be out of integrity for me to give away information that he sells, any more than it is honest for people to make copies of software or music (or Holosync) and give it away. Subscribe to his services and you’ll get them all. They are reasonably expensive–they are for people for whom the information is valuable enough that they are willing to pay for it.

    There are many sources of information that are free, however. Google Martin Weiss, Daily Reckoning, John Mauldin. There are many books about these subjects that are much cheaper than subscribing to these newsletters (though the newsletters are more timely).

  312. Kory says :

    Food for thought:
    Charles Darwin said the “survival of the fittest” is a central factor in the process of evolution. What exactly did he mean by that? He makes it clear in his book The Origin of Species: “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change.”

  313. I said PRETTY sure, not ABSOLUTELY sure.

    Rich

    FROM BILL: Well, okay. My bad.

  314. Rob says :

    To Kory

    I think Survival of the Fittest refers to a species ability to adapt to its environment over many generations. A species will respond by evolving, there by adapting to suit its environment in a way that is more profitable to the species survival than before it evolved.

  315. Kory says :

    Rob,
    I am looking at ‘survival of the fittest’ from a more personal sphere. If I do not use my strength and intelligence to be more responsive to change, I might stagnate. Causing my children and my children’s children to stagnate along with me. In addition, if I am not responsive to change I might lose my sense of humour in life and regress to caveman like tendencies.

  316. sherry says :

    Dear Bill

    This is a bit late in the asking…..”Why do you dispute Dr. David Hawkin’s work?”

    Thanks, if you have time to comment, I would appreciate you insights…..I thought his Power Vs Force a great book…..or is it the whole system of calibrating that you question?…….His work as a psychiatrist was brilliant…did it not earn him knighthood?

    FROM BILL: I published a rather lengthy list of reasons why in response to another post. I’ll just add that this isn’t an exhaustive list by any means. And, I do NOT want to get into a discussion of David Hawkins. He’s not worth it.

    1) Though his material is presented with a veneer of science, it is not based in science, but in his own non-scientific, non-proven (and in many cases dis-proven) theories. This is obvious to anyone who actually has a scientific education.

    His biggest silliness is the use of muscle testing, which is the basis of his whole system, and which has been proven to not work (yes, I know that many of you think it’s fantastic—I have looked through the actual scientific studies on it, and all those I read found that its predictive power was the same as random chance). James Randi has offered one million dollar if Hawkins can prove that it works. He has not done so.

    Even those who believe in kinesiology say that there is absolutely no scientific evidence that muscle testing can be used in any way as a reliable truth detector, even by those supposedly trained in it (Hawkins has no training in it, according to kinesiologists), despite Hawkins’ false claim that “peer reviewed” studies exist.

    He frequently misuses scientific terminology and concepts in his books and teachings, demonstrating a lack of scientific and mathematical understanding, from his use of logarithmic scales, to absurd and meaningless numbers plucked out of thin air (such as the energy of a loving thought being 10 to the power of minus 35 million megawatts), to the improper use of chaos theory terminology, to the common New Age use of what he calls “quantum theory” (it isn’t) to prove various spiritual propositions (all of which is pure bullshit).

    He also claims that adrenaline makes the muscle go weak during his muscle testing. However, adrenaline makes muscles stronger, ready for fight or flight–not weaker. A high school student could spot such nutty inconsistencies.

    Hawkins clearly doesn’t understand the difference between using a scientific theory as a metaphor and using it as “proof”–something I see in a lot of New Age teachers who talk a lot about quantum theory.

    Those who are not scientifically trained (his target audience) fall for all this bunk. In fact, many New Age teachers use scientific terminology to create an appearance of scientific veracity, and Hawkins is the king of such methods. When challenged by actual scientists (which has repeatedly happened, thankfully), Hawkins takes the position that his system of truth has a higher truth rating than science and so science cannot be used to determine the validity of his work (sigh). It is quite easy to fool people who have a weak (or no) understanding of science and the scientific method.

    2) Hawkins’ credentials are also suspect. His PhD in Health and Human Services is from a private unaccredited distance-learning university called Columbia Pacific University (CPU) which was closed by court order for failing to meet standards set for private universities. Big red flag.

    3) Hawkins has some questionable honors and titles, where the awarding organizations are difficult to identify. Many of his honorary titles have been modified on his website (when their bullshit nature was exposed), and some are self-styled or vanity awards. Red flag.

    4) Quite frankly, in my opinion he shows many of the qualities of a narcissistic cult leader.

    5) He frequently dismisses those who criticize his theories with the ad hominem argument (attacking the one who criticizes his work, instead of actually dealing with their criticism), stating that they “calibrate below 200”, the basic level of integrity, and so are not in a position to criticize him. Red flag.

    6) Finally, I know some people who have dealt with him personally, and they tell me he is incredibly arrogant and quite weird—something I could have guessed from reading his material.

  317. David says :

    Hi again, Bill: Any chance you can email me the piece referred to in the Gay Hendricks comment? Been hearing about Prechter’s work since 1986 from mentors but have not started taking a hard look at it until now.

    Thanks,

    Dave

    FROM BILL: You’d have to refresh my memory about what piece you’re referring to.

  318. Reece says :

    Hello all,

    I’d just like to say that Bill, you’re pretty amazing and I’ve found holosync to be extremely helpfull with meditating and even sometimes I add ‘purpose’. I just wanted to, felt It might help someone who reads this that true happiness comes from deep within and i find holosync to be a very important tool to help breakdown the negative facets of our own personality and understanding about life to radiate
    And help other people when they can truly understand what I’m saying.

    Sorry I’m a tad tired but thankyou again and I hope everyone finds themselves in a better place than they are now regardless if position.

  319. Bill says :

    Bill I saw a video about the Endgame on youtube. This guy believes deflation is coming too but gold and silver will be good investment until the derivatives market explosion happens. The video is a year and a half old but he lays out a good explanation on how all this might End.

    youtube.com/watch?v=AdPUV57eblk

    FROM BILL: In a massive deflation, which is, I think, inevitable, there will be a rush for cash. This is because cash disappears (through non-payment of debt and other deleveraging-type events) at a horrendously rapid speed. This is why “cash is king” at such times. Just as during the last near meltdown, people will probably sell gold to raise cash if they need it (they will). Overall, though, gold will be the best store of value. The cash people will need is the last gasp of the fiat money system, where the cash is really not backed by anything. For this reason, as the dust settles, gold and other truly tangible items will be “the last man standing.”

  320. Ganesh says :

    What do you think about BitCoin? Does it necessarily have to be backed by something?

    FROM BILL: BitCoin is an attempt to create a currency/method of monetary payment outside the current government-controlled system. They are trying to make it illegal, and probably will–which won’t stop this sort of thing from cropping up over and over. The powers that be don’t want people doing things outside the system. That people want to be outside the system (those that can see what is going on) is a sign of the increasing trouble and prudent people doing something to try to escape the consequences. Utimately the rulers will make pretty much everything a prudent person would do illegal. Do I think you should participate in BitCoin? I like the idea, but I’m not participating. Too few people are using it, which greatly reduces its utility.

  321. Tim Fusha says :

    Thanks for the article, it was interesting and compelling. I found my way here through Google, I will come back another time :)

  322. what’s happening bro, This 301 Moved Permanently info above is mega have you got a RSS Feed

  323. heh wao, hands dwn coolest post i’ve ever read.

  324. Irene Slovin says :

    And Bill,

    Based on what I believe…you are in exactly the right business!

    Irene

    FROM BILL: Irene, I have no idea what that is supposed to mean, but I’ll tell you this: if I posted every letter I’ve received from someone thanking me for saving their life, it would be a 1000+page post. When I speak somewhere I can’t walk 20 feet down the hall without someone rushing up to me to thank me for how I’ve helped them. And I’ve had the privilege over the years to have contributed millions of dollars to charities that help inner city children, and to have built several schools in Africa. It isn’t about fear, my dear. I have a feeling that under your contempt for “fear” you are a deeply fearful person. It’s called a shadow. Don’t disown ANY human qualities. There are serious consequences for doing that. And, given where I am in my life, and the feedback I get from the world, even with all my flaws I must be doing a few things right.

  325. Rita Wondrak says :

    Hello Bill. I have been using Holosync for the last 2 years. I am also working my way through your Principles course. Great stuff, by the way. I few months ago I found this blog and decided to read 1 post a day from the beginning. I thought that it would be a lark, but the depth of your posts has pleasantly surprised me. The last comment that you have on this post is from 4 years ago. I’m just wondering if you have anything to add to this post about the events of these last 4 years, especially since some folks like myself seem to still be reading your posts. Rita

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